While I'm hopeful that it's too early to be thinking '26 and beyond roster construction, it's been a fascinating puzzle given Shota's unique contract. You covered why the Qualifying Offer would likely be the most financial savvy move, however unsure if that's worth the cost of triggering bad vibes with Shota and FO.
However, here's a few reasons why it'd be worth the Cubs to pick up the extension:
Per sportico, his extension would only be $13.5M vs. the salary tax each season. He'd be taking up the Jamo Taillon role ($17M against tax, expires in '27) on the squad as unflappable veteran.
While the Cubs are paying him $5.5M in actual monies, I'd imagine that can be offset by the merch moved domestically and in Japanese markets
Japanese market - Amazon Prime Video has the MLB Contract in Japan, and shows 54 regular season games a year - mainly focusing on teams like Cubs with Japanese players; fanbase's embrace of Shota positions Chicago as a favorable destination for Japanese FAs (I mean, there's only so much room on the Dodgers roster, right? *pause* Right?!?)
Genuine positive locker room presence, and the "Throwing Philosopher" can mentor up and coming pitchers.
Despite impending labor stoppage, Cubs books are quite clean heading into '27. Only Swanson ($28M) is locked, while Busch is ARB 1 (and if he continues apace, that should be a decent sized check). Otherwise, it's just mutual Options for both Boyd ($15M) and Kelly ($7.5M)
Here are reasons why I could see them not extending:
Despite practically immaculate books, Ricketts wants to clean as much off.
Jed's irrational confidence in spamming the "Colin Rea $6M/1Y" play
Already committed money to TOR FA signings Freddy Peralta and Dylan Cease.
Reinforced windows and doors that keep pitchfork and torch toting fans from destroying offices.