Fred Hornkohl

Well, there's sex........ no, I guess not. Not during the game, I hope. Don't knock it until you've tried it, eh?

Well, there's sex........ no, I guess not.

Chicago Bears begin at 2:11 1-10-BUF 49 (2:11) T.Jones left tackle to BUF 38 for 11 yards (K.Simpson). 1-10-BUF 38 (1:37) T.Jones right guard to BUF 30 for 8 yards (K.Simpson). 2-2-BUF 30 (:54) T.Jones right guard to BUF 28 for 2 yards (T.Anderson). PENALTY on BUF-L.Tripplett, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 30 - No Play. 1-10-BUF 25 (:35) T.Jones left guard to BUF 18 for 7 yards (D.Whitner). 2-3-BUF 18 (15:00) R.Grossman pass short left to T.Jones to BUF 11 for 7 yards (K.Ellison). 1-10-BUF 11 (14:19) T.Jones right guard to BUF 7 for 4 yards (C.Wire). 2-6-BUF 7 (13:38) T.Jones right end pushed ob at BUF 8 for -1 yards (K.Ellison). 3-7-BUF 8 (13:06) R.Grossman pass short middle to B.Berrian for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Let's hope he's got 11 more yards in him this drive. I want to see if Gould can make one of those 1-point field goals. Piece o'cake !!

Jones for 7 more. Now 8 rushes for 50 yards.

Jones for 8 more !!

Jones up the middle for 11 !!!

There's sack #1

Chicago Bears at 07:29 1-10-CHI20 (7:29) R.Grossman pass incomplete deep right to M.Muhammad. 2-10-CHI20 (7:23) R.Grossman pass incomplete short middle to B.Berrian. PENALTY on BUF-T.McGee, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at CHI 20 - No Play. 1-10-CHI39 (7:19) R.Grossman pass short right to J.Gilmore to CHI 46 for 7 yards (L.Fletcher-Baker, K.Ellison). 2-3-CHI46 (6:42) T.Jones left guard to CHI 48 for 2 yards (R.Denney). 3-1-CHI48 (6:01) R.Grossman pass short middle to D.Clark to BUF 40 for 12 yards (K.Simpson). 1-10-BUF40 (5:19) T.Jones left end to BUF 35 for 5 yards (K.Simpson, N.Clements). 2-5-BUF35 (4:41) T.Jones left end to BUF 25 for 10 yards (K.Thomas). 1-10-BUF25 (4:01) R.Grossman pass incomplete short left to B.Berrian (N.Clements). 2-10-BUF25 (3:56) R.Grossman pass incomplete short left to B.Berrian. 3-10-BUF25 (3:53) R.Grossman pass incomplete short middle to M.Muhammad [K.Thomas]. 4-10-BUF25 (3:48) R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-P.Mannelly, Holder-B.Maynard. BUF 0 CHI 6, Plays: 10 Yards: 55 Possession: 3:46.

Yeah... but Robbie Gould sure is !!

All this love is making me sick !! This is supposed to be football !!!

Buffalo Bills begin at 9:07 R.Gould kicks 68 yards from CHI 30 to BUF 2. T.McGee to BUF 26 for 24 yards (D.Manning). 1-10-BUF 26 (8:58) J.Losman pass short left to L.Evans to BUF 33 for 7 yards (B.Urlacher). 2-3-BUF 33 (8:20) W.McGahee left guard to BUF 34 for 1 yard (A.Garay). 3-2-BUF 34 (7:42) J.Losman pass incomplete short right to J.Reed (B.Urlacher). 4-2-BUF 34 (7:37) B.Moorman punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-M.Schneck, Touchback.

Oh... spend the $39 and get the NFL Audio package !!

FIrst score of the day...... Rams 6 Green bay 0 pending PAT

Bills win the coin toss. Last thing they're gonna win today, no?

The Bears get caught in traffic, miss the game and have to forfeit. :lol: Must be a California thing, no? Jealous? Jealous of a state that builds the finest system of intraurban highways known to mankind, then for 50 years running, refuses to educate it's citizens on how to drive on such highways ??? Certainly not !!

The Bears get caught in traffic, miss the game and have to forfeit. :lol: Must be a California thing, no?

Michael Irvin has a predisposition for mind altering chemicals, no?

And Hendry should be located at the nearest bar, trying to drown out his sorrows of losing Piniella. I don't know about that. Don't the Krispy Kreme shops stay open late? I don't think he's using anymore. Krispy Kreme has tumbled to 8.47 per share. Down from over $12 in mid-May. The withdrawal must be really bad, no?

I was just about to call you everything but a gentleman..... then I noticed the reverse jinx. Carry on. :oops: I'm looking forward to the 49ers game to see what he can come up with. The ghost of Kermit Alexander ???

I was just about to call you everything but a gentleman..... then I noticed the reverse jinx. Carry on. :oops:

