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Kingmanarama

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Everything posted by Kingmanarama

  1. Kingmanarama
    If you pay a $51 million posting fee, you'd better sign the guy for five or six years. I can't imagine giving Seibu all that money, then simply signing the dude for three years.
  2. Kingmanarama
    I do. If we're going to try to get a few hundred plate appearances from some old, declining LH hitter, I wouldn't mind Barry.
  3. Kingmanarama
    I don't think it would be that big of a stretch, considering he's 39. ...and he'll be 40 in May. And his range has already slipped. I'll say this for Lofton: he outslugged Trot Nixon last year (.403 to .394).
  4. Kingmanarama
    He'll be 33 in April, he has a history of back/leg injuries, and he slugged .394 in 453 plate appearances last season. His power really seems to have disappeared. If it takes a multi-year deal to get him, I'm definitely not interested.
  5. Kingmanarama
    Funny this didn't come up while they were negotiating a $136 million contract.
  6. Kingmanarama
    Soriano outproduced Hawpe in OPS+ in their age 25, 26, and 27 MLB seasons: Hawpe 2004, age 25 - 72 OPS+, 118 plate appearances, Hawpe 2005, age 26 - 88 OPS+, 351 PA Hawpe 2006, age 27 - 122 OPS+, 575 PA Soriano 2001, age 25 - 92 OPS+, 614 PA Soriano 2002, age 26 - 131 OPS+, 741 PA Soriano 2003, age 27 - 128 OPS+, 734 PA Also, Soriano outperformed Hawpe in OPS+ during each of the past three years: Soriano 2004, age 28 - 98 OPS+, 658 PA Soriano 2005, age 29 - 110 OPS+, 682 PA Soriano 2006, age 30 - 132 OPS+, 728 PA Hawpe sat against LHPs last season, too, which helped his OPS more than a little. He has a severe RHP/LHP split. I don't think it's necessary to look at minor league numbers to settle the debate. I'm not thrilled with A) Soriano's contract, B) the possibility of Soriano playing center field, or C) the fact that he's going to lead-off. But there's no doubt in my mind that he's a significantly more productive hitter than Brad Hawpe.
  7. Kingmanarama
    If Hawpe didn't sit so often against LHPs, that OPS wouldn't be so impressive: Hawpe career vs. RHP - 921 PA, 30 HR, .284/.372/.473 Hawpe career vs. LHP - 123 PA, 4 HR, .227/.309/.400 For comparison's sake: Jones career vs. RHP - 3371 PA, 138 HR, .295/.343/.493 Jones career vs. LHP - 993 PA, 21 HR, .228/.275/.350 I'd certainly rather have Hawpe than Jones. I can't imagine prefering Hawpe to Soriano, though, unless you actively root for a low payroll: Hawpe PA, OPS+ 2004, age 25 - 118, 72 2005, age 26 - 351, 88 2006, age 27 - 575, 122 Soriano PA, OPS+ 2001, age 25 - 614, 92 2002, age 26 - 741, 131 2003, age 27 - 734, 128 2004, age 28 - 658, 98 2005, age 29 - 682, 110 2006, age 30 - 728, 132
  8. Kingmanarama
    8 years is a long time. But it also might be a steal by that time. I like the signing. Everyone says he's a good clubhouse guy so for those who think in line of team chemistry he works. I'm glad the Cubs have him. If the Trib's going to sell the team, they'd be smart to make this a back-loaded deal. Meaning that Soriano could make, say, $14M next season and $20M when he's 38. Stick the next ownership group with the bill, so to speak.
  9. Kingmanarama
    Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard). How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though). Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58. Shouldn't it be Freddy Sanchi? The Pirates should give away Freddy Sanchia Pets. That'd be awesome.
  10. Kingmanarama
    Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard). How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though). Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58.
  11. Kingmanarama
    Buckner won the batting title that year, too. And the Cubs were 64-98. Bad chemistry, obviously.
  12. Kingmanarama
    Yeah. It's a very tradeable contract, unless the option year is automatically triggered by a trade.
  13. Kingmanarama
    It'd be worth dealing for Kearns just so he can't destroy our pitchers anymore. Of course, if he couldn't face Cub pitchers anymore, he wouldn't be much of a hitter. A lot of profane gestures have been exchanged between Kearns and the RF bleachers over the years, too. I don't really want that to end.
  14. Kingmanarama
    *Perfect.* I'm not thinking of Michaels as an alternative to Pierre, by the way, but to Jones. He could at least be an effective platoon partner for Jones. Not that it's happening.
