neely crenshaw
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Everything posted by neely crenshaw
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Serious question, what does getting Sappelt off the roster do? Is it simply because he's been awful or does it save vesting time, or is it for development sake. He certainly hasn't been anything like his stint at cincy, and getting sporadic at bats does not help anyone get going.
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I think in most people's plans for rebuilding, we need greatness out of Castro and Rizzo. Not just good, but great. Without that, we are either having to spend more money on high end offensive players, or delaying this process even longer. That's what makes this possible "trend" a significant potential problem.
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The high end of the zips progression is basically 2011, with a little more pop (.50 points more ops). Obviously that would be a nice player, especially if his defense rounds out but I have seen too many projections of him being that .320-25 home run "special" player. If we had a brand new 22 year old SS that came up and posted Castro's last year stats, we would all be very pleased, but we are expecting/hoping/needing Castro (and Rizzo for that matter) to be superstars and then some... I'd also have to say that those zips projections are no where near what most posters had in mind for Castro.
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Right now Trammell would be a welcome comp/career for Castro, and not even in terms of longevity. Trammell even had a little dip in average at age 23-24 and then back up into the .300's. The problem I see is that "IF" Castro managed to have an offensive career comparable to Trammell (which would be about 2011 levels) I think grand expectations for him would make far too many disappointed in that type of career.
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My hope is that he has consciously or subconsciously been pressing the past year plus. I hope that is he is the type of player that will perform better with better players around him. He and Rizzo both have to feel the weight of the organization on them at all times. Even as many are playing well, the Cubs record has to make them feel like they have to do even more. I hope that's the reason for not only lack of progression but actually going backwards in many ways. I think you're right Kyle(not speak for Tim, either). Expectations can really tarnish your feelings on reality.
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Sounds like the paper is blowing things out of proportion. Doesn't seem like the manager was expecting him nor does it sound like he is AWOL. He probably has some things to take care of. It's different being on a rehab assignment and moving to AAA full time. He was probably living out of a suitcase. It sounded like he was ok with it, knew it was coming and knows he needs it. He probably has to get some things in order where ever he lives full time, and get things for an extended stay in Des Moines. If he was so upset that he would go "awol" why would he have excepted the assignment. It's well known I have never been a Stewart fan, but for this to be the time for guys to turn on him seems odd. It sure seems he's not doing anything idiotic.
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Thanks for commenting....
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Yes, there is some statistical data that says we should have a better record. There is also have pitchers who are far outperforming there norms...can they continue? We have hitters far outperforming even our hopes for them...can they continue? Our bullpen is being bouyed by Kevin Gregg. So my worry is that as we begin to hit with RISP, and our awful bullpen gets to a somewhat stable point, these other areas fall back to norms..balancing out the equation. Also keep in mind that we are "only 4 games behind" our projected average but we are also 5-3 vs Miami and San Diego but 6-17 against everyone else. Since we play a lot of more of the "everybody else" we may play better, hit better, field better and see only marginal improvement in our record.
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My bad! missed that completely. Appreciate you pointing that out without any "extras". I still found the half year comp of Durham intriguing/weird! Two young Cubs First baseman, who played exactly 87 games each, and posted almost identical stat lines..
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OK I can go with the age, that gives us hope, but he is at .328 according to baseball reference. It's hard for me to say he can do something easily...when he has never done it. Lee and Durham both broke in at 24, a year older than Rizzo. They both posted stats that Rizzo hasn't yet. They both basically maintained that same performance for the next 6-7 years, why are we so sure Rizzo will make a leap from very good to "generational"? Pujols was generational..he broke in at 21, and never hit below .312 for the next 10 years. He has 1 year below .997 OPS, and that was still .955 . 4 seasons were above1.100 OPS Fielder broke in at 22, he has posted .287 avg .932ops in those 8 season hitting 30 or more every year but 1 (25) how about this for a comp: Rizzo 2012 (age 22) 87 games .285 avg .342 ob% .805 ops Durham 1981 (age 23) 87 games .290 avg .344 ob% .804ops
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He's never done that, other than in the PCL where is batting average was 70-80 points higher than any other year. Heck, if he picks it up a bit he can be Leon Durham circa '81-'87....
