Michael Busch's Transition to Leadoff Spot Indicative of Skill Set Evolution

In the Chicago Cubs' final game before the All-Star break, Craig Counsell put his emerging first baseman in the top spot in the lineup. In the two games immediately coming out of it, Michael Busch was there once again. It's likely not a permanent solution; Counsell's need to rotate new faces in leadoff has more to do with Ian Happ's struggles than a desire to inject others into the role. But, the skill set Busch flashed last year has evolved into something entirely capable of handling such duty for as long as the Cubs might need.

Busch's success in 2025 has unfolded in a very broad context but has come as the result of specific developments. Most notably, his ability to manage an approach and control the strike zone was something that became increasingly evident during his rookie year in '24. He's really dialed in that component of his game this year, though, which @Matthew Trueblood examined earlier this month. 

It's the approach that has served as the driver of Busch's success. "Success", in this case, is the reveal of an all-around hitter in a way that we maybe didn't anticipate last year. He's leading the team in average (.288) & wRC+ (159), is second in on-base percentage (.376), and is third in isolated power (.262). The same component keying his success this year (the approach) is the same one that could sustain a stint in the leadoff spot for however long the Cubs need. 

Ian Happ was able to exist at the team's top hitter purely on the merits of his own approach. However, the approach by which Happ lives manifests itself differently than that of Michael Busch. Happ relies on pure patience to create an on-base presence. His modest power has shrunk even more in '25 while his baserunning has regressed in a number of respects. What's impressive about Busch, though, is that he's able to utilize his approach to do some of the same things Happ does while, at the same time, offering much more upside. 

Happ's pitches per plate appearance this year is at 4.12, which ranks 30th in the league. Busch is at 4.01 P/PA (48th). For context, league average (per 600 plate appearances) is 3.86. Busch's overall swing rate (46.5 percent) and chase rate (27.6 percent) each check in about three percent higher than Happ. The difference in contact rate, however, is marginal. Busch's 77.0 Contact% comes in just about one percent behind Happ.

Where the two hitters differ is in their ability to parlay that approach into something of value. When Busch has the chase rate tamped down, he's become increasingly dangerous: 

It's not a complicated concept. When the chase rate is down, Busch's overall value, reflected here by wOBA, is up. In those moments where he starts to expand the zone, then the value goes down. It's a clear trend. Not an uncommon one, mind you, but one which Busch has been able to maximize by limiting those moments of zone expansion. Happ, however, doesn't experience quite the same trend:

This isn't so much an argument that Busch is a better hitter (or a better leadoff candidate) than Happ. Objectively, he's certainly the former. He could, ultimately, be the latter. Rather, the purpose is to showcase the difference between the two. Busch is able to incorporate his approach into a steady offensive output, both in power and contact. Happ, however, relies on his walk rate to prop up his output given the regression he's experienced in a handful of areas. 

In matters of the role itself, though, it's less about Happ and more about what Busch has been able to become in a short time for the Cubs. He improved the approach over the year in 2024. From May on last year, he was able to drop the strikeout rate but saw uneven outcomes. This year, he's spinning the patience into sustained outcomes. 

Because of that, Busch becomes an ideal candidate in the leadoff spot for the Cubs right now. We're not even talking about the sample, which is only three games (as of this writing). We're talking about skill set. Busch is able to provide much of the same on-base quality that Happ can, with only a slight decrease in the walks game. Where he compensates in his ability to create offense off the approach. Busch led off two of his three starts with a homer. That speaks to what he can provide in the role, for however long he serves it.