Transmogrified Tiger
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Not entirely true. Pierre clearly distracts pitchers when he is on base. The less focussed a pitcher is on the hitter, the better the hitter's chances of getting a pitch he can hit, including homeruns. Those stolen bases may have affected the pitcher, the pitches that are thrown (don't want to throw a slider in the dirt with Pierre on third), etc... Can you prove this? Look at each time Pierre has been on base and see what the results are. It shouldn't be that hard since he's only been on base 8 times this year.
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One thing I can think of is making a defender rush a throw inducing an error. I know Pierre has gotten on by error at least once this season, and I seem to recall the error appeared to be a rushed throw. I don't know if there is a way to quantify this effect, but if you counted that as hit it would raise his average 33 points - even if you only didn't count the AB it would raise his average 8 points. I'm normally heavily in the stats camp, but I do believe that a fast runner can induce errors. And if DLee or ARam knocks him in, while it may not be an earned run it will still help you win the game. So obviously if all other things are equal, you go with the speedy guy. But if things aren't totally equal, would it be reasonable to add 5 or 10 points to someone like Pierre's OBP to reflect that he's likely to get on 3-6 times through an induced error? Pierre reached on an error yesterday, while the throw was rushed somewhat, it was an easy play for Hatteberg and he just dropped the ball. However, I see what you're saying about forcing errors. The problem with crediting his OBP is that it isn't really relative. How many more errors does Pierre force than someone with Todd Walker's speed? How many would be errors no matter how fast the player is? It's a dangerous road to imply anything the hitter did forced the error(aside from the ball in play itself).
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OBP. Remember, a lot of the advantage speed gives Player 2 is already reflected in OBP and the other metrics. There's still some value outside of that, but not nearly enough to make up a 50 point OBP differential. So if both have 700 PAs, player A is on base 266 times, player B 231, and both have the same SLG%. You like 266 times with Mo Vaughn vs. 231 with Ricky Henderson? It's a very unlikely hypothetical, but yes, I'll take more times on base.
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OBP. Remember, a lot of the advantage speed gives Player 2 is already reflected in OBP and the other metrics. There's still some value outside of that, but not nearly enough to make up a 50 point OBP differential.
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Doesn't that depend on where in the order you want the player to bat? They both bat third. Let's say both players have 5 season in the majors. Player A has Mo Vaughn speed and is a station to station base runner. Player B has Juan Pierre speed. Player A's average and OBP dip considerably with runners on because he presses every AB with a man on trying to get the big hit and he strikes out a lot. Player B has his best numbers across the board with runners on. They play in similar parks with similar lineups. Player A
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Doesn't that depend on where in the order you want the player to bat? No.
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Player A, no question. Again, I'm not trying to forecast Pierre's season based on this, or claim that trading him was a bad idea because of this start, but the implication that he's done well in those 31 PA's is wrong.
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He's 4 of 24 with a walk since opening day. Then which of these are classified as bad games: 1 for 4 2 runs 2 SB 1 for 4 1 run 1 for 4 1 RBI 1 for 3 1 BB Getting on base 1 out of 4 times is awful. That projects to 162 runs, 54 RBI and 108 SB. That seems alright to me. First of all, I have no idea how you're projecting those numbers. Secondly, Runs and RBI are pretty much worthless to project, because they are dependent on those around you. The true value of a player lies in what he actually does, not what his teammates do, and thus far Pierre has been downright bad. I'm not saying he'll continue this pace, but to claim that his season to date has been successful is simply incorrect.
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No, I'm saying he has had 5 good games (Cubs 4-1), 2 bad games (Cubs 1-1) You are the one saying 5 good+2 bad=terrible start 5 good games? He's gotten on base more than once in 2 games. By that definition every Cub starter aside from Neifi had a "good" game today. I can't believe I have to make the argument that someone who's hitting .259/.286/.370(or .166/.200/.208 aside from opening day) is not doing well.
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Are you seriously trying to rationalize a stretch where a guy gets on base 1 in 5 times to the plate as him doing well?
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Dear Eric Milton, commence with the pants crappin'. If Neifi gets the start, it will be Dusty's worst move of the year by far. in fact, if Neifi gets the start, Dusty should be shot. he and Blanco are the only guys on the team that don't pound Milton. Would you put Hairston at 3rd? -
He's 4 of 24 with a walk since opening day.
