Hey folks, 

let me clear my desk of the Tanner Scott issue first. 

I'm none-too-happy about missing on Tanner Scott (and Kirby Yates, btw), but at least we "tried". I Think the Dodgers paid the right price. I had Scott as a 65 MM player on 3 years or 75 MM on four years (when you're in the bullpen, that extra guarantee is well worth a lower AAV). Dodgers went 4 years, 72 MM. Let' keep in mind, on a 4 year bullpen contract, you're paying for 1 year of injury time, whereas on a 3 year, you're betting on maybe half a year of injury, tops. Supposing Scott is a 3 WAR player, on 70 game appearances average, you're paying $8 mil/year for the closer WAR. Thus, I felt the Cubs should have paid $75 and won the bid, because of how hard it is to find convincingly reliable bullpen WAR. Tsk tsk. 

Going forward, I like Kenley Jansen because I want a buy who will take a slightly diminished contract, has fairly balanced splits, and an incredible resume to step up. I'd give him a 2 year, 25 million deal to give us 1.5 WAR per year, splitting the closer role with Hodge. He aint a lefty but he can handle lefties ok. My next favorite option is David Robertson (1 year, 12 mil), who would be an elite setup guy if he stays healthy. He doesn't have the velocity i would want for a closer. I DONT like Estevez because his fundamentals are poor and he'll probably regress. 

Ok, now back to Jon Berti. 

Berti Versus the Pack 
So, I like this signing, especially for the price. I have Berti as worth roughly 1 WAR off the bench, especially while filling in for Hoerner for at least 6 weeks full-time at 2nd. I value 1 WAR bench play at $5MM, a bit below the average value of WAR at $8MM, because a 1 WAR player rarely tips the scales positively in big games. Berti raises us from a 93 win team to 94, according to my projections, but has no significant effect on post-season success. He's also 1 WAR worse than my preferred player target, Paul DeJong, but I am ok with it as long as we still add a power hitting bat to the team. 

We are paying him in the $2 - 3.2 MM range, so he's being paid to repeat his .6 WAR glove performance last year but with extra bat upside. First, let's compare him with Yoan Moncada and Josh Rojas, who the media originally felt would make a better Cub. Berti's health record isnt pefect but it surely beats Moncada, who has been beat up to hell recently. I wish Moncada the best but he needs to rehab in 2025 as a league minimum utility player or 3B injury sub on a bottom dweller. Berti beats Rojas in terms of positional flexibility. His best position is actually 2B, which means he's being hired to start at second and let Shaw have 3rd. He has plenty of 3B experience, but despite general quality play there, his error rate was quite high at the hot corner. 

Berti was an elite base stealer just 2 years prior, and has the profile to repeat that performance. I DEMAND that utility infield players steal bases well above league average. Berti also is a high contact hitter with balanced splits, roughly .700 OPS, but with several up years with a combined WAR of 2.4 in both 2022 and 2023. This is a very good result, and such a result would make him a worthy 2B starter on 1/3rd of the teams. Berti can also cover all outfield positions with plenty of glove success - he's better out there than a Mastrobouni would be, for example. Overall, Berti is a true utility plus glove at 6 positions, and a league average WAR contributor overall when playing at 2nd. Overall, a guy you'd really want to sub for Hoerner and then drop into the background afterwards. His career hitting profile is overally eerily similar to Nico Hoerner's down year in 2024. Its not any worse than Josh Rojas, who landed with the White Sox. 

Berti Versus Paul DeJong

In my prior blogposts, I recommended DeJong as the best possible player for this job, on a 1 year $9MM contract. DeJong is a better 3B player than most - it appears to be his true strength position despite him mostly playing SS in the past. Berti is more of a true utility player, but as I said, his 3B performance was a bit sub-par (although steadily improving), but he's a stellar 2B with only 5 career errors at that position. Berti can steal, DeJong cannot. On the other hand, Berti has no power, which is the typical situation for utility players. DeJong has plus power, and would substantially raise the Cub's team slugging percentage with a projected HR rate of 30 per 162 games, and 26 HR last year. Basically, I wanted to pay DeJong to play more 3rd and actually start at the position there, and seriously raise the slugging profile of the Cubs.

