Practically zero unless he suddenly fails to secure another top 10 recruiting class, although if he goes 7-5/6-6 with the schedule put before him it'd be interesting to see the reaction. ND's schedule is practically begging for 8 wins or more if the team improves as much as freshmen-to-sophomore improvement normally would suggest they will. ETA: Only morons call him the genius, this term is now used almost exclusively by Internet trolls. I'm not entirely sure I see more than 6-7 wins for sure. San Diego State, Stanford, Navy, Washington and Syracuse are relatively sure wins (Stanford and Navy might be in question, but probably not) North Carolina could be a win, but I'm not sure ND is much better than UNC right now - it's definitely not a sure thing. Otherwise, ND has one sure loss (USC) and five tough games (Michigan, @Purdue, Michigan State, Pitt and @BC). Given that, I'm not sure 8 wins is a sure thing. Less than 6-7 would be awful though. I think ND has a good chance of winning two of the five tough games - even the reprehensibly bad early-season version of the Irish managed to hang with MSU and Purdue last year, and Pitt isn't very good, plus it's at home. Obviously, I'm banking on a lot of improvement, though. Your assessment of the schedule's pretty good. They could win 8 games, my argument is just that it's far from a sure thing. As for the MSU and Purdue games, ND gets the Boilermakers on the road (though, granted, MSU is at home) plus, you can't ignore potential improvements from MSU and Purdue. I'm not sure how Purdue stacks up, but MSU is likely going to be better this year since last year was spent cleaning up John L. Smith's mess. I would think winning one of two of those is a decent bet. And I try to be unbiased with ND and analyze them honestly, I've got no deep-seeded problems with them. :D