Looking Back At The Cody Bellinger Contract: Did The Cubs Sign The Right Free Agent?

With the Chicago Cubs now six games out of the final playoff position heading into Sunday’s action, FanGraphs lists their odds of making the playoffs at under one percent. I don’t think anyone can argue with that, either. Not only would they have to pass both the Mets and the Braves, but both teams also hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs, effectively putting the deficit at six games with about 20 remaining. 

With all of that said, I’d say it’s about time to shift the perspective that I write with. One quick way of doing that is looking into what this team could have done differently, from a personnel standpoint, to have had a better season. This year feels disappointing. However, it’s important to remember that FanGraphs projected them for 82.3 wins to begin with, which is about where they will end up, barring any major winning or losing streak over the last couple of weeks. This team didn’t make the playoffs because they were probably never good enough. 

Somewhat related to all of this, the San Francisco Giants and Matt Chapman agreed on a contract extension earlier this week. As you might recall, the Cubs were connected to Chapman this past offseason before eventually agreeing to bring Cody Bellinger back. Their interest in Chapman was most likely an insurance policy in case they didn’t come to terms with Bellinger, but at the time, it certainly felt like the Cubs would most likely bring one of the two in to help bolster the lineup. 

In January, I compared the two players to help understand who might be a better acquisition for the Cubs. It was a fascinating comparison. Bellinger had a fantastic year last season, thanks to overperformance on fly balls. Chapman had a bit of a down year, thanks to underperformance on fly balls. Bellinger got much better results than Chapman, but Chapman had better-expected stats because Bellinger was pulling fly balls while Chapman was not. Ultimately, I concluded that Chapman might be the better investment. Looking at this year, it’s clear the Cubs made the wrong decision here:

Now, one of the WAR differences is health. Bellinger has had two separate stints on the injured list, resulting in about 100 more plate appearances for Chapman. The offensive results haven’t been drastically different, but Chapman makes up for that in defense, which is a huge part of the equation. With Pete Crow-Armstrong seizing the center field role for the foreseeable future, Bellinger has been playing right field. He has significantly less value in right, where defense isn’t as valuable and better offensive players typically reside. The fit was always a bit tricky with the potential emergence of PCA. 

Which brings me back to the decision this past offseason to re-sign Bellinger and not bring in Chapman. I’m sure part of that decision was wanting to give a defensive home to Christopher Morel. That did not pay off at all. That ultimately resulted in the trade for Isaac Paredes, which, to this point, has also not paid off at all. The Cubs are 29th in baseball in fWAR from their third basemen this season. The only team worse is the lowly White Sox. The Giants, Chapman’s current team, are second in baseball. 

I’ll admit, I was happy when the Cubs brought Bellinger back—thrilled, even. Having him back for just one season would give the Cubs an excellent insurance policy should PCA prove he wasn’t ready or would be a bust. I wrote as much here. Clearly, I was wrong, and so were the Cubs. 

The ramifications of this one decision are fascinating. Christopher Morel would likely still be a Cub in a part-time role. Isaac Paredes would not be on the team. They would probably be closer to a playoff spot. And they might still feel the ramifications of that decision next season if Cody Bellinger opts into his $27.5m salary. The Cubs probably hope he doesn’t. The Giants, on the other hand, gave Chapman a well-earned extension to make sure he’s back.