Transmogrified Tiger

I was out during some of Stromania last night and lockout depression hasn't hit quite yet, so I'm wondering what we can read into Stroman's signing about the rest of the offseason. - It gives lots of flexibility to future moves on a lot of different axes. Stroman didn't require a long term deal, so if they're worried about stacking too many long term commitments at once they still have that club in their bag. He didn't require a QO so if they want to pay a player cost they have less concerns about losing the gains they've made on the farm. He makes for a third durable starter(Stroman, Miley, and Hendricks are all in the Top 30 of IP since 2019 and Stroman opted out of 2020) which means they can take some bigger risks with subsequent pitching additions if they want. - It also didn't answer a few questions that will inform those moves. The flexibility afforded by a 3 year deal and no QO is great, but it also means it's unproven that they'll be willing to hand out a longer term deal to a Correa/Story, or sign a QO'd player like those two, Castellanos or Conforto. It bumps the payroll up to a less pathetic 114 million, but if last year is a reasonable target of where they'll land it remains to be seen if upcoming spending will be deep or wide since either are reasonable options but both might be pushing it. Based on the rumors that the Cubs were still in conversation with FA pitchers, and what we know about Jed's treatment of the rotation in his tenure(namely: he seems to value innings/durability more than the average GM), it seems likely they'll be spending at least a little more capital in the rotation. Whether that looks like an aggressive pursuit of Rodon or picking off a velocity flyer like Urena or Richards would depend on their view of the position players on the roster, which is a pile of hopes and dreams more than a robust offense right now.

Got to playing around with baseballtradevalues.com last night, here's a couple trades that almost certainly won't happen, but add up on that site and have at least some mutual logic so they could be starting points for more realistic deals. Keegan Thompson for Chris Paddack and Ha-Seong Kim Brailyn Marquez and Kevin Alcantara for Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed

I’m curious what they have planned for the position player group, because it seems clear that even aside from the talent/expectations that there’s more work and re-work coming. Both catchers are right handed, every infielder is right handed(unless you count Rivas and I do not), and they just intentionally gave 3 different RH OF major league contracts in the last week(and Frazier is technically the only one with options). If they add a SS the odds are very high that it’ll be right handed too(Gregorius is basically the only reasonable option unless there’s an unexpected trade). The most immediate impact prospect is a RH OF. That makes the only LH hitters Happ, Ortega(not guaranteed production or playing time), and Heyward(offensive dead weight). The obvious way to help with that is a LH corner IF, but even that feels light unless you’re really high on Ortega(or I guess Deichmann). Even with some of those RH hitters not having dramatic splits it feels like an imbalance you need to address before opening day, but the haziness of how much they value Wisdom, Ortega, and Schwindel makes it tough to say what direction they’d go to do so.

Yes, unless some already completed deals don’t get reported until shortly after, like the trade deadline.

This is it in a nutshell

BRING THE GUY

I was just looking at this out of curiosity. Miley's velocity is 2 mph above Davies, and Stroman would be 2 mph above Arrieta and a shade more than Williams/Sampson/Stewart, so you do get gains even if you aren't signing a bunch of flamethrowers. Plus you hope Alzolay (best velo on the roster) throws more innings, and with the stability offered by Hendricks/Stroman/Miley they might consider trading Mills for offensive help(especially if they sign/trade for some other arm) and get more gains that way. What Stroman would represent is a real need to get a strong defensive SS, though, you're not maximizing that rotation if you have a Hoerner/Madrigal defensive middle infield most days.

Probably depends on how long this has been coming. The main obstacle would be the physical right? Normally that doesn't happen in parallel but normally there isn't a literal deadline you're trying to finalize before. Seems like if you know you're close within the last 24 hours you could clear that logistical hurdle to avoid the messiness of waiting months to finalize, but maybe they didn't know or I'm understating the complexity of that step.