Berti, Summarized 
By going with Berti and the "tried and true" speedy glove-first utility formula, Berti becomes a mere blip on the race to the NL pennant. He is being paid about 50% more than the average utility guy because of his experience and pattern of success at the role. He will rank among the top 5 infield utility guys in the NL in glove performance, and gives the upside potential of being a league average hitter and plus basestealer. I project him at 20 SB, 250 at bats, with 100 of those coming at the beginning of the season starting for Hoerner. That's worth 2-3 million, for sure - as I said, I value him at $5 million , but the market always exploits utility players a bit -  unless you're the Dodgers, who overpay to have the "best" teammate at that job.

What Now?
 

The last remaining 26 man roster role with a bat attached to it is 5th outfielder. We could be lazy and roll with Canario's ultra high strikeout rate and lack of experience or health profile, and expect nothing special. That sucks, frankly. 

In my past blogpost, I argued for Randal Grichuck. I will now double-down on that argument and emphasize why it makes TWICE the sense, now that the Cubs went with speedster Berti over a power hitter. 

Cubs desperately need to prove they can hit with the big boys. 33 y.o. Randal Grichuk is the perfect, and I mean perfect, answer to that problem. He's used to platooning his whole career. He's elite at it. He was the BEST lefty killer platoon bat in all of the majors last year and that wasnt a fluke. He profiles to hit in the .850-.950 OPS range vs LHP again this year, with very high batting average and some HR pop. He would be pinching every single day he isn't starting for PCA... I would sign him on a 2 year deal to secure his services as the 5th outfielder. Win now, wait until 2027 to worry about replacing Happ/Suzuki with young talent. 

No, we don't need a glove first 5th outfielder. We already have 3 gold glover starters! All 3 are elite, guys. We now have Jon Berti who can play plus glove out there. He's already that glove guy. What we DONT have is an elite pinch hitter, which every great contending team has. 

I projected Grichuk at 2 years, 25 mil for the cubs, plus incentives to reach 30 million... backloaded so his 2025 hit is 10 mil. If any team outbids us for his services, so be it, but at that price, Grichuk would be a monster addition alongside Berti. 

Do I actually think we will land Grichuk? No, because Hoyer doesn't do bidding wars. Some team like the Pirates will overbid to get him for a 3 year 50 mil starting role, and he'll take it. I'm not sure where else we turn after Grichuk, but I hope for a player with at least SLG+ 120 and kills lefties. NO GLOVE FIRST GUYS on the OF bench, when we already have Berti!!!!

WAR - where are we now?

Had we signed DeJong, Scott, and Grichuk = 100 wins 

signing Berti, Jansen, and Grichuk = 97.5 wins

signing Berti and Jansen = 95.5 wins

signing Berti and Kyle Finnegan = 95 wins

signing just Berti = 94 wins

One more thing: My WAR projections, which are admittedly a bit optimistic, don't include any major disasters, such as losing a starter all season rather than just for 15-60 day injury stints. 

A more realistic approach factors in at least 1 lost starting pitcher and 1 lost starting player.

Let's suppose we end up with Berti + Finnegan (95 wins scenario), and then Hoyer sits on the roster until mid-season - which is highly likely. Let's assume 3B is a bust this year again (0 WAR instead of my 1 WAR projection for Shaw + Berti) we lose Boyd AND Assad all season to injuries (1.5 WAR loss compared to next three starters splitting those two slots, Rea, Birdsell, and Poteet), and ... This takes us back to 92.5 Wins. 

What was our need last year to beat the Brewers? 92 wins, with +1 additional victory over them in direct play.  See why this makes me nervous about running with Canario in the outfield? No way we let the Brewers sneak up on us again, man. We need that bonus bat to provide a cushion. Berti isnt enough cushion yet. Grichuk would make up for the loss of multiple players!