Jason Ross

Right. But if the debate is to bring Canario up to be someone who comes off the bench, we know that BP arms stuff+ goes up especially as the game goes along and you're in tight situations you'll be facing better and better stuff. Realistically, how many starts is Alexander Canario going to get over Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the OF? Is he going to jump Christopher Morel/Patrick Wisdom as well at DH? The premise of a lot of this is that he'd be a power bat on the bench. His swing and miss is already atrocious in AAA, even when he's playing well. Add in that bat to ball skills matter more and more when we look at stuff increasing and I just don'tthink there's a good scenario for Canario, personally, to see him succeed. Not yet, anyways. None of this is to suggest he's an incapable prospect, but his swing and miss right now is such a red flag that I cannot see much of a reason to think he's going to be anything productive as a guy you'd trust in those kinds of situations off the bench. The overall point isn't that bat to ball is the end all be all, but I think Canario's bat to ball right now is so poor that his bat speed wouldn't make up for the situations he'd be asked to hit in. If Canario's swing decisions and contact rate from last year were translating, even in his strong run as of today, I'd sing a different tune. And I don't think it's impossible to see Canario get back to that down the road. But as of now, I have little confidence that he'd come up and be anything more than a strikeout machine printing K's. There's some real rust there and even when he's hitting for power, he's striking out. He's got 23 strikeouts over his last 61 PA's and the last time he didn't strike out at least once in a game was August 3rd, while striking out at least twice in half of those games.

Wait, Thomas Hatch is in the MLB? Next someone will tell me something crazy like Jay Jackson plays in Toronto or something.

Wait, Rob Zaztryzny is in the MLB?

Yeah, like I said, I can see the argument. I'm not sure I'm on that side of the argument (though it has merits). Mostly showing the bat-to-ball skills here remain...questionable regardless of the good results. I'm more of a "process" person when I scout MiLB talents (where and when possible) and less of a "result" driven person (though sometimes it's just a necessity). The process behind Canario is going about his impressive results scare me. Though I could see an argument as to why he might have a handful of useful PA's in him between now and the playoffs at the MLB level as well.

My issue remains that the swing and the miss is just massive. The ISO is fun, the power is fun, the OPS/wRC+ is good, but none of these correlate to MLB success like contact ability (which remains the best indicator of next level success). There was a really cool study done recently (tweet embedded below) that that talks about bat speed, bat to ball, and swing decisions and how they relate to dealing with better and better stuff. As you can see from the chart, bat to ball matters more and more when we get to a point of elite stuff. Canario, even over his strong run, has a whopping 33.8% K%. His bat to ball skills right now, aren't there. Is it rust from the injury? Is it a step backwards in development? I don't have an answer to either question, but I do know that he's probably going to struggle until that goes back to what we saw in 2022 (if it ever does).

Brown has been on the shelf with a lat issue, so he's off the table. Wicks was scratched from his start today with no injury, likely he's up tomorrow.

Man, maybe I should start talking horsefeathers about Michael McAvene and Casey Opitz. HoF here they come!

Of course I horsefeathers talk Canario again and all he does is have 3 hits and a monster home run. Maybe I'm an idiot.

Dude, that's terrible. I run the worst team in Lexington, and we have some guys who I question if they have ever seen a baseball, but they're good guys. I make sure everyone plays. Sucks that happened. Baseball should be fun even if you're out of your depth.

MSBL! Excellent. We were affiliated with MSBL for years (though recently dropped the affiliation to save some money). Still do some tournaments around the midwest.

I run the adult baseball league in my city, and still play. We have a few former D-1 athletes in our league, a few who were drafted, and someone who has 4 service years in the MLB (including pitching in the playoffs). I've been hit with 90+mph before. I wear a c-flap, I have an elbow guard, and a shin pad. Getting hit with baseballs hurts, man. Guys who get hit 20+ times a season with 90+mph are tough dudes. I am not a tough dude.

Yeah, that's a good counter point. I'm still on team "let Canario feast in AAA" but there's an argument for him being a useful platoon bench bat for sure.

For me, it'd be less about the overall line and more about making the adjustments necessary to get the best version of Suzuki. We know he's got a great eye, and he's essentially mirrored last year's line (granted the wRC+ is lower but that's due to league data). 2022: .262/.336/.433 24.7% K%, 9.4% BB%, .171 ISO 2023: .263/.335/.427 23.9% K%, 9.8$ BB%, 164 ISO What's exciting is his more attacking and aggressive nature recently. If he can use his discerning eye in tough counts, but use his considerable ability to hit the baseball (evidenced by his batted ball data) to begin to crush mistake pitches early in the counts and become the best version of Seiya for August and September, I'll consider that a success because that'll really set him up for success next year to not just be a good player, but potentially a borderline very good player. The best version of Suzuki entering the playoffs, as well, would be a huge gain for the Cubs lineup.

