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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Canario, outside of a single run in AA-AAA, has been a strikeout machine and reverted back into one last year. You can have good feeling about him, but nothing in his profile suggests he's such a good player the Cubs should be forcing his way through. He might be useful, but the reality is, he's more than likely not going to be a worthwhile starting player (as most prospects are). His profile is riskier than most. "Jag around with Brown"? I mean, he made it to Iowa very quickly last year, his age 23, then got hurt. Thaw, you're doing that thing you do where you just randomly get overly impatient on a prospect. Ben Brown just barely turned 24. Stop acting like he's 29. If he doesn't improve his control in AAA, he's not an MLB arm regardless.
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Sorry, when you added him in with those names (trading from the young pitchers like Brown and Wesneski, who are likely going to be in the BP at best) I assumed you meant for him to be in the BP with those names. Manaea opted out of $12.5m and probably thinks he can get more. He's not a definitive better player moving forward over Wicks, so spending at least $12.5m over Wicks (for what is likely going to be 2+ years) is a bad use of budget for the Cubs who only have $70m and need to upgrade a bunch of places. Upgrading marginally on their 5th SP seems like a bad usage of that money and I'm not sure he's any better than Jordan Wicks moving forward.
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The question isn't "can the Cubs fit Manaea in the bullpen?" it's "why would 32 year old Sean Manaea accept he's only a BP arm for the rest of his career if he had that much personal success with his new pitch?". If Manaea wants to be a left handed pitcher in the Cubs bullpen, mixed in with a handful of other guys who can eat up some extra starts, I'm all for it. What I think is likely is that someone out there is going to give him a much more clear cut path to winning a rotational spot and he's going to look to rebuild his career. And I think the Cubs situation is that where they can't offer that to him (and shouldn't be).
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With the Cubs mantra of "no bidding wars", I think any plan the Cubs have that expressly rely on a single player outside of the very special case of Ohtani is probably unlikely. There are other big spenders who need SP and Imanaga's price is likely well above early projections (probably looking $100-$120m at this stage). If the Cubs are playing the "wait and see" market on the hitters, they'll likely be doing so with the SP's (who's a deeper group) as well. Which isn't to say they can't possibly win Imanaga, only that they don't seem very likely to be waiting on any one in particular.
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That doesn't feel like "change", though. That feels like the status quo. And probably a pretty bad Cub team. The Cubs don't need to play every prospect they have simply because they're prospects. And he Cubs have plenty of talent on the roster that they shouldn't be throwing away a full season on "play the kids" entirely. They can play some young players but they don't need to play them all. That's sounds like the 2021-2022 Cubs of "we'll just trade some guys at the deadline" stuff. The Cubs shouldn't feel forced to play players like Canario simply because they're young.
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Was just thinking about this Zumach post. There's many Cub teams and many scenarios where I'd be into Manaea, I just don't think this Cubs team is the Cub team he's a good fit for. He just hasn't been particularly great over his last two seasons, and I just don't think the Cubs are in the position to give him the shot he probably thinks he deserves. The Cubs would likely have to jettison Wicks in a trade for me to have any real interest in Manaea and it feels unlikely that kind of a trade is being discussed at this time (especially considering that the names being talked about seem to include Brown and Wesneski which already strike at our pitching depth). The Cubs feel too good to be taking a risk on Manaea in the rotation spot they actually have open (which is, for all intents and purposes, is an opening for what will become the second best pitcher in the rotation). And he probably should be able to find some team willing to give him a real chance to win a rotational spot Opening Day. So while I respect the hell out of Zumach, I think he's getting the kind of love he probably deserves from Cubdom right now.
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Well, I think the discourse around that is tied directly to Pete Crow-Armstrong as well. As long as the Cubs still have PCA in the system and are reportedly pursuing Bellinger, the discussion of Bellinger as a 1b is important. It's likely that the Cubs would move Bellinger to 1b for PCA in the event they're both here, as soon as June. PCA is nearly ready now, and regardless of how high you are on his bat, his defense and speed will carry the day for him in almost any situation to being somewhat useful. Maybe this would change with a PCA trade, but that doesn't appear to be on the horizon. The Cubs have spoken highly of "not blocking" prospects and have yet to make a single trade of consequence of a prospect, so while nothing is non-zero, it doesn't seem likely they'll go ahead and trade their industry consensus-top prospect who's quite close to MLB ready.
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I would say someone you plan on playing first base 125+ games who is "good" would also be worth $25m or so a season. With that said, I think what makes a good 1b and a good CF are different, as well, and where I'd have some questions is just how good of a bat Cody Bellinger would have going forward because I think a good 1b requires more of the bat than a good CF.
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Video: Cubs Top Prospects: Michael Arias
Jason Ross replied to Aram Leighton's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Woah! Graced by Aram! Speaking to what Bertz said...I'm one of those people who uses your Twitter as a source in my own articles fairly regularly. -
Yeah, the way Rogers and Sharma have suggested the trades is what's really interested me. It feels like they're hearing something more than just spitballing/speculation. It'd be nice to hear something more concrete on the returning names, but hopefully we'll know that sooner rather than later.
