Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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2021 Other Games Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
metsing intensifies -
He's been fairly horsefeathers the last month, but he's still probably still at ~4/70 based on the numbers. I'd give it to him. I think his back issues are more concerning than a computer will properly account for, but I'd balance that out with all the team captain warm and fuzzy stuff in my mental ledger. I have to think they aren't handling aging curves for the position very well. Here's 1B qualifying seasons age 34 and older the past 5 complete years: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2015&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=34,40&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate= 3 of 16 reached 2 fWAR, one of those was Yuli Gurriel playing 1/3 of his games at 3B, and another was Joe Mauer riding a career high UZR to 2.3 fWAR. The other was Votto's final good season. There's a lot of 'this guy can hit' types in this list too, Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Santana, latter day Votto, it's just a really uphill battle at that age, and any Rizzo extension has him hit 34 in year 2.
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Is there any semi-realistic low-price/short-duration extension for Rizzo that wouldn't make you (and I) blanch? What are the numbers? I'd say it's more about the years, and going beyond 2 years would make me pretty uneasy. If we assume we're limiting the length of the guarantee I'm a little more open minded. Yes there will likely be more efficient ways to spend the money, but that's more marginal and I can appreciate there's upside and more than just production at play. Let's say more than 2/30 and I think we're in for a bad time. The part that makes me the most nervous is that a pre-FA extension could potentially be at the opposite end of the spectrum. Maybe I'm worrying too much, Rizzo's valued certainty over max dollars before and his agent should probably be able to foresee a less than frenzied market for him in the offseason. Plus if you bank some of the spending now you can probably consolidate the money better(e.g. Rizzo+Baez now and 2 FAs is a lot more practically feasible than signing 4 FAs when the whole world can bid on them), but I still worry about 30+ first baseman signing deals of significance.
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I can (after an appropriate period of mourning) accept choosing Baez over Bryant. He's likely more agreeable to an extension, he probably won't get enormous money given uneven performance and a loaded SS market this year, he's a year younger which matters a lot in any deal of sufficient length, and it's easier to get lucky and find Bryant's productivity from the corners than it is to find someone who does what Javy can. However, please please please don't extend Rizzo now. You want to not trade him and keep your options open? Great. But if you're extending him now you're likely signing yourself up for way too much decline at too heavy a price, and Rizzo's recent health and performance doesn't paint a picture of productivity you must keep at all costs. He's the anti-Javy in terms of how easy it is to find his recent level of production.
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To me the worst thing about Todd was that he was so bad with the Marlins in 03, they had to bring up a 20-year-old Miggy early and he helped them get them the WC and the rest is history. My memory is pretty fuzzy, but it seems like he was blocking some prospect from getting regular playing time while he was with the Cubs. Side note: Can you imagine any team trading a 25 year old with Miggy skills? I could be way off but I think it was Jason Dubois Also Matt Murton
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Yeah no complaints with this. I especially like this as a level set for deals involving more valuable pieces, and generally speaking, prospects with past performance/pedigree that arent hot after a pandemic year and a late start are a good place to potentially strike it big.
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From a preseason list, Fangraphs had Ball as Atlanta’s #11 prospect. He hasnt hit so far this year, .207/.354/.396
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-15-21
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Feels similar to BABIP on the hitting side. Yes you might be unlucky, but players with the ability to perform at higher levels dont tend to need to rely on batted ball fortune, at least in any substantial sample size. -
I liked the rumors he was headed to Fulham a lot better
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Game thread for All Star festivities?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Salvador Perez right now -
toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs? I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs? I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense? Some quick googling says that James Madison is Class 6, which appears to be the class with the biggest schools in the state.
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I will never ever get tired of small school players with video game numbers. 152 Ks in 78.2 IP(44.5% K%) as a starting pitcher, hilarious.
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Maybe meaningless in the long run, but I'm interested that Franklin's K rate was basically the same both in and out of conference play. Maybe speaks to him knocking off some rust/timing early in the season before the uptick in competition, so while it certainly doesn't wipe away the contact concern it maybe explains the specific K rate he ended the season with.
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I mentioned this in the context of the trade deadline, but is there any concern about developmental time with some of the positions now that they've killed short season ball? Just going down the recent Fangraphs list, they already have Preciado, Howard, Hernandez, Made, Santana, and Pertuz fighting for SS/3B time at Myrtle Beach and/or the Complex League, and I would guess as given the scouting report that they won't play it extra conservative with Triantos' timeline so he'd be fighting that group further. Ultimately it will sort itself out and you can use DH and 2B, but at a certain point you need defensive developmental time too.
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Plenty of opportunity to improve, but I'm not too worked up about the performance as a whole, it was a better showing than it felt. Especially contrasted with Mexico's scoreless draw to open the tournament with their A team. [tweet] [/tweet] Biggest problems to my eyes were Yueill continuing his really poor USMNT form and Lewis (again, imo) being a non-factor, which was exacerbated by Arriola's injury. Was pleasantly surprised with Zimmerman's line breaking passes and Shaq Moore's Reggie Cannon impersonation. Busio and Dike were a nice shot in the arm too. We'll probably see a lot of rotation w/ Game 2 being the weakest opponent, if they don't win that one handily I'll be more concerned. With wingers scarce to begin with, Arriola's injury, and the comparative CM options looking good, I hope they give Roldan a look at right wing.
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Love this pick. What’s his name? What position does he play?
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yea, basically you want to make the keeper save it - the italian keeper is 6'5" so the window to get in above him is not that big and the risk of going over (or off) the bar is too high. Basically, each of those balls that was saved probably goes in if it's on the ground. Does it matter how tall he is when he immediately dives to the ground whichever side he goes to? The way you dive as a goalkeeper you arent committed to going to the ground when the ball is struck, so while you wont get to anything 6-7 feet off the ground, you can still get to stuff at chest level and thats a much easier save to make(think catching a line drive v. a ground ball in baseball). When you add in that going for height as the shooter is higher variance(the way you strike the ball puts misses at greater risk), you end up being safer aiming low and hard.
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Audibly cackled at multiple Argentina players failing to rugby tackle Neymar in stoppage time once he decided drawing the foul was not going to help.
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Making a team forfeit because some dumb fan shined a light in the GKers eye seems just a bit excessive. Didn’t a team have to forfeit game(s) because their fans would t stop doing homophobic chants? (Not in this tournament, obviously) No, abandoning the game to be finished the next day was on the table as a last resort in that situation, but no game has come particularly close to that point.
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Stop what you're doing right now and read this oral history of Ichiro stories, it's worth paying for the Athletic on its own: https://theathletic.com/2678297/2021/07/06/untold-stories-of-ichiro-wrestling-with-griffey-all-star-speeches-and-ichi-wings A couple highlights: -
Cubs win the trade.
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The complete shamelessness in time wasting is an embarrassment, especially from a team of italy’s talent. Ruins any appreciation of an otherwise deserved result.
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Knowing the limitations of the pool that roster makes sense to me. Feels a little unlucky for someone like Cole Bassett, but I don't see a midfielder I'd for sure drop for him. On a related note, because I am a masochist I occasionally read the replies on USMNT news, and boy that will take away your desire to see soccer's popularity to grow in the US really quick.
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I'm telling myself this will just make it hurt more when England lose to Sweden in penalties
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dodgers confirmed biggest cheats maybe ever
Transmogrified Tiger replied to SpongeWorthy's topic in General Baseball Talk
I am Jack's complete lack of surprise
