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bauermj

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Everything posted by bauermj

  1. bauermj
    How do you figure this is true? The Cubs will be paying the full $20 million if they exercise the option and should have all of that hit their number. Both this article: https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/08/18/hamels-pitching-himself-into-20-million-option-for-2019/ Not an attorney but I believe the author is (Evan Altman?) then the actual language from the CBA itself: http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf starting on page 117 E. Determination of Salary, and continuing to page 120 Option Buyouts I see: (ii) Potential Adjustment to Payroll Notwithstanding subparagraph (b)(i) above, if the Player ultimately does not receive the Option Buyout, then for the Contract Year covered by that option, no portion of the Buyout shall be included in any Club’s final Actual Club Payroll. In addition, any Club whose final Actual Club Payroll in a previous Contract Year had included that Buyout (or a portion thereof) will receive a deduction (in the full amount of the Buyout included in previous Contract Years) in its final Actual Club Payroll in the Contract Year covered by that option.
  2. bauermj
    Does anyone truly know the luxury tax implications of the various options? From what I've gathered: [*]Per the CBA, the $6M 2019 buyout has already been included in Hamel's AAV calculation from '13-'18 for luxury tax purposes [*]If the 2019 option is declined all bets are off for Hamel's 2019+ contract status and luxury tax #; TEX pays $6M buyout [*]If the 2019 option is exercised Hamel's luxury tax # for 2019 should only be $14M. even if the Cubs have to pay all $20M [*]Even if the Cubs declined the option so as to force TEX to pay $6M AND had a gentlemen's agreement for $16M (earning him $22M instead of $20M) it would have negative luxury tax implications when compared to simply exercising the option. On declining the option: I feel like the luxury tax implications and any competitive disadvantages associated with it are worse for the Cubs than simply paying an extra $6M in cash for his services, but perhaps I'm wrong. Not impossible but I would be surprised if Hamel's like the Cubs enough to have them decline the option, thus making him a full fledged Free Agent, while still giving them sole negotiation access. And would the risk of signing him to extra year(s) in the form of a two or three year deal be worth the risk than simply having him at $20M real money & $14M AAV for 2019?
  3. bauermj
    As a follow up to the Anthony Bass decision, it seems CubsProspects had a noteworthy take on it. Very likely end of the road between Mr. Bass & the Cubs: [tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet]
  4. bauermj
    [tweet] [/tweet] This move surprised me. I would have thought Bass was a part of the September discussion, perhaps though not likely 25th man on postseason roster. You wouldn't do this, then add him right back to the 40 man would you? I guess him clearing maybe gives an indication he wouldn't get rule 5 claimed if that comes into play with Bass being a possible 2019 option.
  5. bauermj
    Very quick search & I didn't find exactly what I was thinking of. I will look later but here are a few that are related or perhaps my memory is fuzzy: http://viewfromthebleachers.com/archives/26796 (including: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2IzMTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US) https://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/
  6. bauermj
    Debbie downer 1) Any organization would love to draft 4 years straight: 2+ win, major league regulars. I can't find another MLB team that hit on all 4 of those first rounders (12/13/14/15) with an MLB regular. 2) There was no 1st round (nor 2nd round) pick in 2016 due to signing Free Agents that led to a World Series. Its way too early to discuss the 2017 & 2018 draft classes contributing but the Cubs just handed out the most six figure bonuses to rounds 11-40 in their history. 3) There was a great fangraphs article with chart years ago, showing expected WAR from players drafted after the first round. It was NOT sexy. There will always be a few anecdotal examples of non first round contributors, and the Cubs some candidates themselves from that period (Bote, Underwood, Zastryzny, Norwood, Maples from Hendry) plus some that could emerge (Clifton, Meekes, Zagunis, Vosler, Keegan Thompson, Giambrone, Zac Short, Stinnett, Swarmer, Rucker, Robinson, Hatch). Others used in trades to acquire Major League assets (Godley, Cease, James Farris, Blackburn, Crawford, Tyler Thomas, probably some im forgetting). Show me an organization full of homegrown Round 2-40 players starting on their active roster. 4) Cubs kill it on the international front
  7. bauermj
    I'm terrible with NBA contract knowledge but is this basically like "waiving" Grant for 1.7M instead of his 3.7M owed?
