Mark Prior Starting Tommorrow

[srbin84]

Not sure what you're trying to say in your last post, but he has a 4.14 ERA over the last 6 years. Still doesn't match the 3.75 ERA you came up with.

 

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that.

 

If you read the thread, this is a perfect post in regards to Raisin. He's saying Hernandez should be judged on what he was doing long ago and not recent history, but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

No, he also said we should judge Livan by what he was doing in the present.

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

I generally don't like to judge established veterans in their prime on a current season they aren't half way through yet, but the fairest way to judge him would be to use his 3 year splits plus his starts this year. If he wants to add that up, account for the innings and still tell him he isn't a good pitcher, I'll listen.

[Banedon]

I generally don't like to judge established veterans in their prime on a current season they aren't half way through yet, but the fairest way to judge him would be to use his 3 year splits plus his starts this year. If he wants to add that up, account for the innings and still tell him he isn't a good pitcher, I'll listen.

 

Translation: The only stats I'll accept or listen to are the stats that prove my case.

[srbin84]

No, he also said we should judge Livan by what he was doing in the present.

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

that doesn't matter dude, he eats up alot of innings even though he's sucking this year. Plus that's an abberation, if you ignore the 3 other years he's been awful, he's been ok.

 

I don't think you should Dustyize that sentiment. You've see how the exact two opposite types of pitcher can obliterate seasons on their own, and so have I, so I've learned the value of health and innings when it comes to starting pitching. If we are judging on career stats, everybody who does that agrees that Patterson is one of the worst players in the league, not far from Neifi status. I personally think that's a wrong way to look at things, but let's be consistent.

Edited June 19, 2006 by srbin84

[srbin84]

I generally don't like to judge established veterans in their prime on a current season they aren't half way through yet, but the fairest way to judge him would be to use his 3 year splits plus his starts this year. If he wants to add that up, account for the innings and still tell him he isn't a good pitcher, I'll listen.

 

Translation: The only stats I'll accept or listen to are the stats that prove my case.

 

No. I've been saying the same thing about Aramis since the season started.

[Chocolate Milk]

I don't care what stats anybody wants to look at or what they want to say. Livan Hernandez is a good pitcher.

 

Good to know.

[Banedon]

No, he also said we should judge Livan by what he was doing in the present.

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

that doesn't matter dude, he eats up alot of innings even though he's sucking this year. Plus that's an abberation, if you ignore the 3 other years he's been awful, he's been ok.

 

I don't think you should Dustyize that sentiment. You've see how the exact two exact opposite types of pitcher can obliterate seasons on their own, and so have I, so I've learned the value of health and innings when it comes to starting pitching. If we are judging on career stats, everybody who does that agrees that Patterson is one of the worst players in the league, not far from Neifi status. I personally think that's a wrong way to look at things, but let's be consistent.

 

You keep talking about career stats, like the present is really good, but it's not. You don't want to talk about the past or the present, but simply a period of time that happens to make the numbers look......ok. Not great...just...ok.

[srbin84]

No, he also said we should judge Livan by what he was doing in the present.

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

that doesn't matter dude, he eats up alot of innings even though he's sucking this year. Plus that's an abberation, if you ignore the 3 other years he's been awful, he's been ok.

 

I don't think you should Dustyize that sentiment. You've see how the exact two exact opposite types of pitcher can obliterate seasons on their own, and so have I, so I've learned the value of health and innings when it comes to starting pitching. If we are judging on career stats, everybody who does that agrees that Patterson is one of the worst players in the league, not far from Neifi status. I personally think that's a wrong way to look at things, but let's be consistent.

 

You keep talking about career stats, like the present is really good, but it's not. You don't want to talk about the past or the present, but simply a period of time that happens to make the numbers look......ok. Not great...just...ok.

 

Well, his average season from 2003 to 2005 was 245 IP 3.60 ERA. Is that an example and is that not good?

