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Magnetic Curses

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Everything posted by Magnetic Curses

  1. Magnetic Curses
    when i was at the cubs-rockies series at coors in 04, the guy behind me kept trying to get me to do the wave as it came by. i kept saying that i'm a baseball fan and what's going on on the field is far more interesting than a bunch of casual fans trying to create a carnival atmosphere. why do you come to a basbeall game if you'd have a much better time at elitch gardens? there is a myth that cub fans populate wrigley for the atmosphere. My only experiences with the wave at baseball games were at the Vet, Shea and Petco, with the one at Petco being the most enthusiastic and consistent. they do it at miller. i'd imagine that you won't find it at fenway or yankee stadium. I've seen it attempted at Yankee Stadium, but the layout makes it very difficult. For most games, there is nobody from right center to extreme left field. There's a block of bleachers that is usually empty, or close to it. Plus, the lower deck is sort of blocked off in boxes, as opposed to the typical stadium setup of lots of rows. While the upper deck is the last to fill up, extremely steep and practically cutoff from the lower deck (you can barely see the people below you). It just doesn't flow. They have their own silly traditions, like chanting out players names until they are acknowledged over most of the first inning, non-stop fights in the bleachers, the YMCA, Cotton-eyed Joe and really bad hot dogs. that makes sense, and is really funny. stadiums like the old busch, riverfront, 3-rivers, the cell, the kingdome, and the like have been pretty perfect for it. maybe that's why it's been so popular.
  2. Magnetic Curses
    when i was at the cubs-rockies series at coors in 04, the guy behind me kept trying to get me to do the wave as it came by. i kept saying that i'm a baseball fan and what's going on on the field is far more interesting than a bunch of casual fans trying to create a carnival atmosphere. why do you come to a basbeall game if you'd have a much better time at elitch gardens? there is a myth that cub fans populate wrigley for the atmosphere. My only experiences with the wave at baseball games were at the Vet, Shea and Petco, with the one at Petco being the most enthusiastic and consistent. they do it at miller. i'd imagine that you won't find it at fenway or yankee stadium.
  3. Magnetic Curses
    sulley's hierarchy of baseball needs: 1. starting pitching 2. OBP 3. SLG 4. relief pitching everything else is far, far behind these 4. with starting pitching, you could break it down further: 1. whip 2. strikeouts per 9 3. G/F ratio 4. K/BB ratio
  4. Magnetic Curses
    when i was at the cubs-rockies series at coors in 04, the guy behind me kept trying to get me to do the wave as it came by. i kept saying that i'm a baseball fan and what's going on on the field is far more interesting than a bunch of casual fans trying to create a carnival atmosphere. why do you come to a basbeall game if you'd have a much better time at elitch gardens? there is a myth that cub fans populate wrigley for the atmosphere.
  5. Magnetic Curses
    i think it's even more blind to trust your eyes in a sport that has a 162 game regular season.
  6. Magnetic Curses
    he looked a lot like the guy he is often compared to, barry zito. it appeared that most hitters were having a real tough time distinguishing between his fastball and curveball as it came out of his hand. they were late on a lot of high, outside fastballs that normally wouldn't be too hard to go the other way with.
  7. Magnetic Curses
    just give it up, we are living in a new baseball age, an age where all but a few GM's base their philosophy on more than just anecdotal evidence. i'm not sure why it's so hard to see. there's no use in hiding from it, the truth will set you free. I agree we should use more than anecdotal evidence, but one shouldn't dismiss anecdotal evidence either. I doubt in a situation like this defensively where all the anecdotal evidence points one way, and defensive metrics point the other way that most GM's are going to go with the defensive metrics over the anecdotal evidence. They use the metrics, but that's not the only thing they use. If they did, it would be extremely hard to evaluate any player. Take a player like Orlando Cabrera for example-he went from a 3 one season to a -3 the next season to a 7 in 2005, the very next year. Did he significantly change on defense in those 3 years, and which year was truly indicative of his ability? Anecdotal evidence can tell you that-and by the way, his negative number was the year that the Red Sox traded for him in order to upgrade their defense. you're using anecdotes to prove that anecdotes are valid.
