2025 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread: Chicago Cubs Draft on North Side Baseball

42 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Zumach thinks Reid compares favorably to Bremner, FWIW

Very similar low-slot pronation. Heavy extension. Not a perfect profile and some player development folks wouldn’t like it, but also heard from non-Cubs folks that some of the big development orgs (Dodgers, Guardians) were in on Reid.

 

33 minutes ago, Named After Maddux said:

Sounds like I could have been low on that as well

I'm understanding you to be saying that the saving might be MORE than $750, correct?  

Or that your $4.0 estimate might be low, and the Cubs might pay variably closer to slot?  

 

Obviously all of this will come clearer tomorrow.  They don't spend many picks on guys who they can't sign.  So obviously we'll see how many HS-type overslot guys they take tomorrow.  

Kepley is the really surprising pick to me..  Kantro seems to like that Southisene/Bateman profile.  But spending overslot $1.0 on 4th round and $180 on an 8th-round guy is different from a 2nd-round guy with $1.7 slot.  

Hard to have a good big-league OBP without getting lots of hits.  As a sub-.300 hitter in college, he may face analogous challenge that Bateman and Southisene have struggled with.  Walks and HBP are not the best carrying tools offensively.  But, we shall see.  Maybe he can be kinda Hoerner with walks and HBP.  

Edited July 14, 2025 by craig

33 minutes ago, craig said:

Kepley is the really surprising pick to me..  Kantro seems to like that Southisene/Bateman profile.  But spending $600 on 4th round and $180 on an 8th-round guy is different from a 2nd-round guy with $1.7 slot.  

Hard to have a good big-league OBP without getting lots of hits.  As a sub-.300 hitter in college, he may face analogous challenge that Bateman and Southisene have struggled with.  Walks and HBP are not the best carrying tools offensively.  But, we shall see.  Maybe he can be kinda Hoerner with walks and HBP.  

Southisene got an overslot of $1 million, but I feel you. Really didn’t like the Kepley pick there. 

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I could be convinced on Conrad pretty easily, but I just don't see it on Kepley. Excellent defense but a poor arm, excellent speed but little to no power.  I mean this is like a Nick Madrigal type ceiling unless there's something that's missing.

Well he can steal and is a 2nd rounder.

Seems like solid enough players in our 1st 3 rounds.   I like Conrad.  I like the college players since we don't have to wait too long to see them in the MLB.

I feel better knowing that some of these sites that rate tools get it wrong.  Like MLB.com rating PCA with 60 run and 55 arm a couple of years ago.  Teams will know more than we do.

 

Edited July 14, 2025 by Stratos

Some highlights:

Kantrovitz thinks Conrad is a CF and called him a 5-tool player. He will miss the rest of the summer.

Kantrovitz says they’ll have a lot of financial flexibility tomorrow which is probably as much as he can spell out their plans for tomorrow.

 

Hoping for one of Matthew Fisher, Cam Appenzeller or Briggs McKenzie tomorrow.

Gavin Turley from the college hitter ranks.

 

6 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

I have a hard time bagging on drafts. I'm sure I could turn the clock back to threads from the last 20 years where I was praying the Cubs wouldn't take future HOFers and hoping beyond hope they'd take guys who flamed out in AA.

Except Hayden Simpson. horsefeathers that pick.

Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't Hendry draft Simpson in his first draft as GM?

 

2 hours ago, Layoutman said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't Hendry draft Simpson in his first draft as GM?

 

No, Hendry had been the GM for quite awhile before the Hayden Simpson debacle.  

7 hours ago, craig said:

I'm understanding you to be saying that the saving might be MORE than $750, correct?  

Or that your $4.0 estimate might be low, and the Cubs might pay variably closer to slot?  

 

My $750k slot savings appears to be low

I think they have some significant cash to work with on Day 2.

There’s a couple preps they have been lining up for round 11, but I don’t know who they’re going after in early day 2 because it should be interesting.

