Pete Crow-Armstrong Has Taken The "El Mago" Crown From Javier Báez

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Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Roughly four years ago, the Chicago Cubs did the unthinkable. By trading away Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez at the trade deadline, they signaled the end of an era, and the ushering in of a new one. That is to say nothing of the fact that they traded away some fan favorites. Anthony Rizzo felt like the Ernie Banks of this era. Kris Bryant was the best player, and MVP of the whole league, on a World Series-winning team. Javy Baez consistently left fans wondering what kind of incredible feat he would pull off next. 

Now, we’re more than officially into the new era of Cubs baseball, and I want to talk about the player that Baez was traded for, Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has suddenly developed into the Javier Baez of the new era. Of the many things that Baez was known for, one was swinging at basically anything that came anywhere close to the strike zone. I mean, how often do you see something like this?

The crazy thing is, while El Mago most certainly had a propensity for swinging at almost anything, if you look at their individual swing rates, Crow-Armstrong somehow makes Baez look like Juan Soto. Statcast tracks swing rates from 2007 onward, and here are the five highest overall swing rates Cubs players have posted in an individual season since then. O-Swing % is how often a player swings at pitches outside of the strike zone, while Z-Swing % is how often a player swings at pitches inside of the strike zone:

Player	Year	O-Swing %	Z-Swing %	Swing %
Pete Crow-Armstong	2025	45.2%	77.3%	60.9%
Javier Baez	2018	42.5%	76.6%	57.8%
Alfonso Soriano	2007	43.5%	75.7%	57.4%
Javier Baez	2017	41.3%	72.6%	56.1%
Alfonso Soriano	2011	43.4%	69.2%	55.4%

All in all, this is not horrible company to be in, as Soriano and Baez were both key cogs in some of the most successful Cubs teams this century. The bottom line, though, is that Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently on pace to post the most free swinging season for the Cubs since 2007, when MLB started tracking such metrics. How does this stack up to other players on other teams? Glad you asked! If the season ended today, the young center fielder would have the sixth-highest swing rate since 2007:

Player	Year	O-Swing %	Z-Swing %	Swing %
Ivan Rodriguez	2007	50.1%	75.0%	63.3%
Delmon Young	2007	46.5%	80.1%	62.2%
Ezequiel Tovar	2024	44.8%	80.3%	62.0%
Hanser Alberto	2020	50.4%	74.1%	61.7%
Ceddanne Rafaela	2024	46.3%	77.4%	61.5%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	2025	45.2%	77.3%	61.5%

This, admittedly, is much worse company to keep, and none of these players posted an above-average year at the plate during the seasons in question. Not only is Crow-Armstrong currently having the "swingiest" season in Cubs history, he could potentially have the swingiest season in baseball history. Again, note that this has only been tracked since 2007. Sure, 1.8 percentage points might feel like a lot to make up at this point, but that swing rate has been trending up since around the end of April (graph courtesy of Fangraphs😞

The bad news, and I included it in the graph here, is that pitchers are catching on, and simply starting to throw him way less pitches in the strike zone. That is what the blue line labeled Zone% represents: the percentage of pitches he has seen that were thrown in the strike zone. 

The good news is that in Saturday’s win over the Reds, the speedy outfielder drew two walks for the first time in his career. They were both on four pitches, and none of those pitches were particularly close to the strike zone, but, hey, baby steps, right?

To put a nice little bow on this, Pete Crow-Armstrong is suddenly becoming the Javier Baez for this new era of Cubs baseball, but he has somehow been even more Javier Baez than Javier Baez. Incredible defensive play? Check, and the metrics would say he’s better than Baez. Always up to something on the basepaths? Check, and the metrics would also say he’s a better baserunner. Swinging at everything? Check, and even more so than El Mago ever did. And now, for the ultimate measure: am I now planning bathroom breaks and other periods of time away from the television, around his plate appearances, making sure I always get to see them? Yes I am. 

Is that for better or for worse? Most of it is for the better. As for the high swing rate stuff, I am not sure! Consider me skeptical that Crow-Armstrong can continue producing offensively at this pace while swinging as often as he has — it's simply not sustainable against major league pitching. Yet somehow, it’s working so far. So, let’s just relax and enjoy the ride.

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