2014 Roster Discussion Redux

[CubsWin]

It's always interesting to see what we thought would or wanted to happen a year earlier.

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=62309

 

After the first few pages, you can skip ahead to page 18 in the thread if you want to stick to actual 2014 roster discussion. It got pretty hilariously and classically side tracked for a bit. Pages 18-25 are particularly good discussion about what we thought the Cubs should do.

 

But the real reason I wanted to revisit that thread was because I remembered writing a post that talked about how 2014 would be a year of progress (and not winning obviously). And that the progression of key players and prospects would tell the FO a lot about how they would proceed in the pre-2015 off season.

 

Seeing how Baez, Bryant, Almora, Soler, Johnson, Edwards and Alcantara all progress or don't progress will affect how Theo & Co. approach 2015 more than anything. But there are more questions that will be answered, important ones in there own right. Castro and Rizzo. Olt and Arrieta. Sweeney and Lake. Grimm and Rondon. Vizcaino and Hendricks. That's 17 players who could either be playing for the Cubs in 2015 or solidify the front office's confidence that they will be key contributors shortly thereafter.

 

So despite all my disappointment in this off season to date, would it have been wise for the Cubs to do more than they have (outside of possibly shoring up the back end of the rotation with guys like Hammel and Baker) with so many wait-and-see questions yet to be answered?

I may have expressed myself a little better in the Tanaka thread:

 

Whereas the Cubs have not been interested in signing players in their 30s in the first two years of the rebuild, that will likely change as the team progresses. Or if the team progresses. That's why 2014 is such a big year. If top prospects show they are ready and key major league assets progress in their development (Castro, Arrieta, Samardzija, Rizzo, Castillo even Olt & Lake), the rebuild will likely be at the stage where adding such a player will make sense.

I can understand why Theo & Co. didn't want to commit long term to a player older than 30 in the first few years of this rebuild. It just didn't make sense for the team's competitive window. But that window seems to be opening, maybe just a crack, in the coming season. Quite a few things would have to go right for the Cubs to make the post-season in 2015, but in 2016 that window will likely be wide open, so signing a player who is 30 or 31 makes a lot more sense now.

 

But being in a position where it makes sense to sign someone like Lester was far from guaranteed back in April. A lot of things would have to go right in order for that to happen. I think a lot of those things did go right. And by that measure, I think 2014 was a successful season.

[CubsWin]

From the same thread...

 

Minor league players with a realistic chance (some better than others) of contributing to the big league club in 2014:

 

Javier Baez

Arismendy Alcantara

Arodys Vizcaino

Mike Olt

Kyle Hendricks

Neil Ramirez

Armando Rivero

 

There are also players recently brought up who have youth and upside to contribute in greater ways next year:

 

Junior Lake

Jake Arrieta

Justin Grimm

Zach Rosscup

Alberto Cabrera

Hector Rondon

 

That's 13 guys. Let's say 7 or 8 fail to contribute in any meaningful way. That's still an influx of 4 or 5 players that weren't on the 2013 mid-season roster who would cost very little.

 

Full disclosure, I edited the above quote. I listed a player twice and fixed that error.

Looking at that list, it's safe to say that 5 of those players contributed well to the major league team. Six of the seven minor leaguers listed made it to the majors. When you add in the resurgence of Castro and Rizzo, the emergence of Soler and the additions of Russell, Schwarber and McKinney to the organization, 2014 looks like an even bigger success.

 

One could look at the win-loss record and disagree, but in a rebuild there are other metrics and better ways to gauge progress and success. The good news is I think the Cubs are entering the denouement of this rebuild and the win-loss record starts becoming the only metric that matters very soon. And that might be the clearest sign of success. Three years into a complete, ground-up rebuild and the Cubs are to a point where the only metric that really matters is the win column. They've come a long way from the start of 2014.