Cubs Free Agent Target Tracker: Blake Snell

We’ve taken a look at most of the top pitchers in free agency already this offseason. Each of them present some combination of an elite track record, a very high price tag, and the daunting proposition of paying a pitcher deep into his 30s. Blake Snell is no different. He’s a 31-year-old southpaw with two Cy Young awards to his name. In all three of his career stops, he’s been a well-above-average pitcher. Yet, he feels like the furthest reach of any of the market’s aces for the Cubs.

Snell’s career has been up-and-down to this point, with absurd highs (one of only seven pitchers to have won a Cy Young in both leagues), and middling lows (4.06 ERA in 285 ⅔ innings from 2019-21). However, he’s found the next gear over the past three seasons, with a 2.82 ERA (2.98 FIP) in 412 innings between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. His 32.5% strikeout rate is among the top marks in the league in that window, as is his .191 batting average against. He’s also done a significantly better job in recent years in limiting the long ball, and his home run percentage (e.g., percentage of all plate appearances in which he allowed a homer) was down to a career-low 1.4% in 2024. Though he obviously benefited from playing in spacious Oracle Park, his home run rates were also down across the board in his final few seasons in San Diego.

Snell threw his four-seam fastball 46% of the time last year, utilizing a changeup, curveball, and slider for the other half of his arsenal. Considering he’s also made 19 or more starts in every non-pandemic season of his career (and has eclipsed 100 innings in seven consecutive full seasons), he looks the part as the perfect addition for any team in need of a No. 1 starter. Plus, even if his profile isn’t without blemishes, unlike other free-agent aces—namely, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried—Snell doesn’t come attached to the qualifying offer this offseason, by virtue of having declined it following the 2023 season.

So, why is a pitcher of this caliber not a seamless fit in Chicago? Well, for one, they already have lefties Justin Steele (3.07 ERA in 134 2/3 innings in 2024) and Shota Imanaga (2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings) under team control for the next three seasons. Righties Javier Assad (3.73 in 147 innings) and Jameson Taillon (3.27 ERA in 165 ⅓ innings) are steady middle-of-the-rotation options with multiple years left in arbitration (Assad) or on their contracts (Taillon), as well. 

With those four entrenched, young arms like Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Cade Horton will get the first crack at winning the fifth starter job out of spring training. Brandon Birdsell and Hayden Wesneski will also be in the discussion, and the Cubs figure to add a minor-league free agent to the mix. (Brad Keller continues to be an obvious fit.) There’s a promising combination of depth and upside littering the pitching staff, though of course, a team can never have too many starting pitchers. That certainly doesn't preclude strengthening the depth chart from the top down, but the expense associated with doing so might be more substantial than the famously conservative Hoyer prefers to accept.

Snell’s market is, unsurprisingly, moving quickly. He reportedly met with the Red Sox and Dodgers this week, and remains in talks with the Giants and new President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey. After being denied the long-term deal he felt he deserved last offseason, Snell is surely looking to sign a lucrative contract early this winter, and by all accounts, the Red Sox appear to be the most aggressive bidder for his services.

Other teams with top-of-the-rotation needs—the Orioles (if they lose Burnes), the Mets, and the Padres (sans Joe Musgrove), to name a few—will also have a say in the matter. Snell could feasibly land a contract in the same range as Carlos Rodón did a few years back (six years, $162 million), which will push smaller-market pursuers to the periphery of the discussion.

The Cubs are returning a lion's share of their roster from last year, meaning they don’t have an astronomical amount of payroll space available. They have room to add at least one non-Juan Soto free agent, but Snell probably isn’t the guy they’re going to spend that money on, even if he is as good as anyone else on the market. Still, the team would only benefit from adding a frontline arm. A 1-2-3 punch of Snell, Steele, and Imanaga would be able to stand up to any pitching staff in baseball.

It remains to be seen how the Cubs choose to allocate their finite resources in a crucial offseason, but there would be worse ways than on the two-time Cy Young award winner.