Yep. If we take basically the same roster as 2015 into this year, then we are exemplary of the plexiglass principle: Big jump in wins, thanks, in large part, to luck and variance. It's not like we were the Astros last year, that got an unexpected early superstar arrival in Carlos Correa (I mean, you could include Russell in this category, but he was thought of as more likely to make an impact in 2015, before the season started. And Russell didn't have quite the same impact, anyway). We also weren't the Royals, who exceeded expectations because of a unique roster construction. We won 97 games because: 1. #weargood and 2. We had incredible luck in one-run and extra-innings games. We had a lot of walk-off victories. It was just a lucky year. We didn't even really have many guys over-perform expectations too much. Some of the young guys were better than you would have imagined. But, there was a lot of luck there, and we were likely to be plexiglassed this year. That is: Until we added Jason [expletive] Heyward, John Lackey, Ben Zobrist, Adam Warren, et al. Generally, the plexiglass principle is probably going to be right more often than not. But, generally, teams aren't loaded with great, young position players all over the place, depth out the ass, no major departing players, and tons of money to spend. General rules don't apply to us. We are of a different color. This issue was an overlaying theme when Theo spoke at the Convention. He essentially said that we weren't really a true-talent level 97-win team last year, but now he thinks we are. He's spot on. It doesn't really matter that we made that big jump last year, thanks to some variance, because this year we don't need it. We might not win as many games as last year, but we are certainly better. Completely disagree. The 2014 roster was drastically different from the 2016 roster (and 2015). It is not a good reference point for anything and it has little to no bearing on anything. The biggest reason for the jump in wins wasn't luck and variance (and as tree pointed out, if you take sequencing into account, there wasn't THAT much good luck, anyway). It was a drastically different roster than 2014. You can bring this stuff up when a fairly similar roster overachieves one year after being bad or something like that, but that's not at all what the 2015 Cubs were. The fact that we then considerably added to the 2016 team just makes it dumber.