Make Or Break Players On The 2025 Cubs: Matt Shaw

[Andrew Wright]

With a strong top half of the lineup set and a veteran pitching staff reinforced with better depth, the 2025 Cubs have undeniable upside—more than they've had in years. Much of that rising hope, however, rests on the high-stakes bet the team has semi-accidentally placed on their rookie third baseman.

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Yes, it may seem like a lot to put the team's success on the back of Matt Shaw, a player who will probably make his MLB debut in just over a month, but he is a bit of an outlier. The hype around Shaw's emergence is extremely real, and the expectations will be higher than normal for the beginning of an MLB career.

To understand why, it's important to remember that Shaw is a career .303 hitter in the minor leagues, with an OBP of .384 and a .522 slugging average. Shaw has socked 29 home runs in 693 plate appearances across all minor-league levels. In his 2024 season, he hit 21 homers, stole 31 bases and played solid defense around the infield, with over 550 innings at third base and over 200 apiece at each middle-infield spot. He also dominated the Premier12 tournament as a member of Team USA this fall, with a 1.206 OPS in nine games. That he went there instead of creating a more traditional showcase for himself in the Arizona Fall League is a testament to his willingness to get out of his comfort zone, and he drew rave reviews for his eagerness to soak up new information during the one-month international sojourn.

Since the departure of Kris Bryant (and even prior thereto, at times), Chicago has struggled with production from third basemen. Just think about some names that have spent time at the hot corner since 2020: Isaac Paredes, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel, Nick Madrigal, David Bote, Jonathan Villar, and many more. It's a position that has lacked productivity and stability, and Shaw will have the opportunity to provide for 2025 and beyond.

With moves made throughout the offseason, the Cubs signaled that they believed in Shaw and his ability to produce right away in the big leagues. They dealt Paredes, and were ready to trade Nico Hoerner in response to the possibility of signing Alex Bregman—although that would have been fueled as much by financial constraints as by faith in their top prospect. The signs have been out in the open air all offseason. Shaw will be on the big-league roster fairly soon, if not right away, and he's expected to be a major contributor to the 2025 Chicago Cubs.

Though the need for big adjustments looms, Shaw does have two-way upside. He might be a sufficiently adroit hitter to be above-average at the plate right away, and he might just be an above-average third baseman, despite only moving to that position in earnest last year.

With the Cubs trying to get to the 90-win mark for the first time since 2018, Shaw's production will be enormously important. If the top prospect in the Chicago system can put together a solid rookie season, we may very well be watching playoff baseball at Wrigley Field for the first time in what has felt like forever.

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