harmony

Seattle's starting shortstop next year will almost certainly be J,P. Crawford, whose projected WAR of 3.0 falls between his 2023 fWAR of 4.9 and the 1.6 fWAR of his injury-plagued 2024 season: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jp-crawford/15491/stats?position=SS#dashboard

Seattle might have an interest in a healthy Nico Hoerner because his defensive skills offset his league-average bat (career OPS+ 100, 2024 OPS+ 101). However, the Mariners are unlikely to surrender an established, cost-controlled starter for an infielder whose recovery from flexor tendon surgery may cut into his mere two years of team control.

Seattle is unlikely to trade Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert or Bryce Miller, certainly not for a package of lesser assets. Continuing in their win-now mode, the Mariners seek comparable team control of established MLB talent, not prospects.

Does Blake Snell's reported contract increase the trade value of Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo? Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year. Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers. Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts. Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

A Seattle podcaster is entitled to his opinion ... regardless of merit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDzqyMDG2Ys 😃

Would anyone trade Cody Bellinger to the Yankees straight up for right-hander Marcus Stroman? Bellinger is owed $27.5 million in 2025 plus a $5 million buyout if his team fails to exercise a $27.5 million option for 2026 (Bellinger may opt out after the 2025 season). Stroman is owed $18.5 million in 2025 with a vesting option for $18.5 million in 2026 if Stroman pitches 140 innings in 2025. Baseball Trade Values assigns Bellinger a trade value of negative $8.1 million and Stroman a trade value of negative $6.7 million. Would the trade meet the needs of either, neither or both teams?

A projection system that ignores an injury and surgery is flawed as well. One interesting comp would be Nico Hoerner and Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh, two players taken out of college in the 2018 draft. Over the past three seasons Hoerner has posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.6 million. Over the same period Raleigh has posted 13.9 fWAR, valued at $111.5 million. Hoerner is guaranteed $23.5 million over his final two years of team control, Raleigh is under team control for three seasons with a projected 2025 salary of $5.6 million. Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Hoerner a surplus value of $19.2 million and Raleigh a surplus value of $37.5 million. With the $23.5 million left on his contract, BTV projects Hoerner with a future value of $42.7 million over the two years. BTV projects Raleigh with $28 million in salary and a future value of $65.5 million over the three years. In other words, BTV projects Hoerner to be worth $21.4 million annually and Raleigh to be worth about $21.8 million annually. A healthy Raleigh has one added year of team control, but are Hoerner's injury risks taken into account? Given the injury risk, does Hoerner's guaranteed money reduce his trade value? Earlier this month, beat reporter Patrick Mooney at The Athletic wrote: "Even if Hoerner’s estimated return won’t be known until he reports for spring training, this setback would seemingly take that trade concept off the table." https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5899464/2024/11/05/cubs-nico-hoerner-injury-matt-shaw/ Feedback is welcome.

We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to a systematic, somewhat transparent, valuation system versus the bald opinion of some anonymous dude on the internet. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-minor-leaguers

Let's not forget that it's two years of Nico Hoerner at $23.5 million versus five years of Bryce Miller, next year at a league minimum salary followed by four arbitration seasons.

Indeed this offseason the Cubs may not find a taker for Nico Hoerner because of the the injury concerns. Steamer projects Nico Hoerner with a 2025 WAR of 3.0, which this year was valued at about $24.2 million, in 139 games. Prorated over two seasons of team control, a healthy Hoerner could be projected to be worth about $48.5 million. With the $23.5 million guaranteed Hoerner, a rudimentary calculation would leave Hoerner with a net value of about $25 million. Durability is an efficiency targeted in the pitching market. Teams value a pitcher who eats innings, reducing the workload on the bullpen and perhaps even freeing up a roster slot. This year Seattle had four starters who pitched more innings than Shota Imanaga, who led the Cubs with 173.1 innings pitched. That's one reason why the Mariner starters are highly coveted ... and why they're likely to stay in Seattle.

Would anyone trade the onerous contract of Cody Bellinger to the Yankees for former Cub right-hander Marcus Stroman, who likely has two years and $36.5 million remaining on his contract? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/176540 Bellinger's contract calls for one year at $32.5 million or, if he exercises a 2026 player option, two years at $52.5 million.