Sample size alert! Maddux' hot start is in Lee's column (the first 4 I believe). Who were we playing in Lee's starts? How many of Prior's and Wood's starts was Lee privileged to attend? Perez was playing second when Walker was at first. Walker and Theriot were playing second for Lee. Is that fair? Based on this data, is Nevin a better player than Lee? Five or six wins. It doesn't really matter if the Cubs would have won 72 or 77 games with a healthy Lee. What matters is planning for next year. And penciling in more than 5 or 6 wins with a healthy Lee is a recipe for heartbreak. And there is plenty of potential for more of that anyway. Sample size only becomes an issue when one is attempting to draw a statisical inference from the data. Just so we're clear, there is no statistical inference being drawn here. And since you asked, here are the games that DLee started....... Gm# Date Opponent Score Starter 1 Mon 04/03 @ Cincinnati 16- 7 Zambrano 2 Wed 04/05 @ Cincinnati 6- 8 Rusch 3 Fri 04/07 St. Louis 5- 1 Maddux 4 Sat 04/08 St. Louis 3- 2 Zambrano 5 Sun 04/09 St. Louis N 8- 4 Marshall 6 Tue 04/11 Cincinnati 2- 9 Rusch 7 Wed 04/12 Cincinnati 4- 1 Maddux 8 Thu 04/13 Cincinnati 3- 8 Zambrano 9 Fri 04/14 @ Pittsburgh N 11- 6 Marshall 10 Sat 04/15 @ Pittsburgh N 1- 2 Williams 11 Sun 04/16 @ Pittsburgh 7- 3 Rusch 12 Mon 04/17 @ Los Angeles N 4- 1 Maddux 13 Tue 04/18 @ Los Angeles N 1- 2 Zambrano 14 Wed 04/19 @ Los Angeles N 5- 4 Marshall 75 Mon 06/26 Milwaukee N 0- 6 Maddux 76 Tue 06/27 Milwaukee N 5- 8 Zambrano 77 Wed 06/28 Milwaukee 6- 3 Marmol 78 Thu 06/29 Milwaukee 4- 5 Prior 79 Fri 06/30 Chicago (AL) 2- 6 Marshall 80 Sat 07/01 Chicago (AL) 6- 8 Maddux 81 Sun 07/02 Chicago (AL) 15-11 Zambrano 82 Mon 07/03 @ Houston N 2- 7 Marmol 83 Tue 07/04 @ Houston 2- 7 Prior 84 Wed 07/05 @ Houston N 1- 0 Marshall 85 Thu 07/06 @ Milwaukee N 0- 2 Maddux 87 Sat 07/08 @ Milwaukee N 3- 1 Marmol 88 Sun 07/09 @ Milwaukee 11- 4 Rusch 89 Fri 07/14 New York 3- 6 Maddux 90 Sat 07/15 New York 9- 2 Zambrano 92 Tue 07/18 Houston N 4- 2 Marmol 93 Wed 07/19 Houston N 2- 4 Maddux 97 Sun 07/23 @ Washington 1- 7 Marmol 131 Mon 08/28 @ Pittsburgh N 6-11 Guzman 132 Tue 08/29 @ Pittsburgh N 6- 7 Zambrano 134 Fri 09/01 San Francisco 6- 2 Hill 135 Sat 09/02 San Francisco 2- 4 Marshall 137 Mon 09/04 Pittsburgh 4- 5 Zambrano 138 Tue 09/05 Pittsburgh N 5- 6 Mateo 139 Wed 09/06 Pittsburgh N 7- 2 Hill 141 Fri 09/08 @ Atlanta N 4- 8 Guzman 142 Sat 09/09 @ Atlanta N 3- 7 Miller 144 Mon 09/11 @ Atlanta N 8- 3 Hill 145 Tue 09/12 Los Angeles N 9- 8 Marshall 147 Thu 09/14 Los Angeles 6- 5 Miller

But if Ramirez, for example, doesn't hit when Lee is out, why give him a pass? The stats show everybody's contributions. If someone is affected by Lee's absence, I think we should chalk that up as a debit on the affected player. Lee's absence cost the Cubs about 50 runs assuming he hit like he did this year and 2004 and 2003. Not because of VORP but because of the actual stiffs who took his ABs (Perez and Mabry the two biggest offenders). That's five wins. You want to add a win for his D, maybe. A 72 win team with Barrett missing serious time and a terrrible starting rotation. I think the statistical approach is more than fair. For what it's worth........ Team record by starting first baseman CUBS are 21-23 when Lee starts at 1b CUBS are 10-25 when Walker starts at 1b CUBS are 2-4 when Blanco starts at 1b CUBS are 15-23 when Mabry starts at 1b CUBS are 16-17 when Nevin starts at 1b CUBS are 2-4 when Moore starts at 1b

CUBS w/Lee AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 04/01 - 04/19 480 76 134 23 4 14 207 68 35 85 0.279 0.326 0.431 0.758 06/26 - 07/23 614 76 171 37 7 17 273 73 49 122 0.279 0.332 0.445 0.777 08/28 - 09/14 424 66 116 16 2 11 169 61 39 78 0.274 0.338 0.399 0.736 It seems that when Derrek came back in late June and really struggled, the team sure did pick him up !!

This doesn't really address your question about VORP, but it should provide some interesting background for the answer you are seeking. Derrek Lee started 44 games for the CUBS this year, or approx 27% of their schedule. The teams' record was as follows........ W L Pct RS RA with Lee 21 23 0.477 4.95 4.89 w/o Lee 45 73 0.381 4.22 5.25 Further, the offenive production breaks down like this....... 04/03 - 10/01 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/Lee 1518 218 421 76 13 42 649 202 123 285 0.277 0.332 0.428 0.759 CUBS w/o Lee 4069 498 1076 195 33 124 1709 475 272 643 0.264 0.314 0.420 0.734 Interestingly, the pitching line breaks down this way.......... 04/03 - 10/01 IP H R ER BB K HR BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA CUBS w/Lee 390.0 355 215 189 176 347 61 4.06 8.01 1.41 1.36 4.36 CUBS w/o Lee 1040.7 1041 619 571 511 903 149 4.42 7.81 1.29 1.49 4.94 Aother thing that caught my eye...... with Lee in the lineup 88% of RA were earned, while 92% of RA were earned when Lee was out. I'm not sure I have a conclusion to draw from all this. I just started looking at it when I saw your post. Lee's VORP will certainly account for most of the dropoff in production displayed above. But I don't think it will provide any insight into the very significant dropoff in pitching production. Love to hear anyone's comments and thoughts.