  8. bauermj
    I liked this tweet:
  9. bauermj
    Where did you see Parker signed? No, TBD meaning they are unsigned but potentially could add to the six figure bonus count. None of the guys on that list are college SR so I figure its possible if they sign it would be 100k+. I'm sure it will take more than that for Parker
  10. bauermj
    I don't ever recall a Theo/Jed draft with so many reported Six Figure bonuses in rounds 11+. So far 8 in 2018: RHP Riley Thompson (11 - $200k), LHP Chris Allen (20 - $150k), RHP Cameron Sanders (12 - $125k), HS CF Ezequiel Pagan (13 - $125k), RHP Riley McCauley (14 - $125k), LHP Josh Sawyer (16 - $125k), 1B Tyler Durna (15 - $100k), 3B Jake Slaughter (18 - $100k), TBD (6): RHP Jake Reindl (17), RHP Layne Looney (19), HS OF Julian Boyd (26), RHP Niels Stone (27), HS LHP Mitchell Parker (28), OF Edmond Americaan (35) looked it up 2017: 6 (Lacy, Hecht, Hughes, Remy, Upshaw, Singleton) 2016: 2 (Zinn, Sweeney) 2015: 0? 2014: 2 (Mitchell, Brink)
  11. bauermj
    11th-rder Riley Thompson signs w/@Cubs for $200k ($75k counts vs pool). Louisville RHP, redshirt sophomore, has reached 100 mph with fastball & can also flash plus curveball but also has TJ surgery in past & has been inconsistent. Intriguing arm. @MLBDraft
  12. bauermj
    Based on what? If there are public projection systems that get within +/- 10% for most of the eligible player pool I doubt the clubs are that in the dark.
  13. bauermj
    Take three seconds to see that four of your relievers had sub-3.00 ERA's in the regular season and then don't overreact like a ninny Aren't half of them free agents?
  14. bauermj
    Biggest names I saw: Davis, Holland, Reed, McGee (LHP), Morrow, Nicasio, Shaw, Kintzler, Romo, Cishek, Swarzak, Belisle, Minor (LHP), Watson (LHP)
  15. bauermj
    Some of the more interesting bullpen free agents: Davis, Holland, Addison Reed, Jake McGee (LHP) Brandon Morrow, Juan Nicasio, Brandon Kintzler, Bryan Shaw, Sergio Romo, Steve Cishek, Seung-hwan Oh, Anthony Swarzak, Matt Belisle, Mike Minor (LHP), Tony Watson (LHP) SP front is what, Jake, Darvish, Tanaka (likely), Cobb, Lynn, yikes...Cahill, Chacin, Fister, Sabathia, Tillman...
  16. bauermj
    Talk about an enjoyable game to watch as a Cubs fans. Hell yea!
  17. bauermj
    Kind of hard to tell but its a chat thread from social media where Willson sent unsolicited messages to a porn star over the course of 10 days so she decided to put him on blast.
  18. bauermj
    I would think Rosario is a guarantee, and Frankoff is a very good bet. After that I could see the logic for any number of guys as the 3rd. Perhaps 60-day DL for Rosario given he hasn't pitched since July & minor league season nearing end? I guess I wonder why add Leonys Martin if you have Jacob Hannemann? Cubs clearly felt a need to get Martin, makes me wonder why is Hannemann on 40-man? Perhaps its experience. Hannemann has turned it around since going to Iowa this year, would have liked to see him get a shot if he was so worth protecting last season from Rule 5.
  19. bauermj
    Ok so if Maples, Freeman, and Martin need to be added to the 40-man who is getting DFA'd? Need 3. Frankoff, Hannemann?, Rosario or Johnson?
  20. bauermj
    Oops, missed this thread. Cubs AZ Fall League participants: SP De la Cruz SP Mills RP Stinnett RP Araujo C Rice INF Vosler INF Bote OF Burks
  21. bauermj
    Cubs AZ Fall League participants: SP De la Cruz/Mills, RP Stinnett/Araujo, C Rice, INF Vosler/Bote, OF Burks
  22. bauermj
    And on cue Trevor Clifton 1IP 6H 0BB 5R(4ER) 2K
  23. bauermj
    Yea I'm starting to think so. I think you'd be hard pressed to stash a 23 year old that put up 4.1 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 35% GB at AA for a full year on the 25-man roster.
  24. bauermj
    Well the cost is that you have to waive someone on the 40 man roster. I don't think there are any obvious 60-day DL candidates, so is a start or two from Tseng (heard he was on an innings limit with 40 left before yesterdays start so ~34 IP left) worth losing Aaron Brooks or Seth Frankoff? Might be, but its a consideration.
  25. bauermj
    No, he was on 60-day DL. Brett Anderson is not on the Cubs 40-man roster. He was DFA'd. It's unclear if he will clear waivers still. He wasn't on the 40 man roster a month ago, either. He was on the 60-day DL, thus removed from the 40 man weeks ago. He was replaced by Seth Frankoff, so no the DFA did not clear space. Anderson will clear waivers if he hasn't already (who the hell will pick up the 1mil+ he is owed?) but it has no bearing on the 40 man roster.
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