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TheDude

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Everything posted by TheDude

  1. TheDude
    Sorry, not trying to pick on you here, but how in the world is a 27 year old ball player too old to not fit into a long-term plan?
  2. TheDude
    I didn't say you have to care. There are people who value the thoughts of hall of fame baseball writers.
  3. TheDude
    Hmmm...how about reasons that isn't a precursor (for Dunn anyway)? -Reds not likely to trade within division -Reds have stated they are not trading any of their OF -Reds have been asking for an arm, leg, and half the Pacific Ocean for any player; Gerut is an OF, where the Reds already have depth and 4 OFs likely preferable to their team. -Hendry wanted a guy long-term. Hollandsworth and Grieve were stop-gap. Gerut could be long-term. -Other organizations have been (rumored to be) turned away from Dunn with or even Randa for some pretty attractive packages of prospects. -Reds are run by dopes.
  4. TheDude
    We did dicuss it, and i think the general feeling is that the club doesn't think much of Grieve. Gerut and Grieve are very similar, though. BTW, any news on a 25 man move to clear room for Gerut?? There are plenty of folks who (rightly IMO) pointed out that Gerut is an improvement over Grieve. They are only similar if you look strictly at a subset of hitting numbers. Gerut is the vastly superior defender and is younger, with a much higher scouting upside than Grieve. Gerut has the versatility to adjust his game, has a very good eye, and is a very strong "team player" sort of guy. Some baseball people, like Gammons, have an unhealthy bit of manlove for Gerut. I have not heard Gammons comments on this trade, but I wouldn't be surprised if he said the Cubs got a steal.
  5. TheDude
    I am more optomistic. A lot of baseball folks were really high on this guy two years ago. He appeared to have a sophemore slump, then an injury. I think he is a very solid pickup. He should get the majority of PT in LF.
  6. TheDude
    What a fantastic move. Gerut has solid plate discipline and is right at that age when he should break-out. He is far superior to Grieve or Hollandsworth, and he is younger. This isn't a lateral move as people keep saying. Neither Grieve nor Hollandsworth are long-term, while Gerut could be. The only reason people are disappointed is that, for some reason, the expectation was that the team needed more power in LF (which it doesn't). It needs OBP. People have been complaining about a lack of OBP for years. Now you have a 27 year old guy who was highly touted before his injury with great plate discipline, and he might stick around for a few years. Where are all the OBP guys standing up for this trade?
  7. TheDude
    I really don't think the Cubs need to make a move to charge after the wildcard. The reason isn't because there is a need for a move (because there is in LF), but because I don't believe a solid enough impact player is out there to justify the move. And I don't believe in trading for bullpen help. It has been shown time and again in the major leagues that there is a small elite list of "proven" closers who likely aren't going anywhere, and there is a long list of one or two year wonders and enigmas. This team already signed elite bullpen help over the last few years when Remlinger and Hawkins were signed. At the time of their signing, everybody loved the moves, because these guys had been rock solid (perhaps in the top 5) relief guys in MLB for the previous years. Meanwhile some of the finest bullpen guys in the game this year are names only hardcore fans know, and they aren't names most would have predicted to be so dominant (Duchscherer, Carrasco, Cotts, Miller, Betancourt, etc.).
  8. TheDude
    I would love to have Winn, but not right now. Perhaps in the offseason, since he should end up being a free agent.
  9. TheDude
    The team needs to shoot for 90 wins, which would be a 45-30 finish. I'd expect a split of the 24 games left against Houston and St. Louis. That means the team would have to go 33-18 against the rest of the schedule; can the Cubs win every series for those games? Logic and reason suggest it won't happen. Fortunately for all of us, defying logic and reason is what draws us into sports. Go Cubs.
  10. TheDude
    Ichiro wasn't a slap hitter in Japan. He adjusted his style when he came over to be a more effective leadoff hitter in his mind. Likewise, H. Matsui adjusted his style during his "rookie" season in MLB. I can't imagine the talent it takes to alter your play style after 7+ years of being a pro, and still matching the expectation that being in a major market in the MLB brings. I'm actually surprised we have huge success stories like Ichiro and H. Matsui.
  11. TheDude
    I wouldn't. Not because I am a BIG fan of Pie. Not because Dunn wouldn't be worth it. But simply because WHO would play CF or even RF if the Cubs traded Pie? I don't want Patterson back (I think one way or another he is gone, anyways). Johnny Damon in center, and Randy Winn in right? The team has then has speed and OBP at the top and power 3-5. The FA list may be narrow, but it is out there. Let me dream - I am not usually a dreamer :).
  12. TheDude
    where have you been? that's the cubs' philosophy on trading their players. see farnsworth, sosa, cruz, hawkins, etc. People keep saying this but it make no sense to me as a criticism of Hendry. Who sells players high? Teams that are not contenders and want to cash in guys that are doing well for younger players or multiple players that can help them be contenders in future years. Contenders (which the Cubs were when all those players were traded) do not sell high because the players that are going well are going to help them win. Very nice. I was going to post essentially the same thing. For some reason, market location keeps getting removed from trade analysis in most discussions.
  13. TheDude
    Regarding the quality of Dunn's stats, is there someone more stat savvy than I that can find out what percentage of Dunn's strikeouts are looking versus swinging? I'm curious to see how much zone control he has, and whether he expands or not down two strikes, and whether that strikeout looking versus swinging ratio has improved each year he has been in the league. I think looking at that split helps to determine whether or not the guy has plate discipline to draw walks (and corresponding strikeouts on close pitches). I mention this because of Tim's post suggesting maybe Dunn only hits bad pitching. The alternative view to that statement (if the splits show he takes a lot of called 3rd strikes) is that maybe he is a guy who simply usually waits for the pitch he can hit, and hit very, very far. If he is swinging and going down all the time, then maybe Tim's observation holds up.
