Fred Hornkohl

I'm gonna go way out on a limb here and bet you a cyber nickel that neither one of those two will be on our roster in '06.

TOP OF THE FIRST INNING Podsednik flied out to left field Iguchi flied out to right field Dye doubled to right center field Konerko grounded out to the pitcher, 1-3 0 runs, 1 hits, 0 errors, 1 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E white sox 0 0 1 0 Houston . 0 0 0 pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR PIT Backe 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 21

I'm really surprised anybody noticed. Good job !

Can the Astros avoid the sweep ?? http://mlb.mlb.com/images/logos/38x45/cws_38x45.gif Freddy Garcia Podsednik, lf Iguchi, 2b Dye, rf Konerko, 1b Pierzynski, c Rowand, cf Crede, 3b Uribe, ss Garcia, p @ http://mlb.mlb.com/images/logos/38x45/hou_38x45.gif Brandon Backe Biggio, 2b Taveras, cf Berkman, lf Ensberg, 3b Lamb, 1b Lane, rf Ausmus, c Everett, ss Backe, p

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation. I've been told by Cub management that there is no Fred and there never was. You'll say the same if you catch my drift. Like my old buddy Mark Twain said.... "The reports of my demise have been greatly exagerated." :wink:

The Cubs payroll is a long way from the Red Sox's and the Yankees and is projected to be the near equivalent of the Cardinals (from a dinkly little town like St. Louis) in 2006. Trib paid $20 million for the Cubs and it's now (20+years later) projected to be worth $500 - $600 million. It's time to put some of that capital gain (not just revenue) back into the product or time for the Tribune conglomerate to cash in their goldmine of an investment. Being competitive in no longer good enough. Don't you understand that there is no capital gain until you sell the asset ??

The white sox owned this city from the mid 50's through the mid 60's. During that time, their won/loss record was second only to the Yankees, and only by a margin of 53 wins over the 13 year period. I haven't yet found a source for the attendance figures from the period, but I don't believe I'm going out on a limb here saying they outdrew the CUBS by a pretty good margin. That all changed around 1967 when the CUBS under Durocher started winning and the white sox tanked. You must also realize that that was a completely different era in that back then you could go to either ball park an hour before game time, purchase a good seat, and walk in and see a game. Those days are gone forever, I'm afraid. 1954 thru 1966 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 876 1165 0.429 0 0 0 Chicago White Sox 1164 886 0.568 1 0 1

Rock.... here's a quick approximation for you: Our left fielders (Hollandsworth, Dubois, Lawton & Murton) had about 20 more plate appearances (roughly 3%) than Adam Dunn, so there will be a greater degree of inaccuracy with this one. Also, I've made no adjustments for games that these 4 players played somewhere else other than LF or for any other players playing left field for us. Here's what their lines look like: 04/04 - 10/02 AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Hol/Dub/Mur/Law 632 65 166 34 4 20 268 76 45 132 0.263 0.315 0.424 0.739 Dunn 543 107 134 35 2 40 293 101 114 168 0.247 0.387 0.540 0.927 The gain in OBP is .072 for left field, or divided by 9, .008 for the team totals. OPS gain .188 for left field, or .021 for the team total. The net effect then, would look like this: CUBS with Hol/Dub/Mur/Law Dunn OBP .324 .332 League Rank 11 8 Difference from mean -.006 .002 Z Score (# std dev from mean) -.78 .16 The effect on OPS is even more dramatic......... CUBS with Hol/Dub/Mur/Law Dunn OPS .764 .785 League Rank 4 1 Difference from mean .020 .041 Z Score (# std dev from mean) .90 1.66 Now for the ultimate what if question...... What if the CUBS had traded Burnitz for Giles AND Hollandsworth/Dubois/Murton/Lawton for Adam Dunn a year ago ???? In addition to adding the appriopriate gain to the CUBS' line, let's also make the appropriate reduction from the stat lines of Cincinnati & San Diego. This is what the league totals would look like...... 10/02 BA OBP SLG OPS Chicago 0.273 0.343 0.458 0.801 Philadelphia 0.270 0.348 0.423 0.771 Atlanta 0.265 0.333 0.435 0.768 Cincinnati 0.263 0.331 0.433 0.764 St. Louis 0.270 0.339 0.423 0.762 Milwaukee 0.259 0.331 0.423 0.754 Arizona 0.256 0.332 0.421 0.753 Florida 0.272 0.339 0.409 0.748 Colorado 0.267 0.333 0.411 0.744 NY Mets 0.258 0.322 0.416 0.738 Houston 0.256 0.322 0.408 0.730 Pittsburgh 0.259 0.322 0.400 0.722 Los Angeles 0.253 0.326 0.395 0.721 San Francisco 0.261 0.319 0.396 0.715 San Diego 0.252 0.322 0.386 0.708 Washington 0.252 0.322 0.386 0.708 Maximum 0.273 0.348 0.458 0.801 Minimum 0.252 0.319 0.386 0.708 Average 0.262 0.330 0.414 0.744 Notice, that now we have the CUBS leading the lead in BA, SLG & OPS, and trailing only Philadelphia by .005 in OBP. That difference can easily be overcome by replacing Corey with Hairston. In any case, Mr Hendry, you have your work cut out for you. Go CUBS !!