  8. Magnetic Curses
    Did you even see the hit? Brown barely touched him, Urlacher's hit wasn't that bad and what I'd expect of practice. It really didn't look that bad, I hope it's not too serious. no, i didn't see it, and the report that i heard on espn 1000 was that urlacher and brown "pinballed" benson as he was making a catch over the middle. i only knew what i was told, so i apologize for the knee-jerk response. that said, urlacher and brown both acted like benson was on a different team when questioned about it.
  9. Magnetic Curses
    Absolutely. Neifi is a better defender than Izturis. Cesar's 2005 fielding rate: 108 His career fielding rate: 101 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/izturce01.shtml Neifi's 2005 fielding rate: 115 His career fielding rate: 111 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/perezne01.shtml By PMR, Neifi is shown to have been much better in 2005: http://anaheimangelsblog.blogspot.com/2006/01/pmr-redux-shortstops-update-david.html Just because some Dodgers fans (who probably watch as many Cubs games as I watch Dodgers games) think he's the best fielder in baseball doesn't mean it's true. And Dewan's method of rating middle infielders is pretty flawless, by the way. Well, there's an example of it. Cesar was hurt half of 2005, and both his offense and defense suffered from it. There have been multiple places that said his defense suffered from it, and I think Izturis himself might have said that his defense was worse than usual because of the injuries. The defensive metrics have him as better than his career average though! Also, doesn't the numbers for Neifi concern you just a bit? Why would a player who is getting older and was always known for his defense suddenly have a better than average year? That's what I don't understand-his speed has certainly gone down since he was a younger player-so what has dramatically improved? As I mentioned in another thread, BP had Sosa as a 7 in 2004, while Ichiro had a 1 that year. I simply cannot look at those numbers and say that they are right, that Sosa was a much better right fielder than Ichiro that year defensively. It just doesn't add up for me right now-I think they are getting closer with defensive metrics, but there are still many numbers like that one right there that just make you wonder about how reliable it actually is. just give it up, we are living in a new baseball age, an age where all but a few GM's base their philosophy on more than just anecdotal evidence. i'm not sure why it's so hard to see. there's no use in hiding from it, the truth will set you free.
  10. Magnetic Curses
    if we want the perfect number 2 hitter, we trade whatever we have and whatever the reds need for ryan freel. that guy is a player. wonder if marshall, cedeno, and novoa would do it.
  11. Magnetic Curses
    Grudzielanek has a club option next year. My guess, and this is pure speculation, is that the Royals will pick it up. Grudzielanek is one hell of a player. A perfect 2 hitter on a playoff team. Puts the ball in play, dosent strike out much, and moves the runner over. grudzielanek is not very good and isn't getting any younger. this notion that he's some kind of small-ball god isn't accurate either. he had 2 sacrifices last year for the cardinals in 563 PA's. he's become a simple slap hitter that doesn't get on base well and would consider himself successful if he hits the ball out of the infield. simply because he has a stubble-beard, short arms and legs, no neck and appears to be a "gritty little ballplayer" that conventional minds would value, doesn't mean that anyoner values him anymore. he's not good.
  12. Magnetic Curses
    i agree with dan bernstein--urlacher is a "desert simpleton". if you live in the midwest, it's the same thing as a "river rat"; in the west, it's "mountain people"; in the east, it's good ol' "hillbilly". i guess that's not the point, because mike brown is supposed to be "real smart", at least he should have known better.
  13. Magnetic Curses
    this doesn't really work because the adjusted doubles don't have nearly the same value as the actual doubles. doubles are generally gap-hits, which are run producers with men on base. you'd have to find a way to accurately weight these adjusted doubles so as to reflect their actual value. you see, statistics in practice isn't just blind numbers. adjustments ARE actually made for certain situations.
