Cubs Have (Effectively) Three-Game Cushion Over Padres, Inside Track on Top Wild Card Berth

In a blink, it seems, the Cubs have raced out to a four-game lead over the Padres for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. Chicago had just a one-game edge on San Diego going into the long weekend, but they took two out of three from the Rockies in Denver—while the Padres lost a series to the lowly Twins in Minnesota. Now, thanks to their big comeback Monday, the Cubs have taken two straight from Atlanta to start the week, while the Padres have lost twice to the Orioles. Each team has played two straight bottom-feeders, but the Cubs are 4-1, while the Padres are 1-4. That's flipped the script for the fight between the two to finish the season with home-field advantage for what looks like an almost inevitable Wild Card Series showdown.

Practically speaking, the Cubs' lead is only three games. It's four in the standings at this moment, but the teams split their six games early this season. The second tiebreaker between teams is intradivisional record, and for the moment, the two are tied in that department, too. Each is 24-18 against their division rivals, with 10 more games to play.

For the Cubs, those 10 come in the form of a seven-game road trip to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in the middle of the month, and a three-game series to close out the season against the Cardinals. For the Padres, it means a whopping seven games against the Rockies and a season-ending set against the Diamondbacks, at home. That's a fairly encouraging run-in for each side, but those games with Colorado make it easier for the Padres. In any scenario in which the two teams end the season tied, the Padres will almost certainly have finished with a better intradivisional record, too, so effectively, the Cubs need to stay one game ahead of them to have home field come September 30.

That's a reasonable thing to hope for, though far from a guarantee. After Wednesday's finale against the Orioles, the Padres' schedule fills in around those division games as follows:

• 3 vs. Reds
• 3 @ Mets
• 3 @ White Sox
• 3 vs. Brewers

Meanwhile, around those three remaining series with their divisional also-rans, the Cubs get:

• 3 vs. Nationals
• 3 @ Suburban Atlanta
• 3 vs. Rays
• 3 vs. Mets

You can, loosely, cancel out the Mets series, and the Reds and the Rays are close enough in quality and peskiness to expect each team to do about the same thing across those six games. There's no clear schedule advantage either way. Because the Padres' overall slate is quite easy, they've got a shot to go 14-9 or so even without getting scorching hot. To hold them, off, then, the Cubs have to go at least 11-12. That should be doable.

This week's wins have been huge, but the Cubs have to take care of business the rest of the way. With the division race essentially over, the goal has to be to ensure that the season doesn't end at some other park, without bunting being hung at Wrigley Field. That objective is within reach now, thanks to a great recovery from last week's sweep in San Francisco. It's just not a sure thing yet.