How Justin Turner Fits and Can Contribute for Chicago Cubs, Defensively

With the Chicago Cubs bringing in Justin Turner on a one-year deal Tuesday, there will be an immediate reaction from certain circles that label him as “Matt Shaw insurance.” After all, this was a pivot after the team failed to sign Alex Bregman. Given that the newest member of the Boston Red Sox would have been just that for the Cubs (in a couple of different ways) their pivot should offer much the same kind of value, right?

It’s a notion that isn’t entirely misguided, on the surface. If one hasn’t been tuned into Justin Turner’s career, then one is still likely to assume he’s a corner bat capable of manning third base as needed, while also serving as a supplementary piece at first base and in the designated hitter spot. But while it’s understandable to maintain that perception of Turner, it’s just hopelessly out of date.

In his career, Turner has over 7,800 innings at third base to his name. He has roughly 850 on the other side of the infield, and a smattering of innings on the middle infield (including 49 perhaps somewhat notable frames at the keystone in 2023). Of the massive amount of time he’s manned the hot corner, only 90 of those innings have come in the last two seasons. Of the 850 at first base, 616 have come over that same span.

Turner hasn’t turned in an above-average defensive season at third base since 2019. In his limited time at third, he’s fallen below the average line in each season since, regardless of your metric of choice. He’s been at least serviceable at first base, where each metric has lingered just around average (if not slightly above). 

Even if the glove proved capable, the arm is a virtual zero at this point. Since 2020, Statcast has Turner’s arm strength ranked 565th of 705 players. In 2024, specifically (albeit spending time primarily at a position that required fewer, easier throws), he ranked 269th out of 288 names. There simply isn’t anything to justify placing Turner at third base at this point in his career. 

Of course, we watched Christopher Morel play third for the majority of last season. By Outs Above Average, Cub third basemen ranked 29th in the league in the quality of their defense (-15). Only Cincinnati was worse. Craig Counsell will not use that as a justification to throw Turner out for extended stretches. That said, he'll probably be available to play the spot for parts of games when an injury happens or chaos reigns. He has experience, and minimizing the time he spends there should help to mitigate any negative factors that could be wrought by his poor performance at the position.

Turner will serve as the primary backup to Michael Busch at first base. He’ll offer some protection against particularly tough left-handed pitchers. He’ll slot in as the team’s designated hitter whenever Seiya Suzuki finds himself in an outfield corner. And he’ll, on occasion, slide over to third base when the circumstances are exactly right.

The opportunities for that latter scenario will be rare. Because Justin Turner is barely a third baseman anymore. He may not be at all. But regardless of how we want to define that descriptor in matters of the Cubs’ new veteran, it’s fairly clear that this move will have almost zero bearing on Shaw. It's a move built to boost the club's offense; their defense will have to figure itself out.