Posting this from the other thread with some tweaks due to events since that time (mainly Russell) Exercise options on: - Quintana - Strop Trade: - Duensing, Kintzler for whatever savings can be had (assume we can save $2M while paying the rest) for lottery tickets - LaStella for relief prospect? - Russell+ for the best pre-arb reliever that can be had. For the sake of argument, since Philly has really struggled getting Crawford to produce, I'll go with Russell+ for Seranthony Dominguez. This also saves $4-5M Sign: - Bryce Harper - Craig Kimbrel - Justin Wilson Lineup: Contreras / Rizzo / Zobrist / Baez / Bryant / Schwarber / Heyward / Harper Bench: Happ / Almora / Caratini / Bote Rotation: Darvish / Lester / Hendricks / Quintana / Smyly Swing: Monty / Chatwood / Mills Bullpen: Kimbrel / Morrow / Strop / Dominguez / Edwards / Cishek / Wilson Shuttle: Maples / Mekkes / Webster / Rosario / Norwood / Alzolay / etc Okay, so let's talk about the SP first - while I really appreciate what we've gotten from Hamels, I am not sure about committing $20M to him next year. And even though it shouldn't really matter, I feel like we have too many similar pitchers in Lester, Hamels & Quintana. We'll have a three way competition in spring training between Smyly, Monty and Chatwood for the final rotation spot. I'll go with Smyly actually being healthy out of ST and winning the job to start the year. The other two give us solid backup plans along with the parade of depth guys we're building in AA & AAA. Harper is a no brainer, of course. When you have a chance to add a generational talent, you do it. Trading Russell is pretty much a must at this point. From a baseball perspective, I strongly believe that he is who has shown himself to be - a 2.5-4 win player on an annual basis. For that kind of value, I think there are teams out there that will be willing to take on the headache (depending on the ultimate findings from MLB, of course). We might have to add from our bevy of mid-level prospects, but that's okay. For the return, I want a quality reliever that has proven himself in MLB, but is still well pre-arb. Just for the idea of a return, I threw Seranthony Dominguez out there. JP Crawford has really struggled in the bigs so far and is nowhere near as good defensively as Russell. Philly has money to spend and they believe that their window starts now, so Russell's increasing costs shouldn't bother them that much and they'll still get three years of control. Meanwhile Dominguez has broken into the majors with solid performance in 2018 and still has six years of control remaining. The biggest (baseball) problem with this deal is the timing. I think Philly will be pushing hard for Machado and wouldn't make this trade until that's resolved. On our end, we'll have to wait for MLB to conclude its investigation and determine Russell's fate before we could make a move. It may end up that the Cubs just need to non-tender Russell. In which case, sub Happ in here for Addison - Philly's OF production sucked last year, too. On a side note, we may need to also sign a backup SS. If only Short had made a bit more contact and hit for a bit more average this year I'd be more willing to roll with him at Iowa and an occasional call-up to give Javy a blow. Signing a backup SS would pretty much "seal" LaStella's fate, meaning he would have to be traded for whatever flyer we could get in return. When we market him, we should mention Scooter Gennett. Often. To complete the team, we overload the pen. Kimbrel will be expensive as hell, but he's been incredibly durable, hasn't shown many signs of decline and is a force at the end of games. Let's stop messing around with it and just sign him to be the man. Wilson has shown himself to be reliable in the second half of this year and provides some left handed heat from the pen. The list above looks light on lefties, but is bolstered by Monty / Smyly. Not to mention that there's a bunch of guys on that list that are tough on both lefties and righties. I'll just count on Morrow spending a lot of time on the DL during the year and we rotate other guys through there to keep guys rested as we go. I trust the front office to fit 15+ pitchers onto the 25 man roster somehow. I thought about Miller instead of Kimbrel, but he's older, was injured this year and has been tailing off each of the past couple years. I know others prefer to invest elsewhere given the depth of the market. I get that. I could be convinced to go that direction, too. I just don't see any other names on that list that inspire the same kind of warm and fuzzy thoughts of "now THIS is something even Joe can't screw up". I also looked at lefties other than Wilson and didn't see anyone there that inspired me, but I'm happy to go a different direction there. RE: the Shuttle - I'm pretty sure that Mills performance down the stretch has him making the team in 2019. I believe he's out of options anyway, so if they want him in the org, they'll have to find room for him. Let us all say our prayers all offseason long that Maples & Mekkes develop a miraculous increase in control/command this winter (add in Edwards, too, I guess). In summary, the OF defense is questionable (at best) and there's some collapse potential in the rotation, even with the multiple backup options. But the super pen should allow the team to shorten the game and keep the starters from seeing the heart of the order too many times in the same game. With the multiple options available in Tenn & Iowa next year, we should be able to use a few phantom DL stints to get guys some rest, too.