  14. Magnetic Curses
    What other year were we last in the league? Last year we were much closer to the middle then to last. They were last in walks, but 11th in OBP (out of 16 NL teams) thanks to ranking 3rd in AVG (2nd in SLG). They were .005 away from last place, but .009 away from the midpoint. So, while they were closer to the middle in terms of rank, they were actually closer to last in terms of the actual number. Combined over the past two years they probably will have the worst total OBP. The lack of walks is, by far, the single greatest contributor to the poor offensive performance during the Dusty Baker era. They've had good batting averages and bad averages. They've hit well with RISP and poorly with RISP. They've hit for lots of power and no power. But they've consistently been at or near the bottom of the barrell in the NL in the walks department (14th, 14th, 16th, 16th). It's a huge problem, they refuse to admit it and fix it, and far too many fans and experts accept that as perfectly OK since the walk just isn't the manly thing to do. perfectly put. everyone needs to read this post.
  15. Magnetic Curses
    i'd never pay podsednik to come here and play left field, that would be pretty terrible, but i don't think he'd be as terrible as everyone thinks out in center--playing center is easier than a corner position if one possesses speed. it's simply the perception that center is tougher to play that has stopped ozzie from playing podsednik there. good point on roberts, though.
  16. Magnetic Curses
    i really thought that he'd go out to that graveyard for old ballplayers and never be heard from again, weird. i'd forgotten that lopez even existed. who in their right mind would go to baltimore? tejada, a former MVP who is having his best season--is barely even heard from playing there.
  17. Magnetic Curses
    In what way shape or form? Well, Pierre is considered to be a marginally bigger threat on the bases than Posednik. Also, as much as we have been upset at Pierre for how he plays center, Posednik is that much worse. When their offensive games are so similar, the tiebreaker should either be amount of contract (which I don't know what either of them will ask for) or their other attributes, which Pierre is better at. It would still be a very close call between the two players, but the fact that a natural center fielder by both speed and the limited offense that Podsednik brings was moved to left is a telling sign I think. Considered to be marginally bigger threat on the bases? By whom? Pods is more successful stealing. And he makes considerably less money. You can't just claim Pierre is "better in every category" and expect not to be called on that completely made up and arbitrary statement. I'm fine with being called out-especially since Pierre has been more successful at stealing bases each of the last 2 seasons. 2005-Podsednik-59 steals, 23 times caught Pierre- 57 steals, 17 times caught 2006-Podsednik-30 steals, 13 times caught Pierre- 38 steals, 12 times caught Podsednik's percentage is going down and is getting caught much more frequently than earlier in his career, while Pierre is staying level to his career. So yes, Pierre is now considered to be marginally better on the basepaths. Great post and I didn't realize that at all. perfect example of why small-ball doesn't work--even with fast players. giving up outs by needlessly trying to steal is stupid. there are only a few guys in the league whom i'd give the perpetual green light to, and neither of these guys is one of them. the stealing is not what i like about podsednik, it's his plate discipline--which is much more important than speed or steals or bunting the runner over.
  18. Magnetic Curses
    trade marshall and cedeno to the reds for freel. don't sign pierre. let aram walk. trade wuertz, another prospect for corey koskie. re-sign wood to incentive-laden deal. extend zambrano through the next century. sign sheffield sign schmidt move jones to CF 1. Freel 2b 2. Murton LF 3. Lee 1b 4. Sheffield RF 5. Barrett C 6. Koskie 3b 7. Jones LF 8. Izturis SS Zambrano Schmidt Prior Hill Marmol Novoa Ohman Howry Eyre Wood Dempster Although i'd rather dump jones for a shoe horn, acquire brady clark along with koskie, and bat Clark and freel 1-2. yes, i have mad man love for brady clark, who is possibly one of the least appreciated players in the game--although paid fairly.
