Well the past two seasons he has had 201 and 207 IP. He's sitting at 187 now. If he doesn't get it, it will be darn close. Yes, his ERA sucks this year, but the past two years were 4.13 and 3.71 His SO:BB ratio isn't drastically worse than last year. His HR #s are up a little. Maybe "solid" was the wrong word choice. It is a gamble, and isn't a certainty, but theres a decent enough chance he can get that ERA back around 4, that he can get a decent deal. Remember he just turned 28 this August, so as far as FAs go, he is young.