Michael Busch’s Breakout Season Now Feels Like an Outlier

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The Cubs’ season has come to an end, in disappointing fashion. Unfortunately, that word can also be used to describe the 2026 season of first baseman Michael Busch. After receiving MVP votes after an exceptional 2025 campaign, Busch took a step (or two) backward this season. There were some positives to take away from his year, but the overall numbers suggest the Cubs may have to start wondering whether last season was the beginning of something special, or simply an outlier.

In 2025, Busch hit .261 with a .343 on-base percentage and a very strong .523 slugging average. He hit 34 home runs, which ranked sixth among all National League hitters. At the time, it looked like the Cubs had a star on their hands. But a lot can change in a year. This season, Busch’s batting average dropped to .242. His on-base percentage actually climbed to .352 (thanks in large part to a significant increase in his walk rate), but he slugged just .393. For a first baseman, that's anemic.

A .745 OPS will certainly play, and with a 106 OPS+, he was still an above-average hitter this season. But it’s still a massive step backward from what Busch did a year ago, and some of the underlying numbers indicate that his production should have been even worse. Busch’s expected batting average was just .233, which puts him in the 23rd percentile among all big-league hitters. A year ago, there weren’t many hitters who punished baseballs quite like Busch did. His average exit velocity and barrel rate were both in the 90th percentile or higher, while his hard-hit rate was also in the top quartile of the league. When he got his bat on the ball, good things happened. That just wasn’t the case this season. His barrel rate dropped all the way to the 60th percentile, while both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate fell below league-average marks. He went from consistently making some of the best contact in baseball to making relatively ordinary contact, and that difference showed up in the results.

Someone like Busch, who doesn’t have the fastest bat in the world, needs to lean into his pull side to be as efficient as possible when it comes to producing power. That’s exactly what we saw from him in 2025, when both his fly-ball rate and pull rate reached career-high levels. When he was getting the ball in the air and pulling it, he was extremely dangerous. This year, though, he was getting on top of the ball more often, and his pull rate dropped to a career-low 40%. He still managed to hit 20 home runs, but it’s pretty clear when looking at the numbers that the decline in his pull-side power had a major impact on his overall production.

I've done quite a bit of bashing so far in this article, so I feel like I should note that there were some positives, too. His walk rate jumped from 9.5% to 13%, which is a significant improvement—and something that could be especially valuable if he can pair it with the power production we saw in 2025. He also played strong defense at first base, giving the Cubs value on both sides of the ball. But offensively, his 2026 season lines up much more closely with his career numbers outside of that incredible 2025 campaign.

Maybe 2025 was the real Michael Busch finally breaking out. Maybe this season was simply a down year for a player who still has plenty of room to grow. There’s really no way to know for sure right now. What we do know is that Busch showed us a very high ceiling last season. If he can get back to pulling the ball in the air like he did in 2025 while maintaining the double-digit walk rate he posted this year, there’s still "All-Star" written all over his offensive profile. But until we see him do that again, it’s fair to wonder if we’ve already seen Busch at his peak—and whether his decline phase is worthy of a locked-in lineup spot next year.