Another Sharp Rise on the Dansby Swanson Rollercoaster

Dansby Swanson is at it again.

This is roughly the third time in a calendar month that we're talking about the offensive side of the Chicago Cubs' glove-first shortstop. While the season thus far has worn on barely longer than that, it's the third time he's demonstrated a marked change in his approach to hitting. 

When we last saw Swanson, he was struggling. The strikeout rate had skyrocketed, largely due to Swanson's overeager hunt for the fastball. Not only was he sitting on that pitch, he was swinging at it with little regard for where it was within (or outside of) the strike zone. It reached a point where a seven-game stretch saw roughly a 50% strikeout rate. Within that stretch, he only mustered four hits. We're barely 10 games clear of that run, but things have already shifted for Swanson yet again—to the point where he's sort of mashing.

In his last 11 games, Swanson's slash includes a .357 average, a .386 OBP, and a .286 ISO. His 187 wRC+ is easily pacing what has been a wildly successful group of Cubs hitters in those contests. (Ian Happ is second, at 150.) There's been some substantial batted-ball luck, courtesy of a .444 BABIP, but he also continues to drive the ball (40.0 Hard-Hit%) and has gotten the launch angle down toward creating more line drive contact (11.8° is roughly a 5° drop from his 2025 average). Ultimately, though, we can attribute this stretch to a simple tamping down of the zone expansion. 

When Swanson expands his zone, he gets himself into trouble. When he's disciplined, he's good. That sounds too simple, but it's true—and even truer of Swanson than of most players.

It's not a perfect correlation, given the steady drop in chase rate and the sudden spike in offensive production, but the evidence is highly suggestive. Because Swanson has a swing geared for in-zone damage but is prone to whiffs even within the zone, it's especially valuable to him when he keeps the edges of the zone well—and especially deleterious when he lets them get fuzzy.

While this surge is definitely encouraging, it's not as if we should expect it to be the new and permanent norm. The strikeout rate has still been north of 28% over this more recent stretch. He's still whiffing at a huge rate when he does chase. Those issues were present the last time we took a look at Swanson's offensive game, and are still salient—but their side effects have been mitigated because he's started to calm down the element that gives them such potency when he does slump: that tendency to chase. 

Given those still-existent factors, the last two stretches of play for Swanson might be indicative of what we might continue to see in 2025. When he has the plate discipline somewhat reined in, he should produce impressively. In those periods where he's opening up the zone more frequently, the dips are going to continue to manifest. This is why he was known, long before he even signed this seven-year deal with the Cubs, as one of the league's streakiest hitters. It's who he is.

If Swanson can layer this development with either some additional contact outside the zone or (at least) a modest increase on fastballs away from the zone, then maybe we're having a more optimistic conversation. In the interim, though, we should probably expect continued variance. That's why it's so important that the team keep him surrounded with great offensive talent, as he has been all year.