Lefty

In any competitive business, if you think you see what someone else doesn't, you are probably wrong. But there are those times where you are just convinced, act on it, are right, and it is just glorious (I'm a trader). I thought Lee had a lousy year at First Base. While he won the Gold Glove, the new defensive metrics had him smack in the middle of First Basemen. I thought his speed was gone. Dan Fox' baserunning metrics at Baseball Prospectus had DLee as one of the poorer baserunners in the NL. His home/road splits were extreme. On the road he was probably close to the bottom for First Base productivity. I thought he lost a lot of his ability to go with the pitch away. How many called strike threes did he take on the outside corner? If I am right, have the Cubs noticed it? Have other teams ? Have any of you? I don't know if Loney, mentioned on this board as a possibility, is any better. But do we have another problem in the lineup hitting us sooner than we thought?

I've had Randy Winn on my brain for a while. I assumed it would be for Murton. But there was talk the other day of Marquis in an exchange of bad contracts. That's better, if not optimal.

You're forgetting we also got Trachsel's big win in Houston which let us use Zambrano in the first game against the Cards. :wink:

Why was he used in relief in Arizona? Were they trying to limit his innings?

Henry Blanco looks healthy.

What is the price for that improved production?

I took Murton's splits and projected them to full time status with him facing a LHP 28% of the time. For 2005 I simply added enough ABs against RHPs to get him to the same 28%/72% split. It is not meant to be scientifically precise, but I think it gets us pretty close. And to paraphrase Dennis Green, he is who we think he is. But is that enough? And if it is enough for the money, does Hendry have no belief in these projections? Is this a declining trend or way too small a sample given how he has been jerked around (excuse the commentary)? 2005 248 AB 13 HR .294/.362/.504 .866 OPS 2006 566 AB 16 HR .295/.362/.443 .805 OPS 2007 567 AB 19 HR .275/.341/.427 .768 OPS

Who is Ray?

Cedeno could probably be had for a marginal prospect at this point. Quite a collection of marginal middle infielders. I apologize if this has already been mentioned, but I looked through most of the thread and didn't see it anywhere else. In the SI.com piece, towards the end it says: I had never heard anything about Ronny in the outfiled until now. Is this just posturing, or are they really that crazy? I really hope there is something going on behind the scenes on this. I saw the interview. He said that Fuld and Pie would fight it out for CF because that position is a speed & defense position. He then expressly said that RF would be addressed through Free Agency or Trade. For better or worse, that means Murton will not be our everyday RF. I know most of us want Fukodome (from what's available) and figure we'll get Randy Winn. The silver lining is if Hendry is going speed and D in CF, he'll get a "bat" in RF. Let's see what Hendry considers a "bat."

Single-A pitcher Graham Taylor. Was it Taylor for sure? Look it never happened. Maybe because the Marlins didn't want to part with Taylor. But that was the name reported. Ok, I was just wondering because there were so few details coming out at the time on the exacts. Taylor had such a ridiculous K/BB ratio last season. College pitcher. Old for his level.

Single-A pitcher Graham Taylor. Was it Taylor for sure? Look it never happened. Maybe because the Marlins didn't want to part with Taylor. But that was the name reported.

Single-A pitcher Graham Taylor.

There has to be a reference to the World Champion Red Sox. I.e., "..he gives us speed, like Ellsbury.." Or, "he's versatile, like Youkilis.."

Careerwise Infante is .271/.316/.425 on the road in a superior league. Forget what we've read. Maybe he can play shortstop; maybe he hits .280/.330/.450 for us? Market has sold off since the trade became official so what do I know.

Hendry putting all his bags in one basket and not getting his man? Could never happen. :wink:

Why? Did the Red Sox win with versatility?

As much as I hate Hendry professionally, maybe he already has Fukodome signed. He would need to trade Jones first if he hopes Detroit will take all the salary.

I've been a Cub fan for over 35 years and you wouldn't believe how long that list is. And I don't know how many of those guys you've ever heard of.

Jacque is solid in RF only in that he is neither a liquid nor a vapor. Post of the year nominee.

No need to apologize to me, I'll take that. But can I ask you a few questions since you are the man with the numbers? How do your PT assessments compare with normal patterns? I.e., even if a guy is healthy all year, do they necessarily play in 95% of their team's games? How did the Cubs do versus what PECOTA had them pegged for in 2007? And finally, were our actual runs scored meaningfully different from what any of the Runs Created formulas would have predicted? Also, Jones was not awful against LHPs this year (small sample). You are giving him 90% playing time. I think he'd be hard pressed to have a .337 OBP in that scenario. Probably doesn't alter your projection that much though. But unless your answers are a surprise to me, and the Cubs were "unlucky," expecting an older team to score 50 more runs without major changes in personnel seems farfetched. Crappy bench players play and drag things down. This ain't Strat-O-Matic.

The love was from Baker. And that's big love.

Boy, he gives up two runs and I am kind of bummed.

Meph, you are too quick to see offensive improvement. If you go to ESPN.com you can see the breakdown of offense by position. The crazy thing is that Murton and Floyd hit like Soriano when they played LF. Our LFers hit 39 HRs. Is Soriano going to beat that? Our RFs hit about what the most enthusiastic Murton supporter would hope .293/.375/.419. The only chance for offensive improvement in the OF is if Jones or Pie hits 20 HRs. In the infield you have a similar problem. Even with Ramirez sitting 20% of the time, our third basemen hit .310/.366/.520. Our second basemen produced along the lines of DeRosa in total .286/.353/.413. Any gain in the infield besides SS comes down to Lee hitting more HRs than last year. We can hope but it is not a gimme. It would seem that catcher would be an easy improvement. But I am not so sure. Barrett was mediocre for a third of the season, but had 8 HRs. Kendall had a decent OBP for a third of the season. Soto played a little and padded the numbers. But over a full season I don't see Soto/Blanco doing much better than the .239/.304/.369 line of 2007. I mean Blanco or Hill will catch at least thirty games. And do we really know what kind of hitter Soto is? Offensive improvement will not come hoping what we have on hand will improve. Whether we will (or should) spend the money or whether appropriate players are available is the question. But it would seem that we can't take too many offensive positions off the table.

Brandon Wood will be a Marlin soon enough. Miguel Cabrera, come on down! Honestly, if I am the Marlins I would ask for Kendry Morales over Brandon Wood. So that Wood would still be available to the Cubs? I'm surprised Meph, Morales is a commodity.

That's an awful "matter-of-fact" statement for someone who doesn't work in the Reds front office, and therefore has little to no idea what they would consider. How do you know what the Reds would do? It's a fact that the Reds want pitching. It's a fact that to get a #2 starter, you will have to give up value. It's a fact that releasing Ryan Freel in no way fetches you anything at all in return. So, again, how can you be so certain as to what the Reds would do? Perhaps my language was inexact. "I believe there is a greater chance that the Reds release Ryan Freel than trade Hamilton for the proposed package." I am flattered that you take my posts so seriously. I was under the impression that this was a fan's board. The tenor of your reply indicates that I am under some obligation to check with the Reds' front office, assuming I do not work for them, before publishing such a post. Maybe one of the moderators can clear that up. And what was the tenor of your reply to the original post? You belittled him for suggesting that Hamilton might be available. How is your reply fine and dandy, while mine is not? Honestly, I don't see the difference in "tenor" between your post and mine. Well I apologize to BacktoBanks (BtB) if he was offended. But he was only quoting Phil Rogers. As such the statement does not even reflect on BtB. I believe Rogers' statement is the throwaway statement. I am obviously fine with BtB running with it, and my comment on it is that it is highly improbable that Hamilton is going anywhere.