Jesús Luzardo Trade Rumors: What the Cubs See In Him, and What He's Worth

It's been clear all along that the Cubs intended to add another starting pitcher this winter, even after signing Matthew Boyd to join a rotation that included three established veterans and a bevy of younger options. Now, in the wake of the team's blockbuster deal for Kyle Tucker and the shadow of the likely Cody Bellinger trade, the team seems to be closing in on that higher-end acquisition.

Names circulating include Luis Castillo of the Mariners and San Diego ace Dylan Cease, but on Saturday, 670 The Score's Bruce Levine brought forth another name that had long been in the mix: Marlins southpaw Jesús Luzardo.

Luzardo, 27, has two years of team control remaining. He's often mentioned as a starter with big upside, because he's a lefty who (at his best) throws 97 miles per hour with a plus changeup. However, he's available not only because Miami is in the midst of a bone-scraping rebuild, but because he's been inconsistent and (worse) often hurt throughout his career. He pitched 179 innings with a 3.58 ERA and a 28.1% strikeout rate in 2023. In 2024, he managed just 12 starts, with an ERA of 5.00. His strikeout rate plunged to 21.2%, and (worse) his average fastball was 95.2 miles per hour, down from 96.7 in 2023.

The Marlins and Cubs are uniquely perfect potential trade partners, because Miami is still working its way toward a nadir in its sudden reconstruction and Chicago has exactly what the Fish lack: high-upside, cost-controlled young hitters, including ones whose MLB service time clocks have not yet even begun to tick. Whereas Miami once had a clear surplus of exciting starters, though, their whole rotation is now populated by players with notable warts. Sandy Alcántara is the least complicated case, but he'll just be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2025. The rest all come with some degree of uncertainty, whether it centers on performance, injury, or both.

It's probably still Luzardo who carries the most promise. The 2024 season was just a setback. Fortunately, the latter fact means the Cubs should be able to acquire him at a non-premium price, but the former could make him worth that splash—if the Cubs believe they can keep him healthy and get the best out of him. Let's figure out what the latter looks like, and whether the former is compatible with it.

Luzardo's fastball lost some zip in 2024, but his two main secondary offerings—his slider and changeup—each degraded, too. His Stuff+ and StuffPro, the two leading pitch-modeling grading systems, each indicated that those pitches had gotten worse, based on movement, release point, and location. Here are his movement profiles for the last two seasons, side by side.

Right away, you can see that Luzardo's fastball had a bit more rising action and a bit less arm-side run in 2024. The same was true of his changeup and sinker. Glance down at the lower lefthand corner of each image, and you can see a partial explanation of that: Luzardo raised his arm angle slightly this season. The adjustment was not for the better.

You can see why the Marlins might have wanted Luzardo to raise that angle. Low-slot lefties often aren't able to live well in the starting rotation, against lineups that can be stacked with right-handed batters to neutralize them. Vertical profiles tend to work better for southpaw starters, and higher arm slots tend to produce those pitch shapes. The thing with Luzardo, though, is that he's a natural pronator. You can see that in the movement profiles above. Even his slider doesn't move to the glove side the way many pitchers' do. His four-seamer, sinker and changeup, by contrast, all move more to the arm side than do most pitches from hurlers with similar velocities and release points.

If that's your natural movement signature, you might as well lean into it, with the lower slot Luzardo used to employ. The Cubs would certainly work with him to keep the release angle down, and they'd probably integrate his sinker more, too.

Bringing his sinker along is especially key, not only because it suits his natural mechanics, but because of the way he attacks the zone. Here's his pitch location profile for his top four offerings for 2024.

Notice the way his four-seamer primarily pounds the third-base side of the plate, inside on a righty and away from a lefty. Given the movement on it and the arm angle at which Luzardo works, that's not what you'd automatically expect, which is one reason why he's effective. Despite a very different natural fastball shape, he achieves a similar effect to fellow southpaw Justin Steele. But this quirk also means he has to lean on the sinker to attack the arm side of the plate with heat. Given his current pitch mix, as it played in 2024, that's not essential—but it could become so, as part of the team's plans to optimize him if they brought him aboard.

Luzardo was better at keeping the sinker on that arm-side edge in 2023, rather than letting it stray over the plate. He also did better with his slider, which got to the lower inside corner to a righty (away from a lefty) more often. From the lower slot, he's capable of working with those pitches to force lefties into uncomfortable at-bats, and he can get righties thinking more about covering the whole plate, too. If the four-seamer will dominate inside to righties and away from lefties, the sinker is the pitch that can keep everyone honest and resolve the problems he's had with hard contact recently.

This stuff doesn't automatically work, once conceived of, and the Marlins' reputation for pitcher development is strong. Here's the twist: some of that reputation is unearned. They're excellent at scouting pitchers, but not necessarily good at helping them unlock their talent. They traded Pablo López to the Twins two winters ago, and he quickly got better—especially by adopting a sweeper, which is exactly what I think the Cubs might encourage Luzardo to do.

Ace upside is probably too generous a label to apply to Luzardo, but he can be right in line with Steele and Shota Imanaga, at his best. If the Cubs could keep him healthy, he'd make their rotation one of the best in the National League. For that, giving up James Triantos would not be too high a price. However, if the Marlins insist upon getting Owen Caissie or even Kevin Alcántara in the deal instead, the team might need to maintain the resolve to walk away. Luzardo is a big fish, but there are others in the sea, too.