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TheDude

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  1. TheDude
    Of the one's that are eligble for FA, they all do. The going rate for most back-up catchers eligble for FA is 800k-1.2 million. Blanco is regarded very highly as one of the best back-ups in baseball, clearly for his defense, game calling, and teaching ability. He's probably not worth 2.5, but I don't think it's a stretch to say another team would have paid 3.0 for his services for two years. $3.0 mil per year or total? I highly doubt he'd have gotten that per year. I could see $1.5 mil per year, maybe $2.0 mil. I think Blanco would have gotten minimum 1.5 per year for two years from other teams around the league. He probably would have gotten the same contract the Cubs gave him from any other large market team that already projects high in total team offense (Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox) going into 2007.
  2. TheDude
    Apparently. Jennings is coming off a good season, and has historically been held down by Coors field. Meche plays half his games in a huge pitcher's haven and sucks away from Safeco, and even worse he can't throw strikes(which wouldn't matter what park you're in). Jennings home/away splits are no more different than any other pitcher in baseball. This is large overstatement. So the entire hair-splitting difference between two more or less average pitchers is home/away splits? And Hendry deserves praise for considering one and being trashed for the other? It seems an extreme position.
  3. TheDude
    You're talking about a difference of 2 million dollars to the 2007 team salary for those two players. Blanco and DeRosa were each overpaid by about a million. Izturis is also overpaid by about 2 million. That's 4 million and 3 roster spots. Even if you plug a back-up catcher and two unproven IF from the farm system, thus increasing the freed money to 9 million, that doesn't make much difference in the grand scheme, because now you're banking on 3 unproven players with minimal MLB experience that will account for about 1000 ABs for your team in 2007. It's not realistic to think Hendry was going with all big money contracts and slots from the farm system around it, because the Cubs don't have the farm system to support this. This is an excellent plan if you have talent like Wright and Reyes in your farm system. Not so much when you're talking Theriot and Cedeno.
  4. TheDude
    Of the one's that are eligble for FA, they all do. The going rate for most back-up catchers eligble for FA is 800k-1.2 million. Blanco is regarded very highly as one of the best back-ups in baseball, clearly for his defense, game calling, and teaching ability. He's probably not worth 2.5, but I don't think it's a stretch to say another team would have paid 3.0 for his services for two years.
  5. TheDude
    Here the probelm: with this attitude, the Cubs will sign nobody. Every player in the FA market that is tier 1 or tier 2 will have multiple suitors to pay the market value. All of them. The tier 2 class of FAs in pitching is generally regarded as Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, and Randy Wolf. Each one of these guys witll get 3 or 4 years and 20-40 million. Tier 2 FAs in reality translates to average talent. League average pitching talent dictates this kind of money. Meche is average, regardless of people's claims around here that he is below average. His numbers point to league average, with two down years in his three-year splits. I just don't understand why people on this board refuse to accept the FA market for what it is. If the Cubs don't 'jump at the chance' on FAs at the market value, the 2007 roster is going to be filled with AAA players. To get over this hump people must accept that pitchers with career ERA around 4.50, between the ages of 28-32, are going to make minimum 7 million a year, and quite possibly a lot more, and they are going to get that rate for minimum 3 years.
  6. TheDude
    I don't think they are looking at Drew either-in my opinion, it seems to be Soriano or bust now. I have read a few articles adding the Cubs to the Drew sweepstakes. I think it is mostly writer speculation based on need/fit analysis, and not word from the organization though.
  7. TheDude
    You trash Meche and advocate Jennings? Did I miss something here?
  8. TheDude
    I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason. Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better. 1 year, $5m, great. 2/12, okay 3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely. Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it. Goony, do you think any average talent under-30 pitcher in this market is going to get less than 3 years? I just don't see the 1-2 year approach as even an option, for any team. If you're average and under 30, you're looking at 3/21 to start negotiations.
  9. TheDude
    That's a steep price for defense, I agree. I like having Blanco on the team if the offense is upgraded with a major bat as anticipated. You can hide Blanco's bat if he gets Zambrano a Cy Young as his personal catcher.
  10. TheDude
    Pierre 2006: .292\.330\.388\.718 Pierre Career: 303\.350\.377\.727 pierre 3-year split: .298\.343\.383\.726 Lugo 2006: .278\.341\.421\.762 Lugo Career: .277\.340\.402\.742 Lugo 3-year split: .284\.348\.405\.753 It doesn't really matter which cross-section you take, Lugo is the better player across the board. Lugo's 2005 and 2006 also look a lot nicer than Pierre's. It is sub-.800 OPS in CF, but it does represent an respectable upgrade over Pierre. I'd rather have Drew or even Wells, but I won't be disappointed with a creative approach, such as Lugo.
