My point was that heading into 2004, we had every right to think we would have a very productive offense. Things rarely work out just like they're supposed to, though. It'd be foolish to assume they will, or that the odds we get a ton of career years from people is more likely than getting injury-plagued half-seasons from important players. So comparing positions, based on the preseason expectations, we would have ended up with this.
Pos 2004 vs 2007
C Barrett = Barrett
1b Lee = Lee
2b Walker >>> DeRosa
SS Gonzalez = Izturis
3b Aram = Aram
RF Sosa >>> Soriano
CF CPatt >>> Jones
LF Alou >>> Murton
You can make the argument again that 2004 didn't turn out well... but that's kinda my point. We had a much better group then and didn't get near the production we were looking for. Do you really think this ragtag bunch of misfits is more likely to give us that production than the 2004 group was? While I agree with you for the most part, I think it's fair to point out that both Lee and Ramirez were lesser offensive players pre-2004. I think that most people would have expected a .270/.360/.880 line from Lee in 2004, and about a .270/.330/.800 line from Ramirez. Either of those lines would be sorely disappointing in 2007. So counting expectations as equal pre-2004 and now for those players would be inaccurate, IMO. I expected Patterson to be really good in 2004, and I expected AGon to at least hit 20 homers, making him better than Izturis. I expected Walker to be better than I expect DeRosa to be. Also, Sosa was in pretty clear decline. I don't expect his 2003 numbers to be as good as Soriano's 2007, numbers, and I sure didn't expect his 2004 numbers to be either. Barrett was also an unknown quantity. I didn't expect much from him in 2004, except to be better than Miller/Bako, which is saying very little. I didn't expect Alou to produce like he did on 2004, either. Here's my relative expectation chart: 2007 2004 C Barrett >>> Barrett 1B Lee >> Lee 2B DeRosa << Walker SS Izturis < Gonzo 3B Ramirez >> Ramirez RF Soriano > Sosa CF Jones << Patterson LF Murton < Alou And the lack of expected production in 2004 had a lot to do with injury as well.