Jason Ross

The bar is so incredibly low. Baltimore's uniforms are black with what feels like Times New Roman "BALTIMORE" on them...and the only interesting design element is inside the damn thing! What are you doing, Nike?

Gambler's Fallacy requires the event to be random. Patrick Wisdom's talent level is not random. While any PA is anecdotal, there's a reason certain statistics are more predictive and can give us insight as to how a player will likely play. The reality is, on any given day, Patrick Wisdom is likely to play to his talent level...and his talent level is that of an organizational up/down player who's capable of compiling statistics given sample sizes, but generally, isn't very good. I didn't mean to make a direct 1:1 comparison here from Wisdom to Gambler's Fallacy, only to highlight the idea that "riding the hot hand" requires the team to understand that you only win when you predict when a player will no longer be hot before they go cold. With Wisdom, it's more likely any given day, he plays to his true talent level than to be "hot".

Ugh, how I despise that Wrigleyville nonsense we wear on Fridays.

It's like a damn reunion.

If the Cubs can get Curtis Mead for Marcus Stroman, I would expect the Cubs would gladly pack Stroman's bags for him, deliver him to the airport in the nicest luxury vehicle available, and fly him first class on a boutique airline to Tampa Bay. Curtis Mead is a top-30 prospect in all of baseball with plus game power who's just struggled a bit initially in Durham. I frankly cannot imagine the Cubs getting a better return than Curtis Mead.

That is absolutely fantastic and I'm glad some things never change. It was a surprise to me when I first saw him elevate and become kind of a big Twins thing, because to me, he was always the dude who posted on the MLB PSD forum and who I played online OOTP with. On a Twins note; super excellent uniform update ya'll had. I feel like teams across sports are aiming to do exactly what you did this year; create a sort of...fauxback that looks like it fits in the overall identity without feeling overly minimalistic. Only thing I wish is that they kept the Minne and Paul logo on the sleeve (as I believe they ditched that).

I like the Twins. Are you familiar with Brandon Warne? I know he covers the Twins. He used to post with us back on PSD a while back. He was a nice guy. The Brewers...less so, but now I live in Lexington, KY, and there's zero Brewers representation around here (zero Reds representation when they aren't good too) so they've kind of fallen off my "I don't like this team" radar. I actually put up the goodbye PSD post yesterday, and even before I remembered I already had an account here, had recommended NSBB as a possible new-home! And I'll be glad to let everyone know it's a great community. I know we're all a little sad our home's for sale but this already feels real nice and welcoming and the dedicated crew we had definitely loves bickering and talking about Cub baseball.

Glad to be here! It's been nothing but welcoming, site is easy to navigate, and nostalgic with seeing old friends.

VBulletin, yep! And a completely absent owner/IT group. We've basically been running the site with a handful (like 5-6) active moderators and not a single way to fix anything on the backend or change anything. There was once the site went all the way down, and thankfully after a day or so, someone was able to find someone to get us back online. I'm shocked anyone even told us we were shutting down; the 24th feels weird with timing (TDL is such a boon to site traffic) but I always figured we'd try to sign on one day and realize it was just dead and broken forever without warning, and frankly I'm not sure which I prefer now haha. Glad to see this place runs quite opposite to PSD in these regards!

PCA's hit tool will be what carries him at the MLB, but his hyper aggressiveness at the plate will likely deflate the OBP/walk rates. Even as he matures there, he's a free swinger, and MLB pitchers will exploit this. His peak, best case scenario for me is something like a .300/.330/.450 type, with ~5-6% walk rate, a K% in the 20-22%, and 20 HR's, 30 doubles, 5 triples and 30 stolen bases with +10 DRS in CF. That's crazy valuable, and I know that, but we're going "peak" here. I think his most likely outcome is in the Kevin Kiermaier mold; a 2.5-3.5 fWAR guy in CF who can hit 15 home runs, adds value on the bases and the field first and foremost, and sits between a 90-110 wRC+ hitter most seasons as his hyper aggressive nature at the plate takes BABIP turns up and down.

I would doubt he holds much trade value currently for a trade or move any needles other than a last second throw in. I think his story is really cool; he's made himself interesting recently, but the 174 PA's he has this year as a ~24 year old in AA are the first 170 PA's he's had that are interesting since 2019. He'll need to be on a 40-man next year or he'll be Rule V eligible as well.

I think the Rays would be interested in Marcus Stroman...especially if the Cubs eat money on the way over (which they 100% should). If there's a hole in the Rays at the MLB level, it's their pitching. Their xFIP over the last 30 days is tops in the majors which suggests regression to the mean should be coming, but they're the 4th worst SP ERA in the last 30, and only 10th in FIP. Why the big distinction in ERA vs xFIP; tons of HR's given up...and I'm not sure the xFIP is being fair; the Rays probably had negative regression coming there and they're finding it. Their rotation is buoyed by the generally good, but not elite Zach Eflin, excellent Shane McClannahan, and Tyler Glasnow, but past that it's thin. Bradley is an excellent prospect but hasn't been great, Criswell is freshly returned. Overall the Rays have been sinking over their last 45 games or so. With the Yankees and the Red Sox below them, I think they're in a unique situation to buy a player like Stroman; they're looking at a possible division win, and they're very strong defensively; they lead the league in SS DRS, they're 11th in 2b DRS, and 12th in 3b DRS; so they have a strong infield to support Stroman.