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I'd be curious as to what trade he could be alluding to, here. I feel like Cleveland would prefer hitters over arms in a Bieber trade, so I wonder what they're looking at, and how close something is to getting done. It almost sounded like he suggested a trade for a hitter with the way he worded how every team needs pitching but the Cubs can deal from that stockpile.
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Right. The point I'm not making is what I'd like to see, but going back to my original comment of why people are concerned with his ability to play CF long term and his batted ball data. People have concerns about fit, about Bellinger and the like. It isn't to say these will happen, only that those fears/worries aren't unwarrented. As you said, no contract is without risk. I think people are just pointing out the risk. On Bieber, the Cubs can still get Naylor without Bieber, so I'm not super worried even if he goes to LAD. They can still grab Imanaga, Snell, Montgomery...etc. I like him as a bit of a bounceback, But I'm not so desperate for him that I'd be too bummed to see him head elsewhere. With that said, it is just another option off the board that the Cubs let go. At some point the Cubs do need to get someone in.
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The one thing I'd be jealous of is having the infrastructure of being capable of trading for luxury (and it's not that the Dodgers can't use Clase, only that trading for a closer like Clase feels like luxury). I really don't want the Cubs to spend on Clase because they have other things to fix. And I think Bieber is an interesting data point for next season, but I won't miss him either. It's that ability to send a few good prospects for Clase and say "Yeah, we have everything else, and we have the capital, so let's go get this closer".
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I think it's pretty unlikely the Cubs will trade PCA regardless of what they do with Bellinger. We'll see, but there hasn't been a single rumor concerning the Cubs moving PCA. Maybe it's something really have kept quiet, but there doesn't seem to be much out there to make you think they'll deal them. This is a team who talks consistently about not blocking prospects, loves defense (especially at premium positions) and loves players who run the bases well. I don't want to make it seem impossible, but it seems like a false equivilency to say that the options are "sign Bellinger and trade PCA" or "sign Montgomery". I think the Cubs are far more likely to sign Bellinger and keep PCA by having Bellinger take CF for 1-3 months and then moving him to 1b than trading PCA for an arm. We'll see what they do. I have no idea what they're going to do. And that's not saying it's not a valid option or the Cubs shouldn't consider trading him, only that I think the Cubs are very unlikely to do so. But I think there are more options than the ones you laid out, and why people are concerned about Bellinger, his position and his batted ball.
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Of course there's risk with any contract. With Bellinger him playing CF though is a primary reason you'd be interested in him for 8 years. His bat at 1b is iffy with his batted ball. So you're either talking the risk of him sticking at a premium position or the risk with his batted ball data and offense at a less premium position. It doesnt mean you dont sign him, but it does mean people are going to rightly point our these factors, too.
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I would say it's fair to question Bellinger long term in CF. He's 28, and we know defense does tend to fall off around the early 30s traditionally. It doesn't mean he will, but anyone questioning how long he will last there is pretty fair. It isn't like Bellinger hasn't had his fair share of injuries, even if they haven't been leg injuries, which likely adds questions here on his durability.
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Bobby Hill for the Cubs. Bellhorn for the Dodgers, for me. Both finished .3%. Not awful.
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This helped me greatly on Immaculate Grid today. Though...not the obvious box.
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Garver to Mariners. 2/$24m
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His xData is really good. His ISO got better from 2022 (when he had a 130 wRC+) and his xWOBA remained a very good .350. Awesome K:BB. His LA got a really big bump, too. His BABIP dropped .50 points, and his hard hit numbers got worse, however. His Savant page in 2022 was impressive as hell, and while there's plenty of excellent stuff in his 2023, there were those issues and his Savant page looks worse too. There's probably a small tweak needed to get him back to where he was. But there's also plenty underlying where you can see Vinnie P putting up 130 wRC+ with excellent plate approaches for the next 5 years of control. If you feel like you're capable of making that tweak, there aren't many DH/1b who have the combination of approach, power, and control that Pasquatino offers.
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Positives of living in Lexington: Bourbon is readily available. Negatives of living in Lexington: Kentucky is still Kentucky.
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Yeah, real bummer with how Trace does things. But it's only 90 days between purchases on specific brands. So if they drop Blantons on Thursday and Taylor Friday, you can get one of each. The rub is getting the right days! Each distillery has a few different rules. Make sure if you're doing Trace that you get tickets early. It's free but they fill up (so people can get drops). Sadly Turkey probably won't be up and running yet...they're recovering from a fire. Loved Woodford, really good tour.
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Speaking as both a Kentuckian and someone who was just at Trace yesterday...EH Taylor is a fine choice (sadly, missed their recent EH Taylor drop by one day. Yesterday was a Blanton's day...which...is good but I'd rather the Taylor, myself).
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto to...the Dodgers? Really? Again?
Jason Ross replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't think he'll spend $200m on Bellinger, either. But I don't really know any team is going to spend $200m on Bellinger. Boras may want that, but that doesn't mean someone will. We aren't the only people concerned with the batted ball data, and if we know, teams know. I think the Cubs would spend $160m on Bellinger. And I think that's on the table as we wait this out.