  11. TheDude
    Lee won't be productive at Wrigley. The only reason I think Westbrook can be is that he doesn't give up flyballs. Hence the hits per 9 is less worrisome. Park factors are minor considerations. Lee could very well be successful in Wrigley. I'd be happy to have either pitcher. I like Lee more for his financial impact.
  12. TheDude
    I would really like to see the acceptable fans' list. From what I can tell, this board has narrowed Hendry's acceptable signing list to JD Drew and everybody else is subpar or a waste of money.
  13. TheDude
    I highly doubt Hendry will take advantage of his [expletive] signings. Thanks for that brilliant insight.
  14. TheDude
    The market was in place. Hendry jumped on it very early last year (and the year before) and now has commodities for the effort. GMs understand the marketplace when they make deals, even if the market isn't built on true quality (see Carlos Lee). The middle-relief set-up man market is catching up to the closers market because closers have been tenuous the past few years, and numerous set-up men have had to step-up and and fill the hole. Any set-up guy that gets traded for a starter this offseason is probably viewed as a potential closer, and not just a set-up guy. Closers were making 10 million even two years ago, when set-up guys were making 2 million. Now set-up guys are up to 4 million, and that price will rise still over the next few years.
  15. TheDude
    If Hendry keeps paying the same dollar per production as he's paying here, the team won't be getting much better. 4 million for .800+ OPS out of middle infielder improves the team. But we're just going to go in circles on this point, because all you see is 2004 DeRosa in 300 ABs and not 2006 DeRosa in 500 ABs.
  16. TheDude
    Because fans realize the team is on a budget. Every dollar spent on mediocrity is a dollar that can't be spent on good players. All teams not owned by Steinbrenner have mediocrity. This guy could be better than mediocre, as was the case in 2006.
  17. TheDude
    Actually I wasn't comparing this to Drew at all. I was merely suggesting that if used as a true platoon, nothing more nothing less, the Cubs could get decent production from RF for a combined $9.67M. Sorry, somebody else interjected Drew, and I just used his name as the representative of 10+ million RF production available.
  18. TheDude
    The only answer I can think of is that Lugo and Durham will both cost 9+ million, and Hendry is not looking to spend that much on a 2B, with needs at SP and CF.
  19. TheDude
    If I was a betting man, I would say that DeRosa has been signed as our 2B instead of Jones' platoon partner. I'm fairly certain that you're right. I don't see Hendry being much of a guy that would platoon players on a daily basis. That's not Hendry's job. That Piniella's job.
  20. TheDude
    Why pay a guy 4 million dollars per year to be a partime player. Even if he does platoon it makes Hendry twice the bad GM, first for giving Jones the money he did and then for giving Derosa the money. Put those two salaries together and add Rusch's slaray and the Cubs could probably get close to signing Drew. Hoops analysis was to suggest you can get better than Drew's production out of a platoon for less money than what it would take to get Drew. I think DeRosa will get some time this way, but he will probably get another 200 ABs in a super-utility role, primarily at 2B.
  21. TheDude
    You really think GMs in this league are that naive about their own business? I don't.
  22. TheDude
    That is contrasry to news reports, which indicate Soriano was the number one target coming out of the meetings. I can't reading anything that mentioned to DeRosa for the Cubs, other than sports writers speculation.
  23. TheDude
    This crap again? That's exactly what I was thinking after 12 pages of this thread :).
  24. TheDude
    I still want to wait and see the rest of the moves before judging this one in its entirety. Durham is 35 coming off a career year at 7 million, which means he is going to cash in probably around 9-10 million a year. Durham is clearly the better option, but his money likely is cost prohibitive for the real target, whether its Soriano or any of a number of different pitchers. I want to see how the OF and SP is settled before even considering the latest round of chicken little.
  25. TheDude
    There were numerous articles over the last few weeks predicting DeRosa would get a deal like this from whatever team he would sign for, so I don't think it's very accurate to think the Cubs were the only team interested, bidding against themselves. I don't recall any such articles, do you have a link to any of them? Just run a search on the internet. Here's the one I remember from earlier this week. I can't begin to recall the specific news paper web sites from the daily blogosphere bouncing. Olney earlier in the week
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