Transmogrified Tiger
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I haven't deeply investigated this(and some of it is unknowable), but there's a theory that if you make offsides more lenient, you actually suppress scoring because defenders respond by playing lower lines and take fewer chances. That might not be the worst thing in the world given the current trend towards 90 minutes of pressing, but it's one of those counterintuitive things where you do have to be mindful of how incentives change behavior.
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I'm a technology guy and I want them to keep incorporating ideas like this, but they have to stop with the idea that we can objectively know if a player's armpit is an inch and a half offside, at a minimum the cameras are not good enough for that. Build in a margin for error where it's inconclusive and the original call stands.
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Acosta and De La Torre's performance definitely help my nerves about final window rotation a little bit. Part of the problem in Couva was the lack of rotation, and the midfield is the only place where I had worries about the two-deep. Home against Honduras is not the same as in San Jose, and we've seen Acosta shrink against better opponents, but if you can get Adams and Reyna healthy and avoid any other injuries, they should have plenty of depth to get the performances they need.
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Probably won't end up being anything but worth keeping an eye on, Costa Rica apparently played multiple guys last night who were known Covid positives There's a little nuance because as the article describes these were players who previously tested positive, went through quarantine and apparently had recent negatives. But depending on how the protocols are written and how the powers that be see it, they could be in some trouble. A forfeit means the US functionally guarantees at least the playoff with a single draw, and any win or CR dropped points would mathematically guarantee it.
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all that and it takes a soft pk to get Mexico ahead. Maybe the best result on the whole, Mexico still thoroughly unconvincing and vulnerable at home, lose a couple players for our matchup, and the US enters the last window 4 points clear of the playoff
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Hector Herrera got a silly yellow(he just trucked a defender in a hopeless pursuit 1 min into the half) so he'll miss the USA match. Chucky Lozano just got carted off with what looks like a separated shoulder. Still 0-0.
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Canada got their 'Gyasi scored by taking a clearance to the face' goal
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Honestly if those two things happen the US is likely facing Mexico with a new coach and there's as much opportunity to send them to a real dark place as there is potential for our own disaster.
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The US's counter press has been incredible this entire window, just relentless
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Jamaica can you be useful for a single game, 1 point from 6 games against Mexico/CR/Panama if this holds
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Not a perfect cross-section of games but still interesting
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El Salvador's players announced a statement saying they were not playing against Canada tonight to protest poor treatment and unpaid bonuses from the federation, then changed their minds in a new statement minutes later.
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They also had to rotate a lot in 3 game windows, and Berhalter explicitly mentioned cutting out the travel time would help them need to rotate less. Looking at the midfield since that's a place where rotation is needed quickly and there's less depth: @ El Salvador: Adams/McKennie/Aaronson v. Canada: Adams/Lletget/Acosta @ Honduras: Adams/Sands/Acosta v. Jamaica: Adams/McKennie/Musah @ Panama: Musah/Lletget/Acosta v. Costa Rica: Adams/McKennie/Musah Compare to this window which saw MMA start both games, and while Adams is out with injury I'd fully expect McKennie/Musah to start tonight. In fact there was basically no rest-based rotation for Canada at all, which given the way we approached matchday 4-6 should imply there's going to be very little tonight. Is that worth playing in St. Paul? I'd say no when you could play in like Nashville and have none of this hassle without a ton of extra flight time. But there is a benefit they're getting from it.
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Bad conditions are always going to be more of an equalizer, but the optimist's case is that the US just played 2 games in the cold while Honduras played 2 home games and isn't as used to cold to begin with. Plus the field looks like it will be in much better shape than the turf in Canada, which if you combine with the lack of snow or high winds hopefully mean playing real soccer should be less of a concern. Setting the conditions aside, Honduras just got eliminated, their coach gave a particularly despondent press conference that left some thinking he might quit before the game, and this is the team the US put up 4 on in the road match.
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
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Entering today only Canada had more and it was 15. There's plenty of things to improve but playing bunkered teams on horrible fields with refs that require broken bones to give cards is gonna be a fairly low scoring environment as a baseline. naw, these are weak excuses. The US attack is poor. I mean it's a pretty factual reality, only 19 of 37 games in the Octagonal featured a team scoring more than 1 goal, with Canada having 5, The US 4, and Mexico 4. The third games in windows have had a 2 goal team in 6 of 8 games while first and second matches are 13 of 29. There is a lot that the US can look inwards about, whether it's about individuals(availability w/ Reyna/Weah/Pulisic, form with the strikers and Pulisic) or structure(tactical choices slowing things down, not choosing Brooks, Adams' lack of passing range at the 6), but we should also be mindful of the environment that suppresses scoring.
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13 goals in 10 qualifying matches is awful. Not like it’s some issue just in this window. We can’t score with any consistency. Entering today only Canada had more and it was 15. There's plenty of things to improve but playing bunkered teams on horrible fields with refs that require broken bones to give cards is gonna be a fairly low scoring environment as a baseline.
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Weren't clinical enough to deserve to win, but Canada getting 3 points for that performance pisses me off
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We completely suffocated them and forced them to goon it up(Vittoria could've gotten 3 yellows just himself) to avoid being overrun, and we're down thanks to 4 consecutive bad/unlucky things happening in 10 seconds. Frustrating.
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There's reasons on the merits for all of these, but Miles/Richards at CB, Dest staying in at RB, and Aaronson over Morris tells me that Berhalter wants to be on the front foot, pen them in and trust the CBs(and Antonee) against David/Larin/Buchanan on the break. Given the talent advantage in the midfield and the conditions I get it, but it also means I'm probably gonna have to hold my breath at a Canada counter several times per half.
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Annoying, but I mentally wasn't considering that they'd push Weah too hard in this one given his fitness and starting on Thursday. Aaronson's defensive workrate or Morris's danger in transition will work fine.
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Their jersey numbers add up to 18, which is the same as the total number of letters in their last names.
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Yes. Mexico pulling themselves out of the fire last night(down 1-0 to 10 man Jamaica in the 80th minute) means that while Panama and CR could still technically ruin things for them, it's more likely they can help the US through winning than on a minimal chance of schadenfreude in falling to 4th or 5th. This next matchday will be illuminating, because Mexico gets CR and Panama has their only home game of the window. The US will be favorites to gain points on both in the 3rd matchday so if they get points and/or Panama slips to Jamaica, things can open up(or conversely, tighten) quickly.
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This is the path to auto-qualification: USA win @ Canada Mexico win or draw v. CR Jamaica win @ Panama USA win v. Honduras Jamaica win or draw v. CR Mexico win v. Panama Functional qualification(+9 points and lots of GD) means Panama can draw one instead of losing twice, and CR can win one/lose one instead of lose/draw + lose/draw. In other words, if functional or auto qualification is possible after this next matchday, we've gotten over the biggest hurdles to doing so.
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A little surprised but not upset at Richards over Miles. Happy that Weah starts here since I think that sets up well for Aaronson to relieve him tonight and go 90 against Canada. Apprehensive about Ferreira over the striker alternatives.
