Jed Hoyer's Press Conference Sends Mixed Signals About Team's Understanding of Its Star Search

If you were hoping for something of value to escape the lips of Jed Hoyer on Tuesday, then I’m not sure you’ve ever heard Jed Hoyer speak. Much of the day’s end-of-year presser involved general statements about the disappointment of the year, vague information on player health, and some word salad about needing to outperform projections. 

As frustrating as it can be to listen to Hoyer speak coming off the candor of the Theo Epstein reign atop the Chicago Cubs front office, that latter bit is sure to strike as particularly infuriating. In essence, Hoyer noted that each team in this year’s playoff field has at least one five-win player, with that player outperforming projections to reach the mark. I’m oversimplifying the quote, but Hoyer’s oversimplifying the concept and denying reality. That’s worse, right? It seems worse.

We at North Side Basseball have not been quiet about the Cubs’ need for a legitimate star. They’re a team comprised of complementary bats. That’s no fault of their own. They’re not built to be upper-tier run producers. There are legitimately good offensive pieces throughout the lineup, however streaky their actual output may be. But lacking that true catalyst in the lineup is what stretches their bouts of offensive woes from weeks to months. I say months, because Hoyer very astutely pointed out that seemingly the entire team fell into a season-ruining slump across at least May and June--as if we were unaware.

Ultimately, the major issue with Hoyer’s sentiment about outperforming projections is that it confirms the fears of fans--ones that had already been realized throughout much of the 2024 season. The Chicago Cubs were relying on upside. They needed upper-percentile production from throughout their lineup in order to make their roster, as constructed, actually work. They built a lineup on hope, more than any tangible quality. That’s a problem, and given what Hoyer communicated on Tuesday, it’s a deep-rooted one.

Let’s talk about Hoyer’s assertion regarding playoff teams, five-win players, and outperforming projections, because there is at least a kernel of truth there from a broad perspective. Yes, you need elite baseball players to be an elite baseball team. Major League Baseball history is merely sprinkled with tales of sum-of-their-parts clubs that have been successful. The majority of great teams were built to win with great players.

However, where did those players that Hoyer references come from? Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and William Contreras were all acquired via trade. Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper were signed in free agency. Bobby Witt Jr. was drafted No. 2 overall. Even if you wanted to go a bit farther down the leaderboard and take some injury context into account, you’ve got Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Trea Turner. Free agency, trade, trade, and free agency. Each player listed was either acquired via front-office aggression or, in the case of Witt, features a certain level of prospect pedigree.

I’m not so blinded by 2024 frustration (which is, admittedly, increasing as I write this) as to not acknowledge that there are exceptions here. Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Merrill weren’t top-five picks. Yordan Alvarez was acquired by Houston before he even logged a minor-league game with the Dodgers. Willy Adames (not a five-win guy, but darn close) was acquired before his real and sustained breakout in Milwaukee. But you’re also talking about some very specific organizations with a track record of getting their players to realize their potential. 

Which brings us to another issue with Hoyer’s empty truisms: the Cubs haven’t done that. Perhaps it’s unreasonable to have expected it to happen thus far. But I’m also not so sure it is. We have myriad examples of 2021 and 2022 draftees already performing as MLB regulars. Some of them are on star-level trajectories. Despite the high volume of intriguing position players, we haven’t seen anyone whom the team developed entirely internally break down the door to the big leagues. More specifically, they haven’t done it to the level that Hoyer describes. A regular role doesn’t even seem like it’s on the horizon for this group of enticing positional prospects, let alone a star-level breakthrough.

Are we supposed to believe that it’s in the tank there somewhere, on the way? Should it be considered a believable scenario, deployed as justification for not pursuing legitimate offensive talent in the way that many of their National League counterparts already have? There’s no solid evidence to support buying the hope that Hoyer was trying to sell you on Tuesday.

The specific issue here is stars. That’s what Hoyer was talking about. The team can develop quality position players (and probably even better pitchers). But the idea that you need a certain caliber of player to be postseason-bound with any kind of regularity is demonstrably true, and the cause to believe that this front office can acquire or develop such players is scant. 

Because you need to do one of two things. You either need to acquire upper-tier players via trades or free agency, or you need to develop them with robust organizational processes. You need to be willing to trade prospects or spend actual dollars. Hoyer and company have proven far too conservative in their pursuit of that level of player in any context (we’re not talking about the Dansby Swansons of the world, or a trade for Isaac Paredes here; the bar we're talking about is above their heads) and we haven’t seen evidence of the latter. The Phillies and Dodgers and Brewers are running circles around them on both sides of the equation.

Of course, none of this is new. We knew this about Hoyer before he opened his mouth on Tuesday. What we don’t know is how much of that is attributable to behind-the-scenes budget constraints. Frankly, though, it doesn’t matter. This is a major-market baseball team with a recent history of success. They reset to build up their farm and get their books healthy. They’ve done that. The next step, however, is going to require Hoyer to step much farther outside of his comfort zone–whether with his prospects or his bosses' money–than he might be comfortable doing.

And that, dear reader, is the problem here.