I've thought the offseason was done for 3 days in a row, please stop toying with me

Freddy Galvis is apparently going to Japan, which is pretty annoying because that now makes the FA SS list essentially Correa/Story and non-starter material(Iglesias, Andrelton, etc). Even if you aren't in love with Galvis as a 150 game player he fit the roster well as a LH bat with solid SS defense. I guess you can at least bank on Gregorius being a player-cheap option with some bounce back potential that's available, especially if the Phillies get one of Correa/Story.

I don't think so, because I do think the DH is a certainty in some form. Gomes can start 60-80 games and get more PT than the average backup, Willson can start 80 and DH another ~50 times to give him 500 PA, and you still have lots of DH at bats that need to be taken by someone. Plus Frazier is a 1 year/1.5 million dollar upside pickup, his utility doesn't live or die with him getting a full time workload. Also, best laid plans always go awry, someone will get hurt or be surprisingly good/bad, this level of redundancy is far from overkill with as much as is still to be sorted out on the position player side. Also, maybe they'll trade Willson! That possibility existed before Gomes and still exists now. I just don't think it clearly points the arrow in that direction(or the opposite).

This is the closest we have to an answer to that question, from Mooney: I don't want to parse the wording too much, but I think the middle of the road interpretation is short of 'we're gonna trade Willson and start you 120 times'. As for why Gomes would take that deal, teams offering more playing time than that are likelier to be non-competitive and probably offering less, and a 2nd year might've been too much for competitive/rich teams looking for backups. Or maybe Gomes looked around and said 'I'm 34 and only have so much earning potential, I'm gonna get paid before the lockout' and the Cubs were fastest on the draw. Or maybe the Cubs actually said we're gonna start you 120 times after we trade Willson, there's lots of reasonable possibilities. Bottom line, the skepticism here seems to be suspicious that the Cubs did too well in filling a current hole, so that must mean they're going to trade away talent to justify it instead of just wanting a better roster. It's a reflection of the assumptions and predispositions people had before the signing, and that's why I don't think it means much in one direction or another.

I think they've been too vocal about being aggressive with spending and are generally too smart to not know this is one of the advantages at their disposal to not make some type of FA splash. In theory it could be 5 guys on Miley contracts instead of 1 Correa, but I'll be shocked if the current payroll isn't upped pretty dramatically by opening day. That said, despite the Mets and Rangers behavior I don't think it's realistic to expect multiple guys at the top of their particular markets. I'm far more doubtful the FO has the appetite for that type of splash and it's difficult to outbid the league when those players get more scarce.

This is the heart of it, why does that make it more likely? Because he's not horrible? Because he's making 2 million more than we may have mentally earmarked for a backup? If they're committing to trading Contreras and fully committing to teardown then why would they care about the marginal improvement and expense of Gomes over a different FA or some waiver pickup who would have a longer term future? For the same reason they signed Wade Miley? Because they know they can't walk into opening day next year with an $80m payroll, so signing dudes like these that can soak up innings and PAs either until the trade deadline or through the meaningless games of August/September while keeping their books clear long term seems like the easiest way to do that? You're right, Jed hasn't come out and said they're shopping Willson. But when you see, at a minimum, 3 opening spots in the rotation, two second basemen but no shortstop, two career minor leaguers riding a combined 5 months of success at the corners, etc etc etc, and this is the second move they make, it seems pretty rational to be a little....disappointed? expecting the worst? Is the same not true if they had given Roberto Perez 1/5 or Wilson Ramos 2/7? I'm not trying to be dense, I get why it can feel underwhelming that there aren't other moves of significance to go with Gomes yet, and I'm annoyed they haven't been more decisive with SP and/or SS. But I don't think signing a particular catcher to a team that really needs some type of catcher is any type of additional signal in any direction.