Riding the hot hand is a practice in gambling. Degenerate gamblers will ride the hot hand into the ground, believing that a good run in the dice/cards, which is attributable mostly to anecdotal events, will continue and that the best thing to do is go until you're no "hot" any more. What does that result in? A net-negative balance. Patrick Wisdom is more likely every game to not be "hot" any more, than he is to be hot, because Patrick Wisdom is bad. You have to know when to put the dice down.

I'd trust the Cubs to trade with Tampa Bay. When you trade with Tampa Bay, I think you have to recognize they know their minor league system incredibly well, and have a very strong developmental team, but also a very strong analytical and modeling team. The Cubs, especially over the last few years, have done a pretty wonderful job picking prospects from systems. The Rays are incredibly deep, the Cubs are good at modeling data and prospect picking...I think we'd do fine. Baltimore is my favorite team to trade with, but Tampa Bay is right up there as probably my second favorite. Some teams cannot handle Tampa in trades, but I'd expect the Cubs to do well.

As a former moderator on PSD, you wouldn't need to buy PSD as I'm fairly certain the ownership of that website would have been glad to give someone money to take that system off their hands. The backend of that site was archaic. (It was so bad that my initial reaction to learning the IT for the website posted our closure date that I believed it had to be a scam because we haven't heard from them in literal years)

Starting Barnhart over Amaya right now is egregious; the Cubs are a team who really should be playing the young players over the crappy older ones (both for the future and now; their best bet to survive until July 31st is likely gambling that the young players are simply better). Not starting Wisdom is fine; Wisdom is bad, regardless of the anecdotal HR he recently hit. Miles Mastrobuoni is bad, too, so I'm not trying to say starting Mastrobuoni is the right choice, either. I'm just not sure it makes any difference. If there's an argument to be made, however, Mastrobuoni has shown some level of competence at 3b (+1 DRS in 100 innings) and Patrick Wisdom is real bad over there (-5 DRS in under 400 innings, -9 DRS in his last 1100). With a groundball heavy pitcher, if both are bad, go with the one who will field the ground ball.

I'm a teacher; there's nothing to do but ramble on about some middle relief prospect that only I care about on a Tuesday at 11:30am in the summer. Had to find somewhere to prattle on.

Here's the amazing thing: somehow there's 10% of the MLB slower than Trey Mancini. Let that sink in.

Thanks for the welcome! I had been posting there since 2006, so it's a little of a sad day on that end! Good crew should migrate over, thanks for having us.

Funnily enough, I keep in touch with Yags on discord! I remember you, Hrubes, good to see old faces. I actually expected Sanders to go over, glad it wasn't much. He had pre-draft 1st round helium and is probably better than the average 4th rounder (most of these guys don't have the upside Sanders does). That said, glad to have Sanders. The stuff is #3 stuff but the consistency is bad. Cubs lab has a lot of these types roaming around and have seen success. I'd rather he be in the Cubs system than the others.

Now you're speaking my language.

To add to it, I think with Mervis we should understand why he's coming around a little older than others; this isn't a prospect who necessarily spent years struggling in the MiLB only to pop, but due to baseball circumstances (not just a regular position switch but from pitcher to position player) and worldly circumstances (did not have a 2020 season due to the pandemic), Mervis' age of 25 is a bit different than other 25 year old prospects. I'm more forgiving in these situations. He's 25, but has had a very odd route to the MLB. He's simultaneously a bit old...while also speed running the MiLB in many ways.

Can confirm; he looked awesome today. When the fastball command is on, Ben Brown can be as good as any RHP in the MiLB. More consistency is needed, but there's a special arm there. I think when they're both on, Horton probably edges out Brown, but Brown's right there with him.

Brady looked really good today. Glad to see him continue to be interesting. Ben Brown looks real solid today so far. We'll see how the game finishes, but punched out 2 in the first.

On the Matt Mervis topic; the Cubs should be calling up Matt Mervis, and they're doing themselves a disservice by not, long term for sure, and possibly in the short. We all want to win games; but is Trey Mancini helping the Cubs win games? He's got a >80wRC+ on the season and his baseball savant page is icy blue across the board; few MLB players have worse batted ball data than Mancini. There doesn't seem to be any reason to suggest a turn around is coming, and he's been worth -.7 fWAR this year. Only 4 qualified players have been worth less than Mancini this season. That's...less than optimal. Yes, Mervis was not worth much in his 99 PA run. But 99 PA's is just a very small sample size; barely enough for most statistics to even stabilize let alone to be worthwhile to determine his long term future. There were many negatives; he really struggled (especially initially) with swing decisions and the LA was real bad. But the exit velocity data was good, and I think there was some bad luck, especially at the end, working against him. This is a player clearly too good for AAA; he's got a 153 wRC+ since returning and just crushing the league. Mervis really needs to learn swing decisions at the MLB level, and if he needs to make some "very small" mechanical changes, that feels very doable at the MLB level as well; it's not like we're talking a swing rebuild. So is Mervis any worse than Mancini? Maybe marginally, but his last 74 PA's have been 57wRC+ bad. That's so bad that it's virtually the same amount of bad Mervis was in 99 PA's (46 wRC+). But Mervis has upside, and I don't think Mancini does. So short term, you're probably better off gambling that Mervis has figured something out and will hit. Long term, you need to give him as many PA's between today and the end of the year so you don't go into 2024 with more Matt Mervis questions. Worst case? He bombs, but then you know. Not knowing would be the worst case scenario. It's two weeks, but the Cubs should make the change. It's better long term, it's arguably better short term. Just do it.