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Thus far? He's been terrible. A lot of things "seem" to be the case and aren't based in fact. It seems to me that Pierre is hitting a ton of weak ground outs at Wrigley and will continue to struggle mightily there. Does that seem to be the case? Yes. Will that happen? Probably not. This is the point I'm making. It's far too early to make any judgment based on this year's performance, but if you are going to take this small sample, I don't know how you could conclude it's been positive. This is where people that only use stats as an argument lose credibility. You can't watch a Cubs game this year without noticing the impact that Pierre has made on the team. I'm not saying that stats aren't important, but try watching a game or two. The things Pierre has done so far has not shown up in the box score and regardless of how you classify his play, he has not been anywhere near horrible. I'm sure that he would like to get on base more, but when he has been on base he has been outstanding and runs are just as much a product of his efforts as anyone else's on the team. What does he do that doesn't show up in the box score? Wreak havoc on the bases? He needs to get on base to be able to do that, and he's been terrible at it thus far. If you think that Pierre is going to be the definition of a leadoff hitter and spark the offense and distract pitchers or whatever, that's fine. But he needs to get on base to do any of that stuff, and he simply hasn't done that so far. Not to say that he won't do it going forward, but claiming that he's been great so far is wrong.
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Thus far? He's been terrible. A lot of things "seem" to be the case and aren't based in fact. It seems to me that Pierre is hitting a ton of weak ground outs at Wrigley and will continue to struggle mightily there. Does that seem to be the case? Yes. Will that happen? Probably not. This is the point I'm making. It's far too early to make any judgment based on this year's performance, but if you are going to take this small sample, I don't know how you could conclude it's been positive.
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Mizzou lost to SE Missouri St. tonight, 9-5. SEMO's pitcher, Asif Shah, threw a complete game, and threw ONE HUNDRED NINETY THREE PITCHES. 1-9-3. Congratulations Asif, here's Dr. Andrews' phone number.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-12-2006
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Aardsma in for the 9th, Iowa down 2-0, Fontenot has the only 2 hits(he, Pie, Soto, and McGehee have walks) for the I-Cubs. Top of the order due up in the 9th though. -
two bagger
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How can you say that? It's only been 7 games, and Pierre hasn't been very good in them, terrible actually. OBP and OPS don't always tell the whole story. Pierre has 6 runs and 2 RBI in 7 games. That projects to 139 runs and 46 RBI. That's 31 runs above his career high and 22 more than his best season's combination of runs and RBI. He's doing a great job of helping us score runs right now. That's the name of the game. Runs and RBI are dependent on the people around you. If he weren't hitting so terribly, or if we had someone else there that wasn't hitting terribly, we'd have more runs and RBI from that spot. Yeah, of course he won't keep this pace up, and it is dependent on other players as well, but the speed factor comes in when you are saying someone hitting a little better would have done better. I'm not sure I agree, but that's beside the original point, that it's way to early to use this season's performance to evaluate the deal.
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How can you say that? It's only been 7 games, and Pierre hasn't been very good in them, terrible actually. OBP and OPS don't always tell the whole story. Pierre has 6 runs and 2 RBI in 7 games. That projects to 139 runs and 46 RBI. That's 31 runs above his career high and 22 more than his best season's combination of runs and RBI. He's doing a great job of helping us score runs right now. That's the name of the game. Runs and RBI are dependent on the people around you. If he weren't hitting so terribly, or if we had someone else there that wasn't hitting terribly, we'd have more runs and RBI from that spot.
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IIRC, the draw is during the conference finals(maybe the semis), and the draft is in late June.
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Opening Day Thoughts and Images...
Transmogrified Tiger replied to ManEatingTarp's topic in General Baseball Talk
http://imageshack.us/ -
How can you say that? It's only been 7 games, and Pierre hasn't been very good in them, terrible actually.
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We are awesome.
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Barrett was at 1st, got picked off with 2 outs, and Lee tried to take home while Barrett was in the rundown. He was out easily.
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haha, someone forgot to tell Pagan that it gets deeper in the corners