[Chris]

...but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

Oh man...do you even REMEMBER last year? He was getting booed unmercifully at every at bat. Fan favorite? Come on...

 

ha ha, fan favorite!?!?!?!

[srbin84]

...but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

Oh man...do you even REMEMBER last year? He was getting booed unmercifully at every at bat. Fan favorite? Come on...

 

ha ha, fan favorite!?!?!?!

 

He is here.

[Banedon]

You keep talking about career stats, like the present is really good, but it's not. You don't want to talk about the past or the present, but simply a period of time that happens to make the numbers look......ok. Not great...just...ok.

 

Well, his average season from 2003 to 2005 was 245 IP 3.60 ERA. Is that an example and is that not good?

 

It's ok, not great and not terrible, and an arbitrary group of statistics in a less than stellar career.

[Chris]

He is here.

 

Really?

[srbin84]

You keep talking about career stats, like the present is really good, but it's not. You don't want to talk about the past or the present, but simply a period of time that happens to make the numbers look......ok. Not great...just...ok.

 

Well, his average season from 2003 to 2005 was 245 IP 3.60 ERA. Is that an example and is that not good?

 

It's ok, not great and not terrible, and an arbitrary group of statistics in a less than stellar career.

 

Well, then we just have different standards. I think 245/3.60 is better than ok.

[Banedon]

...but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

Oh man...do you even REMEMBER last year? He was getting booed unmercifully at every at bat. Fan favorite? Come on...

 

ha ha, fan favorite!?!?!?!

 

He is here.

 

He's an interest. He's someone that we all followed intently as a Cubs prospect, and many feel that his development was ruined by the Cubs management. So his success at this point is interesting to us. So to imply that we're ignoring his past, is just silly. We're seperating his Cubs career from his Baltimore one, because of different environments and different instruction. The fact is that Corey has been much better with the Orioles so far.

 

And I think it's hilarious to compare the judgement of a CF prospects growth, to the judgement of the success of a veteran pitcher. There's 5 years difference in age and time in the league. Not to mention one is a pitcher, and the other a centerfielder. Yes, they will probably be judged differently.

[srbin84]

...but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

Oh man...do you even REMEMBER last year? He was getting booed unmercifully at every at bat. Fan favorite? Come on...

 

ha ha, fan favorite!?!?!?!

 

He is here.

 

He's an interest. He's someone that we all followed intently as a Cubs prospect, and many feel that his development was ruined by the Cubs management. So his success at this point is interesting to us. So to imply that we're ignoring his past, is just silly. We're seperating his Cubs career from his Baltimore one, because of different environments and different instruction. The fact is that Corey has been much better with the Orioles so far.

 

And I think it's hilarious to compare the judgement of a CF prospects growth, to the judgement of the success of a veteran pitcher. There's 5 years difference in age and time in the league. Not to mention one is a pitcher, and the other a centerfielder. Yes, they will probably be judged differently.

 

There were both of similar age when they came to the big leagues, so I don't really know what you are saying there. As far as Corey just being interest, I don't think it's that small. Where are the Farnsworth threads?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

There were both of similar age when they came to the big leagues, so I don't really know what you are saying there. As far as Corey just being interest, I don't think it's that small. Where are the Farnsworth threads?

 

Corey Patterson: Selected by Chicago Cubs in 1st Round (3rd overall) of 1998 amateur entry draft

 

Kyle Lynn Farnsworth: Selected by Chicago Cubs in 47th Round (1290th overall) of 1994 amateur entry draft

[Banedon]

There were both of similar age when they came to the big leagues, so I don't really know what you are saying there. As far as Corey just being interest, I don't think it's that small. Where are the Farnsworth threads?

 

Who cares if they were similar age when they came to the league? You're talking about Patterson when he's 26, and Hernandez when he's 31. And they still are a centerfielder and a pitcher.