  15. Kingmanarama
    Yeah, I find all this very unsettling. Knowing that players like Crisp and Marte are available, and hearing that Michaels might be dealt for so little, has certainly reinforced just how poorly this off-season has gone for the Cubs. So far, in my opinion, we've been both aggressive and unimaginitive. That's a terrible combination.
  16. Kingmanarama
    I'm not sure about the work ethic part. This is from his STATS Inc. scouting report: "While Michaels didn't help himself when he declined the team's suggestion that he play winter ball after the 2004 season, he remains an asset off the bench." In any case, if he's available for a middle reliever, the Cubs should get involved. Also, the rumored injury to Marte involved his elbow. This is from USAToday.com: "Reports of Andy Marte having a torn UCL in his elbow were false, according to the Boston Herald. 'There have been no doctor visits, no surgeries, no sore elbow, no anything,' Marte's agent, Don Mitchell, said. 'He’s been playing in the Dominican (Republic’s winter league), he’s been hitting, he’s been throwing and he’s been having no physical problems whatsoever.'"
  17. Kingmanarama
    The Boston Globe is reporting a six-player swap: "The Red Sox, according to a source with knowledge of the deal, have reached agreement in principle with the Indians on a complex six-player deal centered upon 26-year-old Coco Crisp that also will bring to town a quality setup man in 28-year-old David Riske and young catcher Josh Bard." Link. We'll see. I'm not interested in judging the merits of this trade. I just wish we had been in on Crisp.
  18. Kingmanarama
    Well, if you consider what the Red Sox gave up to get Crisp I'm glad the Cubs didn't pursue him. Because Marte is going to be Mike Schmidt? We'll see. I would have given him up for Crisp, who is already a terrific hitter and, since he just turned 26, probably hasn't plateaued. They gave up Marte and Mota. I don't think they've given up anything yet. The latest version of the deal I've seen has Riske and Bard going to Boston, with Shoppach and Mota possibly going to Cleveland. But there could be hold-ups regarding Mota's health, and the Indians' ability to replace Crisp with Michaels. It's impossible to evaluate the trade without knowing who's in and who's out. But, if the Indians are/were willing to move Crisp, we should have been interested.
  19. Kingmanarama
    Well, if you consider what the Red Sox gave up to get Crisp I'm glad the Cubs didn't pursue him. Because Marte is going to be Mike Schmidt? We'll see. I would have given him up for Crisp, who is already a terrific hitter and, since he just turned 26, probably hasn't plateaued.
  20. Kingmanarama
    If Michaels can actually be had for a middle reliever of Rhodes-or-Mota quality, the Cubs should bid. A Jones/Michaels platoon in RF would be a lot less sucky than a full season of Jones. Edit: Also, why the heck weren't we in on Crisp? He's the surest thing in this rumored trade. At 24, he had an OPS+ of 106. At 25, he had an OPS+ of 119. Those 42 doubles last season, and a significant home/road split, suggest very good things. Pre-Pierre, I would've traded any two Cub prospects for Crisp.
  21. Kingmanarama
    Crisp is average in CF - Damon was great in CF other than having a terrible arm. I do like the trade for Boston b/c they really needed a CF and Crisp is a huge upgrade over what they had but IMO they downgraded defense in CF. You're right, they did downgrade. I was looking at the data for Crisp as a corner outfielder. I'm surprised that they are willing to go with an AGonz at short. I would think they'd be better off just starting Pedroia? They already have Cora who is very similar to AGonz so it suprises me also - I would give Pedroia the chance to win the job and use Cora if he didn't. I don't know that Cora (or Pedroia) is all that similar to Gonzalez defensively. That signing would make sense. If the Indians can get Michaels straight-up for either Rhodes or Betancourt, I'm going to be ill.
  22. Kingmanarama
    Because Lugo is already 30, he's coming off a career year, and he'll be a free agent at the end of this season. He's not going to sign cheaply. I'd greatly prefer to give Cedeno a long look at short.
  23. Kingmanarama
    That doesn't exactly sound like a manager committing to player, does it? "Right now Todd Walker is our second baseman." Then, "we have about 10 weeks before we start blah-blah-Opening-Day-blah." Sounds to me like Walker's gone.
  24. Kingmanarama
    Tribune shareholder?
  25. Kingmanarama
    Lots of people, particularly in the media, seem to be missing this fact. Baltimore does not have to trade Tejada. There's no reason to act with urgency. The O's shouldn't move Tejada unless they're completely overwhelmed by an offer. I think they've played this pretty well. If I were the O's GM and Boston wanted to deal, I'd tell them that any offer had to include Marte, Lester, a quality shortstop, and very little salary.
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