Chicago Cubs 2025 Position Analysis: First Base

What a difference a year makes. The first base position on the North Side was extremely uncertain ahead of the 2024 season. The Chicago Cubs had gone plug-and-play in the two years following Anthony Rizzo’s deadline departure. The 2022 group was led by Alfonso Rivas’ 81 games at the spot, with a smattering of Frank Schwindel, P.J. Higgins, and Patrick Wisdom behind him. 

The succeeding team in ’23 wasn’t terribly improved. They saw a hodgepodge of Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, and (eventually, courtesy of injury) Cody Bellinger rotate through. In total, seven different players logged at least a dozen appearances at first base. There were some Pete Alonso rumors at one point, but the position itself lived almost entirely in the abstract given the excessive turnover and lack of notable prospects in the wake of Rizzo’s departure.

Enter Michael Busch. 

A castoff of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ crowded farm system, Busch was a bat without a position during his days as part of their organization. The Cubs entrenched him at first base from the jump and the results were… actually quite good. His bat was uneven, but the approach matured as the season wore on. Perhaps more importantly (given the offensive pedigree already possessed), his defense improved as the season progressed. He ultimately finished as an above-average defender.  

Busch’s presence leaves no doubt as to the immediate future of the position. He’s under team control through 2027 and has added muscle in pursuit of additional power. Beyond him, however, things get a little bit murky.

CUBS FIRST BASEMEN AT A GLANCE

Starter: Michael Busch
Backup: Justin Turner
Depth: Jon Berti
Prospects: Jonathon Long, Moises Ballesteros

Cubs fWAR Ranking Last Year: 11th (2.2)
Cubs fWAR Projection This Year: 2.0

THE GOOD

There’s stability here now. That is perhaps the most important thing about Busch’s emergence in ’24. And while he was already a quality offensive prospect upon arrival, he showcased maturity as the year trudged on.

After peaking in May, Busch’s K% dropped in each succeeding month. He closed the year with his lowest rate of the season, at 20.9 percent in September. With the exception of August (97), he was above average in each individual month by wRC+. Even with brutal batted ball luck (.212 BABIP) in September, he still posted a 117 figure and put down his highest ISO (.243) of the campaign. He capped the season on a high note, demonstrating enough growth as to not even make the position a conversation over the winter after so much uncertainty in the few previous years.

The next steps for Busch are smaller components within the overall offensive profile. He posted upper-percentile chase, walk, and barrel rates. But he also sat in the 28th percentile in Whiff% and 46th in Hard-hit%. So, while he was making mostly good swing decisions, his contact quality was suboptimal. His swing also sat in the 24th percentile in bat speed. You can live with the whiffs not coming down if it means the added muscle will contribute to higher-end driving of the baseball. And if the Cubs can get that out of him, even at the expense of the overall contact rate, there’s likely another level to be reached here.

THE BAD

Prior to the Cubs’ signing Justin Turner, there were questions about the depth here. His addition, however, changes the calculus at the position. A career third baseman, Turner has largely been seen only at first in the last two years. His advanced approach — even with a sharp decline in his power output — should be a boon for several players on the roster, including Busch. He also provides a decent enough safety net should Busch face any sort of regression or injury. 

Given that, it’s difficult to pinpoint an exact weakness within the first base position. Longer-term, you’re obviously banking on Busch being a dude in the lineup even beyond 2027. Jonathon Long has a strong offensive profile, but likely isn’t the defender that Busch is. Moises Ballesteros may be forced over to first by virtue of his defensive trajectory as a catcher. 

Outside of those long-term, abstract possibilities, you’re looking at a position that finally has some certainty to it. 

THE BOTTOM LINE

This is Michael Busch’s spot until it isn’t. While a hole at third base and a potential trade of Nico Hoerner prompted some brief discussion of his athleticism moving him elsewhere (even if on a temporary basis), the additional strength and consistent month-to-month improvement makes him a fascinating player to project as we creep closer to the 2025 season.