CaliforniaRaisin

even if you're ready to give him outsized credit in their overall P dev, mostly all their guys, Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger/Civale/Karinchak etc. were mid-late round finds- that should further remove the desperate need to expend such a heavy investment in the position, where you're still making a big reach with a top-10 pick against the universal consensus this is likely to remain a bad offensive ballclub for a long while (like CLE), which i fundamentally hate, and that really puts all our eggs in the Craig Breslow basket to be strongly competitive Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger… etc fit a similar profile coming out of the draft, but Cleveland pivoted pretty hard in the last couple years targeting power pitching early. Both Espino and Williams were first round power pitchers. Obviously it’s hard to know how much specific involvement Carter had there, but to then see them target power pitchers heavily was intriguing. It’s still a risky strategy, but it’s intriguing. Heck, even the year before the Bieber draft, they took Triston McKenzie in the first. Completely different risk profile.

Rujano has apparently already committed to the Cubs. Kantro said he expected 18 or 19 to sign. I'm guessing Blatter is the guy who won't sign, and will go to Alabama and the SEC instead. Why take a guy you don't expect to sign? Not sure. Back in the old days, they'd always draft a couple of guys who they couldn't afford. At least, they couldn't afford unless either the player changed his mind and agreed for less than expected; or unless an expensive guy failed his physical, freeing up dollars. I imagine the other possibility is that maybe a guy won't sign now because he wants to try JuCo next spring. The latter might make sense for a kid like Blatter; is he so good that he'll actually get innings at Alabama? He might be better off to play a year in Juco, and reassess. Maybe take $125 or $200 from the Cubs and go pro? Maybe don't, but if you've been so great maybe go into the draft and go higher? Or maybe go to Alabama, but with the understanding that you'll get a lot of innings once in the SEC, rather than maybe going now as a freshman and getting only 9 innings all season? Here’s the strategy behind taking top 5 round level prepsters on Day 3 (this is from last year’s draft so the pool space might be a bit different): https://ivyfutures.com/2021/07/18/kept-the-accelerator-down-talking-draft-strategy-with-cubs-vp-dan-kantrovitz/

BA dropped a top 10 mock today: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-way-too-early-look-at-the-top-10-picks/ 1. Nationals — Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State 2. Athletics — Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS 3. Reds — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee 4. Cubs — Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C. 5. Royals — Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi 6. Tigers — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest 7. Pirates — Enrique Bradfield, OF, Vanderbilt 8. Angels — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida 9. D-backs — Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, Drexel Hill, Pa. 10. Rangers — Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina

A great point. I would like to see early confirmation in the pros for helium guys.

1. Gotta be Nazier Mule, right? He probably doesn't spend too long doing the two-way thing, but it's exciting especially when he throws triple digits as a pitcher 2. Shane Marshall (14th round) probably? He's a catcher, threw a few innings in a blowout where his fastball metrics absolutely popped and the team took him as a pitcher. I think that's fun, and I believe it's similar circumstances to how the org ended up shifting Brandon Hughes to the mound 3. Keep in mind the Cubs have a pretty deep system, but I'd say Horton slots into the back of the top 10, Ferris around 15ish, while Mule, Birdsell, Paciolla, and maybe Frisch in the 20-30 range (or at least have a good argument to) For me: 1. Without a doubt, Mulè. Probably the most exciting talent in the system since….Javy? He’s our own Masyn Winn, a guy I desperate wanted the Cubs to pick in 2020. 2. Frisch but the Day 3 prep arms (Rujano, Wheat, Blatter), especially if they can sign 2/3 of them. I liked the day 3 prep arm strategy last year too, though they failed to sign the two best last year (Ziehl and Avitia). Hopefully this year, they only let 1 get away. 3. Horton is in the back end of the top 10 (but the org’s 4th pitcher behind Wicks, Herz and Kilian). I believe there’s a set group of 12 at the top of this system’s rankings including Horton so Ferris can slot in somewhere around 13-15. Mulé in the 20s. The system is deep so it’s tough to have anyone else in my top 30 until we get an idea of how they play in the pros but I understand why you would have Birdsell and Paciolla in the top 30.

FYI - no games across the system tomorrow.

19th rounder: PL: BA:

13th rounder:

18-19 would be great considering they picked a few prep guys today.

18th rounder: Garrett Brown, LHP, Georgia (senior) He’s 6’7”

17th rounder: Andy Garriola, OF, Old Dominion He’s a senior

16th rounder is another prep arm who is probably going to get an offer for the whole remaining pool and it might not be enough:

15th rounder: Haydn McGeary, C, Colorado Mesa (set to transfer to Kentucky)

https://twitter.com/mason_mcrae/status/1549470152240111618?s=21&t=jraLDMpIYmYem2KbuKoKmQ

Hopefully they can sign him. Probably gonna take all of their remaining pool.

"If you think there’s a third weapon in there somewhere, he would be a second-rounder; if not, he’s in the big bucket of good college pitchers who project as relievers and fit in rounds 3-5." The future closer at 7. Once again, Law’s rankings were early and he never updated his ranking closer to the draft like the other major analysts (who all had Horton 12-24) but if you look at the recent 1.7 history, you’ll see a successful closer would be a pretty good outcome: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=7&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

11th rounder: LHP Branden Noriega, MLB listed him with no school but Baseball Reference says he played at Miami Dade. Maybe a draft and follow?

Hope the Palencia injury isn’t too severe.

Can’t imagine they have more than $250-$350k (the first $125k doesn’t count to the pool). You’re looking for preps who aren’t as interested in college as suspected - like Dominic Hambley, Esequiel Pagán and Porter Hodge.

He didn’t update his draft board since May 5th, a full month before regionals.