  19. Magnetic Curses
    offensively, he's far superior to pierre, who actually is quite pathetic. He's not far superior..38 points better in OPS this year, 20 points better last year-Posednik's last year is the same as this year for Pierre, and this year for Posednik is his best year in his last 3. Also, Posednik had his hot streak earlier in the season and Pierre is still going on his for a leadoff man, pierre does not walk enough, his IsoD is terrible. podsednik has recently discovered that fearing the strikeout is futile, and has shrunk his own strike zone. if pierre ever learned to stop swinging at everything close to the zone, he would be the better leadoff man, as it is, he's a 8th spot hitter, imo.
  20. Magnetic Curses
    They are in first place, in their division. They aren't a contender by any stretch. The AL west is weak and they are on pace to win it with just 85 wins. The Cubs better not do anything with the hopes of winning just 85. You act as if the low OPS is the reason they are in first. The Cubs need to try and build a potential 100 win team. Their payroll demands it, and allows for such a goal. They should try and build the best team possible, not accept crap just because it's there. guys like barrett, jones and dempster were called "crap" by many people here when they were signed or traded for. i even recall that many people were lamenting trading choi for lee. look at what a bust furcal has been in La and has anyone looked what bradley & giles are doing btw? not all that glitters is gold. do the cubs suck? because that's what it looks like to me. hendry has put together a freaking lemon of a baseball team. he's capped it off by trading for the "glittering" cesar izturis, a horrendously overvalued, overapid, underperforming player.
  21. Magnetic Curses
    They are in first place, in their division. They aren't a contender by any stretch. The AL west is weak and they are on pace to win it with just 85 wins. The Cubs better not do anything with the hopes of winning just 85. You act as if the low OPS is the reason they are in first. The Cubs need to try and build a potential 100 win team. Their payroll demands it, and allows for such a goal. They should try and build the best team possible, not accept crap just because it's there. guys like barrett, jones and dempster were called "crap" by many people here when they were signed or traded for. i even recall that many people were lamenting trading choi for lee. look at what a bust furcal has been in La and has anyone looked what bradley & giles are doing btw? not all that glitters is gold. giles is not a glittering player, he is valuable under the radar.
  22. Magnetic Curses
    offensively, he's far superior to pierre, who actually is quite pathetic.
  23. Magnetic Curses
    yes, it's true, he's a better free agent option than pierre--and would be better served to move back to center, as the angles in left don't seem to be treating him too well. OBP is decent, IsoD is great. he's fast and he's got patience. he's devalued right now, this offseason would be the perfect time to snatch him up.
  24. Magnetic Curses
    There is talent in the pitching department, but you still need hitting... agreed but there is some talent there for next year too. they have a core of aram, lee, barrett & jones. it looks like pierre might be re-signed soon due to his extended offensive surge and i hope they haven't given up on murton yet. if izzy can hit .280 + with a .750 ops and cedeno & fontenot can handle 2b. what in the world would lead you to believe that he'll be anywhere near .750 when his career high is .711 and every other year he's been under .700? i might also add that he has had back-to-back seasons posting a sub-.600 OPS. i reiterate, 3 players with sub-.700 OPS's in any lineup will kill said lineup. a batting order consists of 9 hitters, you cannot put 4 dead bats out there and expect to score any runs. i'd be interested to find out if it's ever been done before, you know, 3 players with sub-.700 OPS's on a playoff team. the pitching would definitely have to be superb, which i won't hold my breath on. EDIT: the astros made the world series last year with 3: taveras, burke, and everett. you know, the astros of the 3.51 team era.
  25. Magnetic Curses
    The problem is...we need both of them plus another front line pitcher. Unless the Trib raises the payroll up to $120 million or so we're in deep doo doo in 2007...yet again. I think any deal for Tejada and Baltimore would want Z. That just can't happen. I'm not so sure. The NL just stinks and it'll prolly be the same next year. If we add another starter and a Soriano or Lee, we can compete with anyone in the NL. I really believe that...Of course we need to stay healthy... if beane didn't have to rely on developing players with high IsoD while making a few minor deals then he'd have a point, but hendry is in control of a major market franchise. and why won't some people just admit that not making outs contributes to scoring runs? i'm not sure why people are against not making outs, maybe they want the cubs to make outs at a higher rate (if that's even possible)?
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