Canario is struggling. He's got some big power, but the swing and the miss issues he seemingly remedied last year have come charging back. I'm not writing him off, but I'm not bringing him up right now, either. PCA is a definite yes, and they already have a 4 man shuffling OF in Bellinger-Suzuki-Happ-Tauchman. Canario needs PA's in AAA to make up for missed time. Maybe later in September when Iowa is done, but I want him playing as much as possible right now.

I should horsefeathers talk guys more often. Mervis, Canario and Ed Howard all had baller games tonight on the heels of me calling them cold.

Well, horsefeathers. Score 6, you should win most times.

I've watched a ton of Jordan Wicks over the last two years...partly because I went into draft-day-2021 with a pretty strong "Don't draft Wicks" mantra (in my defense I wanted Sal Frelick to fall, or the Cubs to go with Montgomery, both who would have been winners, but I digress) and I just needed to "get it" because I just didn't draft night. My best thing I can say is this: Jordan Wicks reminds me of Jon Lester in so many ways; the way they act on the mound, the way they attack hitters, the lack of anything that's "overpowering"... I don't think he is Jon Lester and it's pretty unlikely he'll have that type of a career...but Jordan Wicks has that kind of vibe to me. It's super subjective, and I don't like being subjective like that...but Wicks won me over. I have a pretty sneaking suspicion he's going to do that to a lot of people when he gets here.

Cuas. Strikes, maybe?

A 22% K% is pretty good though, especially if we're talking about a high GB% pitcher. I want to be very careful with this, because I'm not saying Wicks=Stroman at all, but Marcus Stroman posted a 20% K% with the Chicago Cubs this year, but because he was really good at using our infield, was having a great season prior to injury. Should we expect Wicks to dip below 22% K% at the MLB, especially initially? Yeah sure, he's entering the league and that's a fair expectation and it's likely to occur. But being a ground ball merchant like Wicks' should be with a fastball (with good vertical movement), a changeup and a curveball can really bring that K% into line. Historically he's always had good control, and we can probably expect most of that to translate. Wicks doesn't need to strike out 9+ to be effective. I'm not saying he's a stud, but there's a guy there. Honestly, I think he's the most underrated arm in the system today. Outside of the changeup nothing stands out, but he's just effective. He's a "sum of all the parts" kind of guy to me. I think people will be surprised when he comes up with how effective he is. I also hesitate to worry about pitch counts. The Cubs are essentially the clubhouse leader in being careful with MiLB arms league wide. I would expect the Cubs to probably have him around an 80-90 pitch watch in his first start or two, and build from there, but I also think Wicks is capable of more and that a decent amount of this is the Cubs MiLB mandate of watching over their arms. I'm not worried about it being a playoff chase right now because the reality is, that's just what it is. I'm worried about the guy I'd trust the most to get the Cubs into the 5th inning in a pretty safe place. It's not Smyly. It's not Killian. Wesneski can't get LHH out. So give me the guy who throws strikes, and gets ground balls and has some upside. It may end up being a damned if you do, damned if you don't regardless, but I'd still go Wicks if I had a pick.

Damn.

Damn, thought that was going to be 2.

Yeah, when he's throwing strikes Palencia is a blast. Just a little more consistency and he'll be a real weapon.

I would, again, disagree that he hasn't been that good and think he's actually looked really great at times, especially over his last few starts. He striking out about a hitter per inning, and his swinging strike has been going up. Over his last 19 IP, he's got a K% of 22%, which is pretty good. The fastball has some really good movement to it (mitigating the velocity a bit) and his changeup is a legit plus-plus pitch. Then add in the high number of GB's for a Cubs defense who is among the very best in baseball when it comes to ground balls, and I think it's a pretty good combination. I'll remain on record; Jordan Wicks is where I'd go if I needed 4 solid innings at the MLB level. I wouldn't count on him to get much more, maybe a 5th, but I wouldn't count on Wesneski, Killian or Smyly to get me more than 4 either. The 6 day rest thing isn't great right now, and I'd buy that being a bit of a speed bump, so I'll concede on that point.

"Barely viable in AAA" is pretty harsh for someone who's striking out just under a hitter per inning, has a GB% nearing 50% and has a HR/FB% under 10.

I would disagree. I like Wesneski still long term, but he simply cannot get LHH right now and has shown it consistently. He needs to develop a LHH out-pitch or he's a BP arm. Killian just isn't an MLB starter, IMO and I don't say that lightly. I really liked him entering last year, but his inability to develop any sort of chase pitch is a pretty decent death knell. The velo returning is nice, but I just don't see it. Wicks has the changeup, he throws strikes, and he'll get ground balls. I don't think he's going to be a revelation at first, but I think he can be a stabilizing force in the sense of I'd trust him a bit more to make it 4 solid innings. I'd order it: 1) Wicks, 2) Wesneski and 3) Killian. I think Wicks is a pretty slept on arm.