XZero771679666304
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Everything posted by XZero771679666304
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Taking a look =/= addressing the needs. They've valued their long term needs above their short term needs, just as they said they would (and should). The only "miss" I have reservation about (to this point) is Darvish. -
I don't doubt that there is a method here that will payoff in the future. I just have a problem with ignoring 2012 when it was possible to make the team competitive without ruining their chances in the future. I take some issue with the implication that 2012 has been "ignored". Just because the team didn't land guys (to this point) doesn't mean they weren't in to some degree. If they offered Pujols a shorter, smarter deal, that is an attempt. The fact that the Angels and Marlins pushed the price into the stupid range doesn't mean Theo and Jed ignored him. Same with Darvish. Texas blew the other bids (including that of the "favorite" Jays) out of the water, by most accounts. Does that mean Jed and Theo didn't even try? And how do we know the price for Headley wasn't unreasonable? And Aramis is the one who declined his part. Should they have given him 3 years just to salvage 2012? And Fielder and the Cubans are still out there, still more dominoes to fall. It's fairly obvious at this point that 2012 is likely to be an ugly rebuilding year, but I don't think for a second the FO simply said "[expletive] 2012, we're blowing this thing up." Being measured =/= ignoring.
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You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games. And considering that Volstad induces lots of ground balls and Wood does not.
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Right. Signing Fielder right now would be a more prudent move than waiting for Votto (who may or may not even make it to FA). Banking on potential free agents not to be extended by their team or traded and extended while passing on current FAs is a flawed and dangerous strategy.
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I think there's very little chance Ryan Zimmerman will leave the Nationals. In fact, I'd be rather shocked. I'm not doubting you, I'm just curious as to why. Does he have a strong commitment to the team and/or city that I don't know about? Would he give a large "hometown discount?" He'll have been there for a while and there's a decent chance they'll be pretty damn good by the time he's a FA. I find it interesting how many times Votto's name comes up in terms of FA targets when he'll be 31 by the time he's available. I don't think many people realize how old he is.
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And keeping him for that run to 75 wins makes sense? Or keeping him until the deadline to get the same return (assuming he pitches well, which is at best 50/50) for two months of him and no draft pick? I think some people had some serious misconceptions about what the best case scenario for a Z trade was, because this was pretty close. I knew this was gonna be a rough ride when the news first broke and people started tossing LoMo's name out there.
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I think we might get more for him at the deadline, when teams are good and desperate. If the Yankees are in a dogfight with the Sox in July, they might be more willing to surrender a package with Montero and one of the Bs. If you can't get what you want for him now, start extension talks and if they don't go smoothly, deal him in July.
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i dunno, i'm sure some people expect zambrano could pitch better and increase his trade value during the first 3-4 months, other people were probably just big fans of him, and then many expected a better return if the cubs were eating that much salary (see: logan morrison talk). but it definitely sucks to see kaplan gloating after a victory in his "get rid of the brown guys" crusade. I just think most of us valued Big Z more than the market did because we watch him enough to know that he's more than the meltdown machine he has been portrayed as. But the reality was that this was about as good as it was going to get, and if you're not competing in 2012, you have to move him. I'm a huge fan of Z, but I reconciled with this eventuality a while ago.
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I don't love it, but I understand why it happened and that this was about the most we could expect. The whole saga is just unfortunate.
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one issue i had with that fangraphs piece is that zambrano has, up until last year, consistently outpitched his xFIP, to the point where you can't just write it off as a fluke. even with his ERA being a half run higher than his xFIP last year, his career ERA is still more than a half run higher than his xFIP. Yea. There was that and the fact that they mentioned how Volstad had 60+ more innings when Zambrano's inning total was obviously severely impacted by his "suspension." And his trip to the bullpen.
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Did Garza get traded and everyone missed it?
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Truly the worst part of seeing Z and ARam go is knowing it pleases Kaplan. I'm sure he feels some sort of smug vindication. He's probably masturbating as we speak.