What is the current trade value of Nico Hoerner after the second baseman underwent flexor tendon surgery on his right forearm on October 11? Is an update on his prognosis available? Baseball Trade Values assigns Hoerner a current surplus value of $19.4 million. What is curious is that BTV gave Hoerner a surplus value of only $14.1 million eight days before the surgery (and $13.7 million on August 25 and $37.2 million shortly before the trade deadline). Seattle starters have these current BTV surplus trade values: George Kirby ($111.4 million), Logan Gilbert ($65.6 million), Bryan Woo ($47.5 million) and Bryce Miller ($47.2 million). Of course no team adopts the BTV assessments in toto. Each franchise has an internal proprietary valuation system that may reflect a greater or lesser value disparity beween Hoerner and a Seattle starter. We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to a systematic somewhat transparent valuation system and to the bald opinion of some anonymous dude on the internet. Seattle reportedly has less than $25 million to spend this offseason. The Mariners would be unwise to use about half of that total in a trade of Miller at the league minimum for a two-year commitment and 2025 salary of $11.5 million for Hoerner coming off a concerning surgery.

Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto probably likes Nico Hoerner but not at the cost of five years of right-hander Bryce Miller for the two years and $23 million remaining on Hoerner's contract. Roster Resource currently lists Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore at second base for the Mariners. The 32-year-old Moore has a career OPS+ of 101, including an OPS+ of 108 this year when he posted 2.2 bWAR in 135 games. As a point of reference, Hoerner has a career OPS+ 100, including an OPS+ of 101 this year when he posted 3.7 bWAR in 151 games. Seattle may well seek a second-base upgrade from Moore, who is under contract at $3.9 million next season. Moore may be better-suited for the utility role that brought home the Gold Glove. The Mariners would need a rotation replacement if Seattle traded a starting pitcher. The cost of that replacement undermines any upgrade Hoerner might provide at second base even if Hoerner recovers from forearm flexor surgery. https://www.mlb.com/news/nico-hoerner-flexor-tendon-surgery-on-right-forearm In a trade for Hoerner, Seattle might be willing to part with prospects whom the Cubs could package with their touted prospects in a trade for, say, White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet. But in a win-now mode, the Mariners are unlikely to include Miller (or George Kirby, Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo) in a trade for Hoerner. Trivia: Hoerner teamed with Tommy Edman in the middle infield at Stanford when my daughter was a student there. I attended this game: https://gostanford.com/boxscore/1452

Close call: https://www.mlb.com/news/power-rankings-2025-mlb-season https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42080015/mlb-2025-way-too-early-power-rankings-dodgers-yankees-mets https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5890641/2024/11/04/2025-mlb-power-rankings-offseason/

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns Matt Shaw a surplus value of $23.9 million and Nico Hoerner a surplus value of $19.4 million while assigning four Seattle starters the following surplus values: George Kirby ($111.4 million), Logan Gilbert ($65.6 million), Bryce Miller ($50.8 million) and Bryan Woo ($50.5 million). After averaging 88+ wins over the past four seasons Seattle is unlikely to trade an established cost-controlled starter for a package of lesser assets.

This year the Cubs posted a team wRC+ of 101 while Seattle's "no-offense roster" posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15. The Mariners have the American League's fourth-best cumulative regular-season record over the past four seasons but have landed only one postseason berth, finishing one game back of the final Wild Card slot twice and two games back once. The Cubs and Mariners are at different stages in their returns to relevance.

On Thursday Baseball Trade Values assigned Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh a surplus value of $28.7 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/175538 Raleigh may be the most underrated player in baseball. Spotrac gives Raleigh a current market value of $194 million over eight years for an AAV of $24.2 million: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26119/cal-raleigh Over the past three seasons Raleigh has posted an fWAR of 14.0, valued at $110.2 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cal-raleigh/21534/stats?position=C#value Raleigh, who turns 28 years old this month, has three years of team control with a projected 2025 salary of only $5.6 million. After winning this year's AL Gold Glove at catcher, Raleigh this week was awarded the Platinum Glove as the American League's top defensive player overall. In addition, Raleigh has been nominated for the Silver Slugger award after hitting 34 home runs and driving in 100 runs on a club that for much of the season struggled to score runs. Raleigh's value to Seattle's vaunted pitching staff is difficult to quantify but the Mariner pitchers might revolt if Raleigh were traded. Regardless of the BTV assessment, the Seattle Mariners probably value Raleigh more than any player on the team.

Intelligence may be artificial for someone who suffers from an impostor syndrome.

Bear in mind that Seattle hopes to contend again in 2025 after posting the AL's fourth-best cumulative regular season record over the past four seasons. Baseball Trade Values assigns George Kirby a surplus value of $111.4 million and Logan Gilbert a surplus value of $65.6 million. In the unlikely event of a trade, the Mariners would want quality, not quantity, in return. Can the Cubs make a viable offer at those prices? Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo would be a more realistic trade target. The Mariners indeed hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 104 (just as the Cubs hope to improve on their team OPS+ of 100).

Would anyone trade three years of Isaac Paredes, with a projected 2025 salary of $5.25 million, for three years of Seattle righthander Luis Castillo at about $74 million?