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Burt Macklin, FBI

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Everything posted by Burt Macklin, FBI

  1. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Among qualified 3rd basemen: 4th is wRC+ and WAR 1st in BsR 7th in UZR/150 last in K%
  2. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Fangraphs has an interesting stat called clutch which details how much better/worse pitchers are in high leverage situations. Cubs are 16th in the majors, ie average. Woohoo! More fun...clutch has zero year-to-year correlation. Literally zero. In other words, the Cubs haven't been "unclutch", and more generally being "unclutch" in the past has no relationship with if you're "unclutch" in the future. Or, more simply, you're spouting nonsense.
  3. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Hahahaha I love it
  4. Burt Macklin, FBI
    nice Starlin!
  5. Burt Macklin, FBI
    do a good job do a good job do a good job
  6. Burt Macklin, FBI
    I'm not championing a sudden return to league average - my expectations are as damped as any by the last 2.5 years. From what we thought at the end of 2012 to where we are today is really, really disappointing. That said, there's a huge gulf between 'league average' and 'gaping black hole', and the data points to him moving safely away from the latter - even if you pessimistically cut the data off after 2012, he's averaged just under 1 WAR/year, and while that's hugely disappointing from the end-of-year-2012 vantage point, it's a useful player for the rest of the year, particularly considering his contract and the lack of a good replacement.
  7. Burt Macklin, FBI
    And I'm saying that is overstating it. The reasons to think he might not are just as strong. SS defense declines early, and his bat has been down as often as not post-2012. WAR, by half season, since 2011: 1.5, 1.3, 1.3, 1.8, .1, -.2, 1.7, .9, -.6. I just don't see how it's as likely as not that he stays anywhere near his -.6 pace. Yes, it sucks that his year has been terrible (and it's concerning because that's our most recent sample), but I think we have enough reasonable evidence that he can and has played better.
  8. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Who is saying that it is? The post immediately above that one, in which believing Castro would bounce back in the second half was described as "reasonably obvious." It's reasonably obvious that we have legitimate reasons to believe in a bounce back, not that Castro is guaranteed to bounce back.
  9. Burt Macklin, FBI
    MLB shortstops: .248/.298/.357/.655 MACKLIN, YOU SON OF A BITCH. so he is slightly above average with the bat... whats the mlb average defense metrics? uh huhh. Obviously you know better than to lean on less than half a season of defensive statistics and realize that over the last 3 years and change he grades out as "slightly below average" rather than the "worst in the league" that you're implying. A SS who is above average with the bat and slightly below average with the glove at $6 mil is perfectly valuable. No one is happy with his year so far; his first 380 PA count exactly as much as his next 380 will. The question that everyone except you is asking is "do we have a reason to think he'll return to being useful" and the answer is, in my opinion, a reasonably obvious yes.
  10. Burt Macklin, FBI
    MLB shortstops: .248/.298/.357/.655
  11. Burt Macklin, FBI
    And then this happened: Collin Ferguson hit by pitch. Brian Carroll singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ricardo Marcano. Collin Ferguson to 2nd. With Eric Toole batting, Collin Ferguson advances to 3rd on a balk. Brian Carroll advances to 2nd on a balk. With Eric Toole batting, wild pitch by Carson Sands, Collin Ferguson scores. Brian Carroll to 3rd. Sorry guys, that's on me.
  12. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Sands so far: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0/4 BB/K. http://media0.giphy.com/media/kai9NaIopYWe4/giphy.gif
  13. Burt Macklin, FBI
    uggg as quick as that ball got there I thought we had him at home for sure
  14. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Baby-est of baby steps... April: 36.3% K%, 62.6 contact% May: 29.6% K%, 70.7 contact%
  15. Burt Macklin, FBI
    http://media.giphy.com/media/iQA2hMPX88icM/giphy.gif
  16. Burt Macklin, FBI
    http://media.giphy.com/media/YucHVxk7WYIc8/giphy.gif
  17. Burt Macklin, FBI
    http://media3.giphy.com/media/12IvwVD4jd7CvK/giphy.gif
  18. Burt Macklin, FBI
    nevermind
  19. Burt Macklin, FBI
    WE CAN BABIP PEOPLE TO DEATH TOO
  20. Burt Macklin, FBI
    http://media.giphy.com/media/jMYLFgAU4GThm/giphy.gif
  21. Burt Macklin, FBI
    http://media0.giphy.com/media/CMvLdjfjQnQAg/giphy.gif
  22. Burt Macklin, FBI
    that FIP mixed with .360 babip equals a sub-replacement level pitcher who will lose you a fair amount of ballgames Replacement level FIP for NL relievers is like 4.4. Below average pitcher, absolutely. If you really think he's going to continue to get BABIP'd to death then maybe he's bordering on replacement level, but isn't that exactly what you should expect from the guy who signed a minor league deal and will probably spend most of the year back and forth with Iowa? Again, I'm not arguing he's a great pitcher (in fact the greatest compliment I've said is "probably above replacement level"), but for where he is on our bullpen depth chart, he's fine. It's almost like injuries have forced us to use schlitty relievers in high leverage situations. Pun intended, because Schlitter is at -.95 and single-handedly dragging us down horribly. Again, once we (hopefully) can stop doing that, things will be fine. Also, Coke is basically league average in WPA, so yay! Don't need to worry about him anymore.
  23. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Because their BABIPs are literally .500 and no predictive statistic could possibly expect that to continue? Coke's BABIP for the last 4 years is .360, worst in baseball no predictive statistic could expect 9.39 K/9 and 0 HR/9 to continue, either I have no intention of dying on the Phil-Coke-is-good hill, but even if you believe he's going to get hit harder than usual (which there's probably some truth to) and stick around .360, he's STILL 140 points higher than that right now. Even if we go back to his career numbers of 7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, you're looking at a 3.7 FIP, which is just fine for the 7th or 8th best guy in your bullpen.
  24. Burt Macklin, FBI
    Because their BABIPs are literally .500 and no predictive statistic could possibly expect that to continue?
  25. Burt Macklin, FBI
    5th in the majors in FIP 7th in the majors in WAR 8th in the majors in K% 5th in the majors in BB% Everyone is frustrated after last night but the bullpen will be fine, especially when Grimm is back and if Ramirez is alive.
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