Vance.... here's a quick approximation for you: Given that Giles & Burnitz had nearly identical plate appearances (664 AB+BB to 662 AB+BB), and Giles had an OBP of .423 to Burnitz's .322 ....... that's a difference of .101 for RF. If you divide that by 9 positions on the team, that's a difference to the team rate of .011. The net effect then would be: CUBS with Burnitz Giles OBP .324 ,335 League Rank 11 5 Difference from mean -.006 .005 Z Score (# std dev from mean) -.78 .59 Giles alone would have leap frogged us past half the league. Doing similar calculations on Burnitz & Giles' SLG, the net effect on OPS would bring the CUBS from .764 (4th place) to .780 (2nd place) just .005 behind league leading Cincinnati. I don't have the formulas to extrapolate all this to additional runs and expected wins, but you get the idea. I'd certainly be willing to pay an additional 7 or 8 million per annum for this kind of additional production. Thanks, Fred. So if I'm interpreting those numbers correctly, even with the injuries and the left-field debacle, had the 2004 Cubs had Giles in the place of Burnitz, we would have been a top 5 offense. That would have definitely put us in contention for the wild card. Giles, please! Yes, that's top 5 in OBP and #2 in OPS.

This really Sox. I'm going to be suffering from LLD until at least half past April. Did I mention that I really really hate the white sox ???

If they'd ever started to melt down the umps would probably have stepped in anyway. This is sad to watch. Come now, the umps have been bad but the Sox have earned their success thus far - crap balls and strikes calls included.. What ??? Those yahoos can't even sit down because of those horseshoes !!!

You know.... I really really hate the white sox !

Geoff Blum ???? You gotta be freakin' kidding me !!! :pukel:

Marvelous play there by Ensberg !! That's a game saver !!

Seems to me.... all the Astros need right now is 1 half inning of scoring, no? :wink:

Wow.... Atros have drawn 9 walks in the last 6 innings. Seems to me, the CUBS drew 9 walks in a game 1 time this season, and they scored 9 runs that day !!

You're drunk, aren't you? Watching the white sox has that effect on people, I'm told. :wink:

Have I mentioned lately that I really really hate the white sox ?

Vance.... here's a quick approximation for you: Given that Giles & Burnitz had nearly identical plate appearances (664 AB+BB to 662 AB+BB), and Giles had an OBP of .423 to Burnitz's .322 ....... that's a difference of .101 for RF. If you divide that by 9 positions on the team, that's a difference to the team rate of .011. The net effect then would be: CUBS with Burnitz Giles OBP .324 ,335 League Rank 11 5 Difference from mean -.006 .005 Z Score (# std dev from mean) -.78 .59 Giles alone would have leap frogged us past half the league. Doing similar calculations on Burnitz & Giles' SLG, the net effect on OPS would bring the CUBS from .764 (4th place) to .780 (2nd place) just .005 behind league leading Cincinnati. I don't have the formulas to extrapolate all this to additional runs and expected wins, but you get the idea. I'd certainly be willing to pay an additional 7 or 8 million per annum for this kind of additional production.

This, unfortunately, is not news. :sad:

BOTTOM OF THE NINTH INNING Lidge in to pitch for Houston Uribe flied out to center field Podsednik homered to right center field 1 runs, 1 hits, 0 errors, 0 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Houston 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 6 9 0 white sox 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 7 12 0 W: Cotts S: none L: Lidge Home runs: Houston: Ensberg (1), white sox: Konrerko (1), Podsednik (1) pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR HB PIT Petitte 6.0 8 2 2 0 4 0 0 98 Wheeler 0.7 1 3 3 1 1 0 1 22 Qualls 0.7 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 10 Gallo 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 Lidge 0.3 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 09 pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR PIT Buehrle 7.0 7 4 4 0 6 1 0 100 Politte 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 11 Jenks 0.7 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 16 Cotts 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

TOP OF THE NINTH INNING Jenks in to pitch for the white sox Bagwell singled to center field Lane struck out swinging Burke walked, Bagwell to second Ausmus grounded out to first, unassisted, Bagwell to third, Burke to second Vizcaino, pinch hitting for A Everett, singled to left field, Bagwell & Burke scored, Vizcaino taking second on the throw Cotts in to pitch for the white sox Lamb, pinch hitting for Bruntlett, flied out to left field 2 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 1 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Houston 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 6 9 0 white sox 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 6 11 0 Home runs: Houston: Ensberg (1), white sox: Konrerko (1) pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR HB PIT Petitte 6.0 8 2 2 0 4 0 0 98 Wheeler 0.7 1 3 3 1 1 0 1 22 Qualls 0.7 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 10 Gallo 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR PIT Buehrle 7.0 7 4 4 0 6 1 0 100 Politte 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 11 Jenks 0.7 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 16 Cotts 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

Good call !!

OK, there's a good start. Everybody got their rally caps on ??

BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH INNING Rowand grounded out to third, 5-3 Gallo in to pitch for Houston Pierzynski grounded out to second, 4-3 Crede grounded out to third, 5-3 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Houston 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 4 7 0 white sox 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 6 11 0 Home runs: Houston: Ensberg (1), white sox: Konrerko (1) pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR HB PIT Petitte 6.0 8 2 2 0 4 0 0 98 Wheeler 0.7 1 3 3 1 1 0 1 22 Qualls 0.7 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 10 Gallo 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR PIT Buehrle 7.0 7 4 4 0 6 1 0 100 Politte 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 11