  14. TheDude
    I would agree with your line of thinking if our beloved team was mid-to-low market. Your assessment of whether to trade the farm for Dunn works only with market consideration IMO. But in Chicago, with a 100+ million budget, very few of those farm kids are ever going to break into the bigs and get a full-time job. That is the big market syndrome, and in the last 4 years the Cubs have fallen victim to it when it comes to position players. Therefore, I say the Cubs stick to a regiment of pitching youth dominance and big league hitters, with only the top prospect for a postion-need breaking through (ala CP two years ago). If a top prospect is blocked by a guy the Cubs want locked up for years and years, move him to get Dunn now. My two cents.
  15. TheDude
    Why do you think that? Dusty never plays the kids, why would he allow his hand to be forced now? That a little unfair. The pitching staff is littered with youth and/or inexperience, and he has had no problem going with them. I have never been able to understand why Dusty can throw the pitching prospects in the fire, but ween the hitting prospects so slowly they lose rhythm. He'd allow his hand to be forced if he wants to keep his job. Baker has insisted on doing it his way, which has led to the lowest OBP out of the top 2 spots in the lineup in the majors. And now the team is sinking fast, when 8 days ago they almost took the wild card lead.
  16. TheDude
    I would prefer to see Cedeno in there, but I think Dusty holds on to a shred of 'his guys': While Lee is out: 1. Hairston 2B 2. Perez SS 3. Walker 1B 4. Ramirez 3B 5. Burnitz RF 6. Murton LF 7. Barrett C 8. Greenberg CF When Lee returns, Greenberg gets sent back down or benched: 1. Hairston CF 2. Perez SS 3. Lee 1B 4. Ramirez 3B 5. Burnitz RF 6. Walker 2B 7. Murton LF 8. Barrett C
  17. TheDude
    Ronnie refused to give out the player of the game award, instead giving it to Pat. Ha ha. He wouldn't award anybody.
  18. TheDude
    Nope. Feel free to blame many things on Baker, but Patterson isn't one of them. Patterson's problem is Patterson. He hasn't listened effectively to any coach, and hasn't made many positive adjustments in 2 years. Sure there is this clash of want between Baker and Patterson regarding where he hits in the lineup, but that falls on Patterson's shoulders. It is irritating to hear a player as young as he, without the credentials, staking his claim to a particular spot in the lineup. It further shows he does not listen.
  19. TheDude
    Sorry but I just don't believe this. Maybe fans can feel better about the losses knowing that some effort to allow the future has taken place, but to state as fact that the team would have more wins just by replacing professional bench players with farm callups is very far-fetched.
  20. TheDude
    I normally defend Dusty Baker, because too often the criticism comes too quickly or without thought beyond today. But right now I am pretty peeved myself. I feel like Dusty is more interested in protecting his reputation among the players than in winning each game. Right now, I don't care if Perez gets pissed for losing his starting job. He played his way into it in April, and has now played his way out of it. But Dusty Baker refuses to acknowledge that Perez's hot streak was over, 6 weeks ago at least. None of the kids except the pitchers are gaining any confidence, because they basically get one or two shots to prove themselves and then their done. Also, I don't agree with the comparison to Atlanta. They don't have the same budget and have no alternative but to turn to kids. It is a little far-fetched to give their management too much credit when their backs were up against the wall. The one lone credit is that some bench nobody isn't getting the majority of PT over the kid. But it isn't like those kids are lighting up the scoreboard. Langerhans and Johnson have average to below average numbers for corner OFs (about the same as Dubois actually - just drawing more walks). Only Betemit and Orr have been better than expected.
  21. TheDude
    Ugh - the least the writer could have done was take a good trade proposal! I have nothing against Hoops, but I dislike that trade idea immensely.
  22. TheDude
    I think the Cubs would be overpaying in the Nixon deal without a minor leaguer coming back. I don't think the Cubs are even looking for a starting pitcher. Come playoff time, if they ever make it, they have three (sometimes) number ones, then Maddux. You don't need 5 starters in the playoffs.
  23. TheDude
    I'm not certain Hendry is waiting. IMO, it is likely other trading partners who are waiting, trying to get the best deal. Why rush a bad deal?
  24. TheDude
    I could see that happening. Huff's not exactly "heating up" right now, but he has a modest 3 game hitting streak, so maybe he is turning it around a bit.
  25. TheDude
    For my money, the Cubs have a shot at building a well-rounded team next year. The pitching depth stocked with youth. I take all the risk with a staff stocked with youth, except perhaps Maddux and a veteran closer. The team has two solid corner infielders that should fill the 3-hole and 5-hole for years. Therefore, the big money acquisition should be alloted through trade to get a 4-hole left-handed corner outfield stud to plop inbetween the two right-handed corner infielders. A guy worth $10 mil or more. I welcome Dunn if the Cubs can pull it off (like anybody else fits that profile ;)). The next big allotment of money goes to a 2B and SS combo with OBP and defense as top priorities, speed a welcomed 3rd attribute. I welcome Hairston back as an option. This establishes a lineup that is built to either manifacture or power as the situation arises. 3-4-5 are then capable of 100 HRs as a lower threshold expectation. The other corner outfielder can be a mid-tier guy. I don't mind bringing Burnitz back, or someone of his calibur. My preference would be more for contact hitting gaps driver with speed over the mid-power with lower average guy.
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