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Tim

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Everything posted by Tim

  1. okay...different path. Assuming we miss on Harper/Machado: pick up options on: Strop Q Hamels Trade: Duensing + Kintzler + Chatwood for whatever savings can be had (Assume $5M) LaStella for a relief prospect Russell+ for cost controlled reliever - let's stick with Dominguez for now (this saves ~$5M) Amaya + Lange + Swarmer (or pretty much whatever package works for them) for Jose Leclerc (Tex) Sign: Brantley Escobar Chavez Lineup: (Zobrist will give lots of guys rest; Heyward & Almora are strict platoon; Caratini plays much more) Brantley / Bryant / Rizzo / Baez / Schwarber / Escobar / Heyward / Contreras Bench: Happ / Caratini / Almora / Zobrist Rotation: Lester / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Darvish Swing: Monty / Smyly / Mills Bullpen: Leclerc / Morrow / Strop / Dominguez / Cishek / Chavez / Edwards (+ swing guys when not in rotation --- I'm just going to assume injuries + DL shenanigans)
  2. You're right, that does sound crazy.
  3. Any thoughts on signing Matt Moore to a cheap contract if he'll agree to be a reliever? I'm trying to find a free agent pitcher to convert that might agree to sign cheaply. Someone that has struggled for a couple years as a starter that might be able to reach another gear in short outings. Basically Bud Norris from a couple years ago, minus the jerkiness. Moore has had a lot of success with Hickey before (also before his arm issues). I don't know if he's straight toast or if he could be something in the pen, though. Actually... Looks like Texas tried him in the pen this year and it didn't help much. But that's in Texas in the summer, so it could be worth a flier. I'd probably only do it if he signed a minor league deal, though. He'll probably get a mlb contract from someone.
  4. We have one. He had the biggest go-ahead hit in Cubs history. I'm thinking more a guy who will be able to play three straight games next season and someone with Dexter-like speed, at least. So....Harper?
  5. Posting this from the other thread with some tweaks due to events since that time (mainly Russell) Exercise options on: - Quintana - Strop Trade: - Duensing, Kintzler for whatever savings can be had (assume we can save $2M while paying the rest) for lottery tickets - LaStella for relief prospect? - Russell+ for the best pre-arb reliever that can be had. For the sake of argument, since Philly has really struggled getting Crawford to produce, I'll go with Russell+ for Seranthony Dominguez. This also saves $4-5M Sign: - Bryce Harper - Craig Kimbrel - Justin Wilson Lineup: Contreras / Rizzo / Zobrist / Baez / Bryant / Schwarber / Heyward / Harper Bench: Happ / Almora / Caratini / Bote Rotation: Darvish / Lester / Hendricks / Quintana / Smyly Swing: Monty / Chatwood / Mills Bullpen: Kimbrel / Morrow / Strop / Dominguez / Edwards / Cishek / Wilson Shuttle: Maples / Mekkes / Webster / Rosario / Norwood / Alzolay / etc Okay, so let's talk about the SP first - while I really appreciate what we've gotten from Hamels, I am not sure about committing $20M to him next year. And even though it shouldn't really matter, I feel like we have too many similar pitchers in Lester, Hamels & Quintana. We'll have a three way competition in spring training between Smyly, Monty and Chatwood for the final rotation spot. I'll go with Smyly actually being healthy out of ST and winning the job to start the year. The other two give us solid backup plans along with the parade of depth guys we're building in AA & AAA. Harper is a no brainer, of course. When you have a chance to add a generational talent, you do it. Trading Russell is pretty much a must at this point. From a baseball perspective, I strongly believe that he is who has shown himself to be - a 2.5-4 win player on an annual basis. For that kind of value, I think there are teams out there that will be willing to take on the headache (depending on the ultimate findings from MLB, of course). We might have to add from our bevy of mid-level prospects, but that's okay. For the return, I want a quality reliever that has proven himself in MLB, but is still well pre-arb. Just for the idea of a return, I threw Seranthony Dominguez out there. JP Crawford has really struggled in the bigs so far and is nowhere near as good defensively as Russell. Philly has money to spend and they believe that their window starts now, so Russell's increasing costs shouldn't bother them that much and