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This is a companion piece to another I wrote regarding the Cubs’ modus operandi of sticking close to their internal player valuations. There, I was fair and holistic, analyzing how the organization-wide patience has both helped and hurt the Cubs in the past and present. This follow-up, however, is a condemnation of the Cubs for their inflexibility and unwillingness to adapt to the baseball landscape around them.
Depending on whom you consult, the proverb “patience is a virtue” dates to at least the 1300s, and perhaps as far back as the fifth century (from the epic poem, Psychomachia). That little history lesson may not be entirely relevant to the Chicago Cubs of Major League Baseball in the year 2024, but it is a useful reminder that, in most disciplines in life, patience is a good quality to have.
Sports are not like most disciplines. When the monetary value of the dollar increases rapidly in the real world, it skyrockets in the sphere of athletics. Valuations of sports teams long ago left the stratosphere, now entering territory that feels as much imaginary as merely gaudy.
| Year |
Value of Chicago Cubs
|
| 2003 | $335 million |
| 2013 | $1 billion |
| 2023 | $4.1 billion |
Shohei Ohtani just signed a contract worth $700 million (your jokes about deferrals are appreciated), and then the same team that signed hhim turned around and handed Tyler Glasnow $136 million and Yoshinobu Yamamoto $325 million. Making “smart” deals is good business, but refusing to rescale your budget as the market shifts is not.
In a vacuum, it’s easy to make a case that none of those three players are worth the money the Dodgers gave them. Ohtani’s pitching future is in doubt after a second Tommy John surgery, Glasnow has never thrown more than 120 innings in a year, and Yamomoto just earned the most expensive contract for a pitcher in MLB history even though he’s never thrown a pitch in the league before. That’s an obscene amount of risk on a $1.15 billion investment.
Now, in the same breath, take a look at every roster in the National League. There isn’t a single team that can compete with the raw star power of the Dodgers, and only the Atlanta Braves deserve to even be mentioned in the same conversation of the NL’s true hegemon. Yes, the Dodgers have won the division every year since 2012 (besides 2021) and only won the World Series once (during the pandemic season), but what they’ve done should be the goal of every team: putting together an exceptionally competitive roster.
Naturally, this is a good place for one of Jed’s favorite disclaimers: winning the offseason does not guarantee winning the season. In an interview with The Athletic before the Winter Meetings this year, Hoyer explained his approach.
“As I’ve said a lot of times over the years, winning the offseason is probably more curse than blessing. Cody Bellinger wasn’t exactly a move that people were lauding tremendously last year, and it was probably one of the best free-agent signings on the market," he said. "You just don’t know where the best deals are going to come from. Certainly, there are immensely talented players on the market, but I think if you go in thinking it’s one of those guys or bust, you can make some really bad long-term decisions.”
That attitude has helped the Cubs avoid onerous deals that clog up the payroll, like Anthony Rendon on the Angels or Carlos Rodón on the Yankees. It’s also the reason the Cubs began last season with Eric Hosmer, Luis Torrens, and Trey Mancini eating starts at first base and designated hitter, which probably cost them a couple of games in a year where they fell one game shy of the last Wild Card berth.
There’s still a number of good players available, to be sure. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shota Imanaga are a trio of lefties with high-end starter upside. Josh Hader, David Robertson, and Jordan Hicks are a few late-game relievers with a track record of being a closer. Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and J.D. Martinez have the power and pedigree that could help transform the Cubs lineup, and each of them play positions at which the Cubs desperately need reinforcements.
In a vacuum, signing any of those guys would make a lot of sense for the Cubs. But baseball doesn’t happen in a vacuum. There are other teams bidding for these players' services, each of which are only getting more antsy as each talented player comes off the board. And in a year in which the NL Central is wide open, the Cubs have done absolutely nothing to establish themselves as the cream of the crop.
The Cubs can continue to be patient. In all likelihood, they will. Winning the offseason doesn’t guarantee winning the actual season, after all. But while the Dodgers and Braves can rest on their laurels, armed with as much leverage and talent as any organization in baseball, the Cubs will be forced to scour the remains of the market, battling it out in the trenches with other teams growing as desperate as they are.
And they only have themselves to blame.
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