With Cubs "Working Hard" on a Jesús Luzardo Trade, Let's Consider the Ramifications

If the Cubs have their way, they will complete a trade with the Miami Marlins for left-handed starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo—and soon. Multiple reports from well-connected Chicago baseball reporter Bruce Levine in the last few days have connected the team to Luzardo, and sources confirm that these talks are ongoing. It seems like a good moment to run down what's appealing to the team about Luzardo, and what this would mean for the rest of their winter.

Firstly, if you missed the piece I wrote yesterday morning about Luzardo's recent injury history, rough 2024, and needed adjustments, you can still catch up here. In brief: Luzardo is a fascinating fastball-changeup-slider guy, and although the Marlins are associated with pitching in the minds of many based on recent successes in scouting and acquiring good starters (Sandy Alcántara, Zac Gallen, Pablo López, etc.), they seem to have failed in really developing Luzardo into the best pitcher he can be.

Luzardo would be the fourth lefty starter in the Cubs' rotation, joining Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and free-agent signee Matthew Boyd. The chances of ending up with four lefties in a rotation constructed without regard to handedness, based on the proportion of the population of big-league starters who throw with each hand, are right around 1.0%. This is no accident, and part of the reason may be a systematic handedness effect at Wrigley Field, as I documented earlier this offseason. The Cubs are building a rotation full of southpaws, intentionally and consciously, and they're probably wise to do so.

That does come with some knock-on effects, though. For instance, the more left-handed pitchers you use, the more right-handed batters you're likely to face. That makes the left side of your infield defense especially vital, so if the Cubs do turn to rookie Matt Shaw as their regular third baseman in 2025, they'd better feel very, very good about his glove at that position. Reports suggest that they do, so all is well there, but it's an interesting wrinkle. It might make them incrementally more likely to go out and sign a strong defensive infielder like Josh Rojas in the next few weeks, knowing so many grounders will be heading that way. By contrast, facing a lot of right-handed batters makes your right fielder more important than your left fielder, defensively. Good thing, then, that the Cubs dealt for Kyle Tucker, a huge defensive upgrade over Seiya Suzuki. It also makes it a tiny bit easier to put Suzuki in left field, some days, at the expense of Ian Happ, who can DH more.

This deal would be a big-time embrace of variance on the part of the Cubs, just as signing Boyd was. This is the kind of upside play in which the Dodgers have specialized for years. The Cubs jumping into that kind of risk-taking is exhilarating. It comes with a frisson of nervousness, because the chances that Luzardo can't get everything sorted back out or that he continues to struggle with injuries are a little too high for comfort. In that way, it would also be a leap of faith by the team, trusting its existing organizational pitching depth—guys like Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, Brandon Birdsell, and more, who wouldn't be in the Opening Day starting five if Luzardo were in the fold but who would certainly end up being called upon over the course of the season.

The deal is not done, and not yet imminent, to my eye. That could change almost instantly from here, though, because of the stage the teams have reached in negotiations. It wouldn't be the highest-aiming move the team could still make, but it would leave a little more of their powder dry than other moves might, and the Cubs are still in a mode of trying to create value, as much as acquiring it. Luzardo's potential to improve under better tutelage is a point of extreme interest for the team, and might make him the apple of their eyes as they try to leave themselves flexibility for the rest of the offseason.