I do think it's important to not oversell the upside of not wearing him out, there's no 6 win season waiting if only his playing time was optimized. At the same time, there's been a fairly clear correlation with his catching workload and his offensive production, and the presence of a solid backup and a few dozen games at DH could help you get the rate stats of rested Willson with the PA of worn out Willson. This past year in particular I think proves the point. When Chirinos arrived Willson was on pace for even more innings than he had in 2018(just under 1200 if my napkin math is right). Afterwards he had a proper amount of rest and he had a significant improvement with the bat.

This is the heart of it, why does that make it more likely? Because he's not horrible? Because he's making 2 million more than we may have mentally earmarked for a backup? If they're committing to trading Contreras and fully committing to teardown then why would they care about the marginal improvement and expense of Gomes over a different FA or some waiver pickup who would have a longer term future?

You'll forgive us for being a little skeptical and disappointed that this is the biggest offensive free agent pickup since Jason Heyward, especially considering it either pushes Contreras to the (still theoretical!) DH spot, which makes yesterday's other signing more of a mystery, or it makes it more likely that they are going to trade our best offensive player. But go ahead, get pumped over a mid 30s catcher signing a multiple year deal I guess. I don't understand the binary here. Do you think Gomes is going to catch 120 games whether Contreras is on the roster or not? If they had paid Gomes 2/7 and the same news came out about playing time would that give you the same reaction? It's strange to me that the Cubs paying a slight premium(if that, Roberto Perez is clearly worse and got 5 mil) to get the only worthwhile FA C before the lockout when they have a need regardless of Contreras's future or role is something that can only portend negative things.

Not much point when you only have him for half a season. Poor Trevor Megill got picked up on waivers and then non tendered within a few hours. The twins also nontendered Juan Minaya, who might be worth a look for the pen.

The tweets I've seen were specific in saying 'major league deal', so it'd be a shock if it wasn't guaranteed on those grounds and if no one else was willing to give him a guarantee.

hmm EDIT: They may also be readying to jump very quickly on some non-tenders

I'm all for sketchy rumors, gimme purple shirt dude at Starbucks or whatshisname from PSD making stuff up, don't care. Contreras to Cleveland really makes me wonder the context for the Guardians pursuing him. Are they confident there's going to be a salary floor and they'd rather meet it by trying to compete without a long term commitment? Are they ramping up spending temporarily since their TV deal is about to expire and they need to put best foot forward to get a good deal? Is it the Cubs targeting a SP and Contreras is one of multiple valuable pieces going that way?

Looks like Ramirez did come at the expense of Hermosillo

Impossible to know the emotional reaction, but there's a very truthful point you can make to Willson that the number of games he's catching has hurt his production, and with the DH they can get better production from the same amount of PAs while also having a capable backup where there is currently none anywhere in the org.

Looks good to me. Give yourself the option to trade Willson without requiring a catcher in return if that's the intended path, a strong backup if you keep Willson to maximize his production/let him DH, and the dollar amount over a lesser backup will not be consequential to other decisions on a 2 year time horizon.

I don't think that really lines up either. Like if Jed was going to punt the next two years, he doesn't take Nick Madrigal back as the big catch of the deadline. I also don't think you declare Hoerner not an every day shortstop so early, and honestly you probably only add one more SP and call it a day (with the idea that you're going to rely on Adbert/Mills/Thompson/Steele to fill 2+ spots). The Cubs are going to spend money, and the team's going to project at .500ish or better. I'm just worried now that our offseason is going to be something like: Freddy Galvis Yusei Kikuchi Garret Richards Kyle Seager Andrew McCutchen Robinson Chirinos A reliever or two These are all quality depth pieces. At positions of need too. But unless you hit the absolute jackpot on one or more of them, they don't move the ball forward for 2023+ at all. So what ends up happening is one year from now Jed's looking at basically the same team (Willson is gone but Davis has arrived), and there's still a ton of work to do. Honestly just replacing Galvis above with Story would calm change my attitude immensely. There's also the trade market too, which is a huge unknown in every direction. That list also starts to look better if you replace Richards with Montas, or McCutchen with Ketel Marte or Suzuki(not a trade but still)