1 hour ago, Named After Maddux said:

My $750k slot savings appears to be low

I think they have some significant cash to work with on Day 2.

There’s a couple preps they have been lining up for round 11, but I don’t know who they’re going after in early day 2 because it should be interesting.

Kantrovitz indicated that they'll have "flexibility". Would be fun if that means that they have enough money for Bauer or something, but I'm assuming it's more along the lines of being able to give a couple of guys close to $1M.

10 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

So. I like these picks in a vacuum. If you told me the Cubs took these three guys individually, I'd be okay with each one. Conrad, Kepler, and Reid all make sense as Cubs picks.

But, together? It doesn't look fantastic on paper.

My hypothesis is the Cubs think the draft is weak this year and are saving money up front to take big swings later on. 

10 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Clearly Kantrovitz doesn't envision him as a 4th OF if he's picking him in the 2nd and using at or nearly full slot.

And I feel like Kantrovitz has had some success in St Louis with that archetype of annoying starting position player who didn't tremendous draft pedigree (and he has a few minor leaguers in that mold with the Cubs too - Christian Franklin, Brett Bateman, Jonathon Long, Carter Trice).

Eh. Second rounders are mostly 40ish FV types. I think that Kantrovitz was just trying to bank a player he thinks will be useful in short order and that's where the value comes from. Seems like Kepley is a really safe bet to reach the big leagues and be an optionable 1-1.5 WAR guy in a couple of years. If you get a few hundred thousand in savings, I get it, I guess.

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

My hypothesis is the Cubs think the draft is weak this year and are saving money up front to take big swings later on. 

I think it's just that their bonus pool is limited and their farm is depleting, so they want to make sure there's not a cliff of big league ready talent and are defaulting to guys the model is indicating are good bets to be contributors come like...2027-2028.

1. a more athletic Michael Conforto. 2. A Sam Fuld/Donnie Dewees. 3. A harder throwing Kyle Hendricks. I mean not the most exciting but not terrible either. 

BA reaction:

Quote

17. Chicago Cubs

Pick: OF Ethan Conrad
BA rank: 23

Reaction: Getting Conrad in the back half of the first round is one of my favorite value picks of the first round. The Cubs have hit on their recent first-round college hitters, and I think Conrad is going to be next in line. A shoulder injury ended Conrad’s season early, but on talent, he fits higher. There’s physicality, athleticism, a good lefthanded swing, hittability and power, as well as above-average speed, enough to at least consider center field, though a corner seems more likely. The injury is a legitimate question mark, but I’m a big fan of the combination of the hitting ability and overall upside here, especially if it does come in under slot.

 

11 hours ago, craig said:

Kepley is the really surprising pick to me..  Kantro seems to like that Southisene/Bateman profile.  But spending overslot $1.0 on 4th round and $180 on an 8th-round guy is different from a 2nd-round guy with $1.7 slot.  

Hard to have a good big-league OBP without getting lots of hits.  As a sub-.300 hitter in college, he may face analogous challenge that Bateman and Southisene have struggled with.  Walks and HBP are not the best carrying tools offensively.  But, we shall see.  Maybe he can be kinda Hoerner with walks and HBP.  

I think the models just really like the combination of plate/contact skills + up the middle ability. I think the developmental staff's bet is that if the guy is athletic enough and has some bat speed he could get to the minimum amount of power needed to be productive overall.

Was perusing Kepley’s baseball cube page again, and saw he had 27 HBP last year, and another 10 on the cape. New market inefficiency is taking guys that opponents can’t help but plunk.

21 minutes ago, nochiinchamp said:

I think the models just really like the combination of plate/contact skills + up the middle ability. I think the developmental staff's bet is that if the guy is athletic enough and has some bat speed he could get to the minimum amount of power needed to be productive overall.

I'm not saying anything about this pick, but i would also like to point out that, "The model" is a judgment aide and shouldn't be used in place of the judgment of experts.