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Or they're building the team for long-term purposes exactly like they said they were going to do. What? Z's gone after this year and if the news is true they are getting no salary relief. Volstad is not a building block, he's a non-tender candidate. I think Theo was given his orders. Theo was trying to get whatever he could for a guy who wasn't going to make a difference in 2012 and wasn't going to be a part of the team beyond. I don't think salary relief was coming unless he took nothing in return.
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The real outlier over the past few season for Zambrano was the second half of 2010, when his babip took a nosedive. Take that out and it looks like downward trend. I'm just not sure his stuff is there anymore. Could he have had a good first half? Sure. But I think it's just as likely he didn't. And it's not like there was a chance in hell he was going to be retained beyond 2012. Even if he did have decent first half you have to balance that against the fact a trade partner was only going to get 2 months instead of a full season. It's just not likely we'd have gotten any more for him in July than right now, all things considered. There certainly wasn't enough likelihood that there would be a significantly better deal in July to get at all upset about this.
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This is a really [expletive] stupid post. Not if you weren't supposed to derive anything from it other than, "Oh yeah. Guess they were." It's not like I made the claim, "This guy sucks in big games!" You need to lighten up. No, it was still really stupid. What's really weird is that you pretty much acknowledged that it was stupid and made it anyway. And then defended it. I don't know if stupid is as accurate a description as completely irrelevant to the discussion.
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I suspect this sort of thing has much more to do with the angst over this (and Aramis) than actual logical reasons. I loved those guys, Z in particular, but there's a time to let it go.
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Yea, I don't normally buy into chemistry arguments. Ever. But Zambrano is pretty much the definition of the exception to that belief. I don't even care about the chemistry/attitude stuff. I just think his trade value had very little chance to increase before the deadline and a fair to good chance to decrease due to on the field factors. Keeping for the full year would have been pointless.
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I'm not crazy about Dominguez, but I'd have rather had him. At least Dominguez would be under control for 6 seasons where we're trying. Volstad will give us 2. I question whether Dominguez will ever been even a mediocre regular. His offensive numbers have been pretty bad at just about every level. If we got him, I'd try and spin him somewhere else.
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Jesus Christ, Volstad isn't nothing. What hyperbolic garbage. This is what a Z trade was always going to be, I don't know why some people are so shocked by it.
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I love Big Z and am sad to see him go. But you have to make a deal like this, imo.
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Yeah, this is pretty much how I feel about it. Anything gained by a realistically decent performance in the first half would be negated by the fact a partner would only get two months of him. And if he didn't perform, you get nothing. I'm absolutely fine with this. If we get a prospect or two, I'll be pleased.
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If we're intent on being a [expletive] team, why not let Z pitch for 3 months, prove he can coexist with people and then trade him rather than trade him fresh off a hissy fit suspension by our blowhard ex-GM. The Hendryness of this move is very troubling to me. With no hope of draft compensation, I find it tough to believe that there's a bunch of trade value for Z to recapture when his new team would have him for 2 months. Would it be that hard to get a Chris Volstad for him at the deadline? If Z crapped the bed in the first half? For two months of him? We'd get nothing. Aside from Z reverting to his 2004-2007 form for 4 months, there's not much chance we'd have gotten any more, either.
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Pretty much how I feel. i agree except for the last sentence. much more fun to ignore his several-year track record and call him a moron within two months of him starting with the cubs. But he said every chance to win was sacred but he didn't sign Pujols and isn't going for it in 2012 like I thought he would and wanted him to we're not going to compete for 4 years OMG he's broken or we've been bamboozled RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE
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If we're intent on being a [expletive] team, why not let Z pitch for 3 months, prove he can coexist with people and then trade him rather than trade him fresh off a hissy fit suspension by our blowhard ex-GM. The Hendryness of this move is very troubling to me. With no hope of draft compensation, I find it tough to believe that there's a bunch of trade value for Z to recapture when his new team would have him for 2 months. Exactly. This is always what a Zambrano deal was going to be like. Volstad/Dominguez would be pretty good compared what I was expecting. Hendry would have gotten less. Hendry would have paid his entire salary plus an extra 5 mil and Starlin Castro just so they'd take him, amiright? No, but Hendry was more motivated to simply be rid of him than Theo is.