 

And there have been plenty of Farnsworth threads. Trust me, I've had to moderate them. With the lack of a functional search right now, you'll excuse me if I don't provide links to them. But he was never as highly touted as CP was, few prospects have been.

[srbin84]

There were both of similar age when they came to the big leagues, so I don't really know what you are saying there. As far as Corey just being interest, I don't think it's that small. Where are the Farnsworth threads?

 

Who cares if they were similar age when they came to the league? You're talking about Patterson when he's 26, and Hernandez when he's 31. And they still are a centerfielder and a pitcher.

 

And there have been plenty of Farnsworth threads. Trust me, I've had to moderate them. With the lack of a functional search right now, you'll excuse me if I don't provide links to them. But he was never as highly touted as CP was, few prospects have been.

 

Ok, I guess. Once he was in the big leagues and relieving, I just kind of figured that 100 MPH fastball instantly made him highly touted. I know what you are saying with Patterson, and is exact what I am saying, at least look at what he has done in his prime and scratch the Marlins years.

[Chocolate Milk]

Kyle Lynn Farnsworth

 

HAhahahahahahahha!

[Banedon]

There were both of similar age when they came to the big leagues, so I don't really know what you are saying there. As far as Corey just being interest, I don't think it's that small. Where are the Farnsworth threads?

 

Who cares if they were similar age when they came to the league? You're talking about Patterson when he's 26, and Hernandez when he's 31. And they still are a centerfielder and a pitcher.

 

And there have been plenty of Farnsworth threads. Trust me, I've had to moderate them. With the lack of a functional search right now, you'll excuse me if I don't provide links to them. But he was never as highly touted as CP was, few prospects have been.

 

Ok, I guess. Once he was in the big leagues and relieving, I just kind of figured that 100 MPH fastball instantly made him highly touted. I know what you are saying with Patterson, and is exact what I am saying, at least look at what he has done in his prime and scratch the Marlins years.

 

How about the SF years? Are we allowed to look at those?

[JGalt73]

Will Carroll proclaims old Prior dead:

 

I saw the future of the Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Mark Prior was standing on the mound, throwing in the low 90s, struggling with his control and his mechanics as the Tigers pounded him mercilessly. I saw Dusty Baker sitting, staring out at the disaster the 2006 season has become. I saw the fans, still there to see and to hope, even as the weather turned as black as the season.

 

Prior needed 40 pitches to get through the first inning. By the 20th pitch, he was showing signs of fatigue, such as his elbow dropping below his shoulder, leading to a lack of control. He was unable to find his breaking ball until the middle of the second; by then he was down six runs, only half his pitches going for strikes. He overthrew to hit 92, the flat four-seam fastball not sizzling by hitters. Prior was throwing with Greg Maddux stuff but not Greg Maddux control. It's one start, but paired with what we saw during his rehab, the Cubs have to realize now that this Prior is no longer the Prior that they drafted. He's something different now, just as Kerry Wood is no longer the Kerry Wood who scared hitters and threatened a 20-strikeout performance every time out. Prior and Wood--who should be back in the rotation by next weekend--can still be effective, even great, but not how we thought. It's up to them to find a new way to win ballgames.

[srbin84]

There were both of similar age when they came to the big leagues, so I don't really know what you are saying there. As far as Corey just being interest, I don't think it's that small. Where are the Farnsworth threads?

 

Who cares if they were similar age when they came to the league? You're talking about Patterson when he's 26, and Hernandez when he's 31. And they still are a centerfielder and a pitcher.

 

And there have been plenty of Farnsworth threads. Trust me, I've had to moderate them. With the lack of a functional search right now, you'll excuse me if I don't provide links to them. But he was never as highly touted as CP was, few prospects have been.

 

Ok, I guess. Once he was in the big leagues and relieving, I just kind of figured that 100 MPH fastball instantly made him highly touted. I know what you are saying with Patterson, and is exact what I am saying, at least look at what he has done in his prime and scratch the Marlins years.

