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The 2023 season was a transitional year at the catcher position for the Chicago Cubs in so many ways. After penciling Willson Contreras in as the primary starter at the position for the previous seven seasons, the team was finally forced to go in a different direction, emphasizing things like defense, framing, game-calling, and the ability to work with pitchers over the offensive production that someone like Contreras offers. Not only were they moving on from a franchise icon who helped them win a World Series, but the shape of the production from that position was also going to look very different.
While Conteras initially had some road bumps in adjusting to catching the pitchers with his new team, the St. Louis Cardinals, he still produced from a raw numbers standpoint. As a catcher, the former Cub had a 139 wRC+ and produced 2.5 WAR in just 90 games at the position, according to FanGraphs. Cubs catchers for the whole season produced an 82 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR. Where does that leave the North Siders behind the plate for 2024?
The Starter: Yan Gomes
2023 Stats: 116 G, 419 PA, .267/.315/.408, 10 HR, 5.0% BB%, 19.3% K%, 1.0 fWAR, 1.7 bWAR, 0.8 WARP
2024 Projections: ZiPS: 96 G, 347 PA, .250/.297/.388, 9 HR, 4.9% BB%, 20.2% K%, 1.0 fWAR
Scouting Report: If it felt like Gomes had roughly a million big hits for the Cubs last year, well, it’s because he did. Per FanGraphs, the Cubs’ catcher hit .462 in high-leverage situations. That was third in all of baseball. He hit .287 in medium-leverage situations, and .215 in low-leverage spots. If clutch hitting were a skill, this would be a very impressive bit of sequencing on Gomes’s part, though I am inclined to believe this is simply a funny bit of small sample size theater.
Regardless, it all counts, and when you put his performance in high-, medium-, and low-leverage situations into a blender, it came out to a roughly league-average batting line. Before last season, had you asked any Cubs fan or executive, if they would take a league-average line from Gomes in 2023, they likely would have signed up in a heartbeat. Where Gomes (unfortunately) took a step back was in those defensive skills, which the Cubs seemed to be emphasizing.
In 2022, Gomes was a net neutral in framing, as he was worth exactly zero framing runs, according to FanGraphs. In 2023, however, he dropped all the way to -8.2 framing runs, one of the worst figures in baseball. That took him from being worth 8.0 Defensive Runs Above Average in 2022 to just 0.8 in 2023.
Now, there are a ton of other little factors at play when evaluating the defense of a catcher, a lot of which still aren’t quantifiable. Cubs pitchers still all have nothing but tremendous things to say about Gomes and how much they like to work with him, and when you compare that to the Cardinals throwing Contreras under the bus just a month into the season, it’s easier to feel good about the change. With all of that being said, how Gomes rates as a pitch framer is certainly something to watch for in 2024.
Other options: This is where the Cubs can, hopefully, take a big step forward this year. With Gomes no longer under contract after this season, it’s time to get a good look at Miguel Amaya, to see if he can take over the full-time role in 2025. The rookie hit .284/.395/.433 in his first 82 plate appearances last year, but finished the year on a down note, slashing .141/.257/.281 in his last 74 plate appearances.
It’s important to note that in 2020, Amaya was a highly regarded prospect, with FanGraphs rating him third in the Cubs system and 65th in all of baseball. In the three seasons that followed, the former top prospect amassed just 304 professional plate appearances due to the pandemic and injury, all of which significantly dulled his shine. Now, with a full professional season and some time with the big league club under his belt, hopefully Amaya can recapture some of that potential this coming season.
The Cubs have no other catchers on an already cramped 40-man roster, so I would be shocked to see them break camp with more than just Gomes and Amaya on the team. They have Jorge Alfaro, Pablo Aliendo, Joe Hudson, and Bryce Windham in Arizona as non-roster invitees, and will probably be able to stash at least one of those four at Iowa for depth.
The Big Question: This, to me, is actually two big questions: can Gomes rebound defensively? His 2023 season is probably the best we can expect from his bat at this point. If Gomes can find some value with the glove again, his ability to produce at the plate becomes much less important.
Will the Cubs be comfortable handing Miguel Amaya the keys? Gomes will be 37 this season, and as previously mentioned, is a free agent next offseason. Amaya should have plenty of runway to show what he can do this year. If he acclimates well and produces something like league-average offense and above-average defense, the Cubs should be comfortable handing him the full-time job going forward. If Amaya performs poorly, catcher becomes a huge question mark for this organization again, even as a couple more catcher prospects follow in his wake.
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