Craig Counsell Has Unlocked A Special Tandem In the Middle of the Cubs' Lineup

With a bit of an uneven start to the 2026 season, there's been some attention building around the Chicago Cubs' lineup and Craig Counsell's construction of it. It's doubtless that his choices thus far, some of which have drawn ire from subsections of the fanbase, have been predominantly informed by the absence of Seiya Suzuki. Regardless of those particulars and how things could shift upon Suzuki's return, it's clear that there's one portion of this iteration of the team's lineup that is working exactly the way it's supposed to. 

As of this writing, each lineup penned by Counsell has featured Pete Crow-Armstrong batting fourth and Nico Hoerner directly behind him in the fifth spot. The returns for each player have been solid within a small sample so far; Crow-Armstrong is reaching base at a .333 clip with an improved walk rate, while Hoerner has a pair of doubles to his credit and an even split between his walk and strikeout rates. We're working with minuscule samples, and neither player really profiles for the spot in which they're currently hitting. Crow-Armstrong doesn't have the typical makeup of a clean-up hitter even following a 30-homer campaign in 2025, and Hoerner's contact-centric skill set isn't one you'd typically find batting in the five spot.

However. it's the way one plays off of the other that is a really tantalizing thought for the starting nine moving forward. 

As much variability as still exists within Crow-Armstrong's offensive skill set, there's at least one thing of which one can be assured: reliability on the basepaths. Crow-Armstrong is armed with elite sprint speed but also a level of instinct between 90-foot sections of the infield dirt. His 29.5 feet-per-second was both above league average and in the 96th percentile in 2025, while his baserunning acumen scored high marks as well. 

FanGraphs' baserunning metric, BsR, checked in at 6.7 for Crow-Armstrong last year. That comprehensive metric measures on-base skills through a blend of steals, double play avoidance, and advancement on the bases (all weighted and measured against expectancy in a variety of contexts). A 6.7 figure doesn't quite classify as "excellent" in the eyes of the metric, though it falls between that and "great." 

The same can be said of Statcast's Runner Runs, wherein baserunning performance is measured primarily within taking extra bases. Here is where Crow-Armstrong falls in that respect: 

In terms of the broad metric, Crow-Armstrong's four Runner Runs pegged him ninth in the league among qualifiers in 2025. What's unique about his case is that the attempted advances against the estimated attempt, the latter of which measures what the average runner might attempt in that same situation. In the advance attempt rate, Crow-Armstrong ranks 20th. The estimated attempt rank, however, ranks 190th. That leaves his attempt rate above average as the 12th-highest among that group. 

There's plenty of nuance within all of these baserunning metrics, but the simplified version is Runner Runs measures the ability to take extra bases. Crow-Armstrong is aggressive on the bases but has the skill set to make him successful in doing so. That'll play anywhere in the lineup. Having Hoerner directly behind him, however, is a way for the Cubs to unlock the best version of that aggression. 

In Hoerner, the Cubs have a bat that lived in the 99th percentile in both whiff and strikeout rate last year. His contact rate, at 89.8 percent, ranked fourth in the league among qualifiers. Within all of that contact, only Luis Arráez hit more singles than Hoerner's 138. Even better is that with runners on, Hoerner's .328 average ranked fifth. Not a ton of that action came with Crow-Armstrong on base in front of him, though. He spent much of 2025 hitting fourth or seventh while Hoerner was operating in the sixth or seventh spot. Having the two back-to-back has the potential to unlock a certain level of run production that has to be enticing for Counsell.

If Crow-Armstrong can reach first base (or second. given that he ranked 11th in the league in doubles last year), then you're looking at any number of first-and-third situations at various stages of a game by virtue of Hoerner hitting behind him. If he's on second, then you're creating more immediate run-scoring opportunities. There's also an aesthetic appeal to all of this. Watching Pete Crow-Armstrong run the bases is one of the great joys in this game, and there's something special about Nico Hoerner's old-school contact profile. The two working in conjunction with one another is as much of a feast for the eyes as it is a boon to run-scoring opportunities. 

Either way, the value of having one of the game's elite contact hitters behind one of its top baserunners cannot be overstated. The two were more akin to ships passing in the night last year, but have the opportunity to be something paramount to the offensive output of the Cubs in 2026.