they'll still get three years of control. Meanwhile Dominguez has broken into the majors with solid performance in 2018 and still has six years of control remaining. The biggest (baseball) problem with this deal is the timing. I think Philly will be pushing hard for Machado and wouldn't make this trade until that's resolved. On our end, we'll have to wait for MLB to conclude its investigation and determine Russell's fate before we could make a move. It may end up that the Cubs just need to non-tender Russell. In which case, sub Happ in here for Addison - Philly's OF production sucked last year, too. On a side note, we may need to also sign a backup SS. If only Short had made a bit more contact and hit for a bit more average this year I'd be more willing to roll with him at Iowa and an occasional call-up to give Javy a blow. Signing a backup SS would pretty much "seal" LaStella's fate, meaning he would have to be traded for whatever flyer we could get in return. When we market him, we should mention Scooter Gennett. Often. To complete the team, we overload the pen. Kimbrel will be expensive as hell, but he's been incredibly durable, hasn't shown many signs of decline and is a force at the end of games. Let's stop messing around with it and just sign him to be the man. Wilson has shown himself to be reliable in the second half of this year and provides some left handed heat from the pen. The list above looks light on lefties, but is bolstered by Monty / Smyly. Not to mention that there's a bunch of guys on that list that are tough on both lefties and righties. I'll just count on Morrow spending a lot of time on the DL during the year and we rotate other guys through there to keep guys rested as we go. I trust the front office to fit 15+ pitchers onto the 25 man roster somehow. I thought about Miller instead of Kimbrel, but he's older, was injured this year and has been tailing off each of the past couple years. I know others prefer to invest elsewhere given the depth of the market. I get that. I could be convinced to go that direction, too. I just don't see any other names on that list that inspire the same kind of warm and fuzzy thoughts of "now THIS is something even Joe can't screw up". I also looked at lefties other than Wilson and didn't see anyone there that inspired me, but I'm happy to go a different direction there. RE: the Shuttle - I'm pretty sure that Mills performance down the stretch has him making the team in 2019. I believe he's out of options anyway, so if they want him in the org, they'll have to find room for him. Let us all say our prayers all offseason long that Maples & Mekkes develop a miraculous increase in control/command this winter (add in Edwards, too, I guess). In summary, the OF defense is questionable (at best) and there's some collapse potential in the rotation, even with the multiple backup options. But the super pen should allow the team to shorten the game and keep the starters from seeing the heart of the order too many times in the same game. With the multiple options available in Tenn & Iowa next year, we should be able to use a few phantom DL stints to get guys some rest, too.
  6. We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters. We rated pretty well on strikeout rate this year. We scored fewer runs with a higher variance per game than last year when we were poor with the strikeout rate. What makes you think strikeouts are the problem? Strikeout rate has a negative correlation with runs scored in MLB this year, but it is pretty small at -.235. Home run rate has a correlation that is more than twice as strong at a positive .544 On Base percentage has a correlation of .907, which is really high. In fact, once again it ranks as the single biggest "causal" factor for runs scored. HR 0.544443909 SB 0.195054943 BB% 0.445137019 K% -0.234992411 ISO 0.653393876 BABIP 0.513961878 AVG 0.731114957 OBP 0.907251889 SLG 0.865150567 wOBA 0.938307495 wRC+ 0.714276419 BsR 0.245655124
  7. He could have either taken the hbp for the team or just not swung the damn bat. Either way he's on base.
  8. Offseason priority list: 1) Get Bryant the best shoulder treatment possible That alone will fix a lot of problems on the team.
  9. if Gore gets an inside pitch in his AB, he'd damn well better stick a body part in front of it
  10. Chris Rusin?!? So you're saying there's a chance
  11. lol @ espn's camera work not showing a definitive replay
  12. Best chance for a single to drive in the tying run.
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