The Packers love playing a 3rd LB. Their LB3 has played 44% of the snaps. The Bears will obviously play a lot of 12 personnel. They play a lot as is and with WRs out, they'll lean even more into that. And honestly, I think our 12 vs their 3 LBs is a win for the Bears.
Their DL is not only thin, numbers wise, they are thin weight wise. The guys that are getting the snaps are undersized. So if the Bears can single block the interior, they can get guys on the LB level and have success running the ball. GB's best run stuffing safety will also miss this game, so the potential for big runs, even when the Packers match the Bears big personnel will be much greater than it was 2 weeks ago.
I also wonder if the misdirection and counter stuff will work more against GB this time. They didn't do a whole lot of it 2 weeks ago, either because of Parsons' quickness off the edge or because they had just shown that against the Eagles and Ben knew the Packers would be prepared for that. Their LBs are fast, aggressive and like to come downhill, so getting them going fast in the wrong way could lead to some gashes. The Bears had ZERO explosive runs last time (10 yards+).
In the pass game, the Packers faced a similar depleted offense on Thanksgiving when the Lions lost Amon-Ra early in that one. Jamo Williams dominated in that one with 144 of their 256 passing yards. Their group of backup TEs (with Laporta hurt) caught 6 passes. Caleb isn't really the type to rely on 1 target, but unless they completely bracket DJ, I would hope he spams the ball to him especially out of playaction.
There will probably be very little pass rush on either side. Packers are a bottom 5 pass rush team without Parsons. Bears obviously don't rush very well with everyone healthy, and last game showed they can't afford to blitz Love. So the Bears are going to have to make some plays in coverage or pretend they are playing Cleveland again up front.