 

How about the SF years? Are we allowed to look at those?

 

Yeah, I'm just saying each year should be looked at with increasing importance as it comes closer to 2006. As for 2006, we wait until it is over before judging him on that. Same goes for Ramirez and other similar players.

[Banedon]

Yeah, I'm just saying each year should be looked at with increasing importance as it comes closer to 2006. As for 2006, we wait until it is over before judging him on that. Same goes for Ramirez and other similar players.

 

If we're doing that, lets take your 3 year split. Starting from 2003, Livan got worse every year since. I don't value innings quite as much as you, but we'll throw that in there. Also I threw in this year to show the trend. Yes, he had a good year in '03. But he's on a downhill slide.

 

2003 233.1 innings 3.20 ERA

2004 255.0 innings 3.60 ERA

2005 246.1 innings 3.98 ERA

2006 97.1 innings 5.18 ERA

[srbin84]

Yeah, I'm just saying each year should be looked at with increasing importance as it comes closer to 2006. As for 2006, we wait until it is over before judging him on that. Same goes for Ramirez and other similar players.

 

If we're doing that, lets take your 3 year split. Starting from 2003, Livan got worse every year since. I don't value innings quite as much as you, but we'll throw that in there. Also I threw in this year to show the trend. Yes, he had a good year in '03. But he's on a downhill slide.

 

2003 233.1 innings 3.20 ERA

2004 255.0 innings 3.60 ERA

2005 246.1 innings 3.98 ERA

2006 97.1 innings 5.18 ERA

 

He seems like he is in a long groove right now. I'd like to keep tracking this season before I say he is on a decline, but if he were to add another .40 to his ERA from last season, I would agree that he was.

[Banedon]

Yeah, I'm just saying each year should be looked at with increasing importance as it comes closer to 2006. As for 2006, we wait until it is over before judging him on that. Same goes for Ramirez and other similar players.

 

If we're doing that, lets take your 3 year split. Starting from 2003, Livan got worse every year since. I don't value innings quite as much as you, but we'll throw that in there. Also I threw in this year to show the trend. Yes, he had a good year in '03. But he's on a downhill slide.

 

2003 233.1 innings 3.20 ERA

2004 255.0 innings 3.60 ERA

2005 246.1 innings 3.98 ERA

2006 97.1 innings 5.18 ERA

 

He seems like he is in a long groove right now. I'd like to keep tracking this season before I say he is on a decline, but if he were to add another .40 to his ERA from last season, I would agree that he was.

 

So your 3 year time frame is ok for saying that he's good, but it's not ok for trending a decline? You're very very specific with your metrics, aren't ya?

[srbin84]

Yeah, I'm just saying each year should be looked at with increasing importance as it comes closer to 2006. As for 2006, we wait until it is over before judging him on that. Same goes for Ramirez and other similar players.

 

If we're doing that, lets take your 3 year split. Starting from 2003, Livan got worse every year since. I don't value innings quite as much as you, but we'll throw that in there. Also I threw in this year to show the trend. Yes, he had a good year in '03. But he's on a downhill slide.

 

2003 233.1 innings 3.20 ERA

2004 255.0 innings 3.60 ERA

2005 246.1 innings 3.98 ERA

2006 97.1 innings 5.18 ERA

 

He seems like he is in a long groove right now. I'd like to keep tracking this season before I say he is on a decline, but if he were to add another .40 to his ERA from last season, I would agree that he was.

 

So your 3 year time frame is ok for saying that he's good, but it's not ok for trending a decline? You're very very specific with your metrics, aren't ya?

 

I wouldn't classify any of those seasons as bad, and the first two were definitely good. When the decline starts reaching into the bad range, then it's legit. Going from great to good to around average (in terms of ERA alone) isn't a great thing, but it's not like he still hasn't pitched well through the majority of that stretch.