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Derrek Lee would actually be the closest comp. he was hitting .280s with homeruns in the high 20's with a OPS in the higher .800's Votto has pretty much hit over .300 every year since he was 24(hit .297) with mid 20's hrs and he lowest ops was .874, his average OPS has got to be .950's- So Rizzo has a ways to go to even get in that realm. He's actually more like the national league Adam Dunn (a little lower on ops) than he is like Votto. How about before we elect him to the Hall of Fame we allow him to play an entire season, hit .270 get to 30hrs and post an .850 ops Derrek Lee age 24- .281 28hr .875ops very good, but certainly not "generational".
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Agreed. It's a tough call. I was thinking leaving Wood as the only lefty but I also think whoever is least likely trade bait might go to the pen in order to showcase the other guys. (Obviously other than Shark and Jackson) After last year it's kind of a nice problem to have.
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Might be hard to OPS .1200 with an .800 SLG. excellent point
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I think someone has to be moved out. Perhaps they'll get a spot start but not on any regular basis. A week ago it was Feldman, no doubt but 2 very good starts bring him up. Wood has thrown well and is the only lefty. Doesn't it seem like it would be Jackson other than the big money? My guess is Villanueva because he has bounced back and forth in the past and can get right back in when/if a trade is made.
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look I can do it too... http://jansport.com/blog/unzipped/files/2013/02/smart-cat.jpg "by my computations, it shows that because he has a ld% of .150 in 5 day games, he'll hit .350 and his fWAR will be 40..."
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You guys are right. I'll join the club. I think Rizzo, based on his last 7 games is heading for a .400,50 hr and 140 rbi season with an .800 slg, .1200 ops because that's what his split is, so it has to be true. or maybe we should re-post the batting tips for Rizzo because guys here are better hitting coaches than the ones that are employed by the major leagues and work with tons of tape on his swing.
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You can look for hope in small sample stats, the problem is you don't know if that hope is real or imagined. These are based on long term data. In the short term you don't know if his low babip or LD% is because of poor luck or poor hitting. They generalize major league stats as every line drive or ball in play is the same. In reality you can hit "line drives" all day that are never going to hits-ever. They are not going to jump up to a normal MLB percentage because they aren't hit well. Unless you analyze every single ball hit, you can't judge whether the babip should go up...much like Stewart last year. I don't think Rizzo is in that category but posting these stats as "proof" things will change and everything is just fine with him is ridiculous. Things may be fine but those splits are meaningless in that argument. I am more encouraged by his consistent contact and multiple hit games over the past week, than by low babip or his early OPS.
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Wait, I thought this was a done deal.... It's cold and rainy, and day baseball looks like it might be canceled today so.. 2 questions: If they did move 1. Would "losing" Wrigley field keep you from going to games? 2. Would you rather have them construct a brand new modern park, or rebuild "wrigley" with all the modern bells and whistles?
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yes and no. Every move is great when it works, and bad when it doesn't. I still think that if we have a solid bullpen, he gets Wood after he allows the first 2 runners to get on in the 8th. In truth so many little things happened to cost us the game that it's hard to blame the manager. Moves could have been different but there is no way of knowing if the same things wouldn't have happened anyway. On a side note, I was completely wrong, our bullpen is great and there are no problems there. I do have to apologize for being the first poster ever to over react to his frustration with this team in a post.
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are you even watching the game? this is not on the pitching in the slightest bit. my god Well, a little bit. A walk and a HBP and a pretty bad pitch that was a passed ball. Like 2% their fault and 98% only sully's teams. I was kind of speaking in general. This isn't their first problem, just kind of putting us over the edge. I'm sure our outstanding bullpen probably had nothing to do with leaving Wood in a little too long either.... he ended up with 96 pitches Was he laboring in the 8th? sure looked like it to me.
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are you even watching the game? this is not on the pitching in the slightest bit. my god Well, a little bit. A walk and a HBP and a pretty bad pitch that was a passed ball. Like 2% their fault and 98% only sully's teams. I was kind of speaking in general. This isn't their first problem, just kind of putting us over the edge. I'm sure our outstanding bullpen probably had nothing to do with leaving Wood in a little too long either....
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Does anyone want to go back to that discussion of how our bullpen was so much better and different than last year?
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It's true. Between the heat and all the beer, I'm usually ready to pass out by 6 or 7pm. Hate that. isn't that the idea?
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http://sports.yahoo.com/news/cubs-chairman-case-massive-scoreboard-111733026.html Found this interesting I wonder, if this is so cut and dry, why they would need to bring up this threat? I personally have no problem with the threat especially since they are not holding up tax payers to pay for this. I think they should have left that on the table the entire negotiation. As "someone" said earlier it makes more sense for the neighborhood to work something out, their property would be worthless without the cubs.