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Burt Macklin, FBI

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Everything posted by Burt Macklin, FBI

  1. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: In general yes, but in this case I kind of get what he's saying. If we can credit Bryant with a few HRs-that-weren't because of the wind blowing in, his stats look much better. Of course he neglects that we would then need to debit the HRs-that-shouldn't-have-been because the wind was blowing out, and it just devolves into this whole big mess. It's much more reasonable to keep it simple: as hard as Bryant is hitting the ball, he should have more home runs than he does, so there are reasons to expect improvement.
  2. HR/FB home: 20.4% HR/FB away: 5.4%
  3. There are two sides to this slump. 1) We're seeing a guy who normally struggles to make contact REALLY struggling to make contact. Which is of course concerning, because that's a quick and dirty ticket back to the minors (see 2014 - Baez, Javier). But we're also seeing... 2) Bad luck. Bryant is still doing Bryant things - ie when he hits the ball, he hits it really hard. He's 24/188 in Hard% in July, at 40% (which is right in line with his May and June). This comes with a .214 BABIP, which everyone here knows is not going to stay that low. But his HR/FB is also low for how hard he's hitting the ball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-hard-hit-rate-means-for-batters/). If you want a quick and dirty estimate (professional statisticians look away now) you can pull that correlation and say his HR/FB should be more like 18%, which would give him 2 more homeruns on the month and push his line to .189/.288/.453/.741. So be terrified of the complete lack of contact. I am. But we're also seeing why Bryant is special - he may be one of the few players who can survive such a high K% because he just hits the ball so damn hard.
  4. July wRC+ of 69 did the trick :(
  5. When talking about busts from this group, the strikeout rates all around are concerning. It's just so hard to be a good player while striking out 30% of the time. I would put the bust potential like this: 1) Javy - Everyone is hopeful he's making some adjustments (myself included) but you can't discount last season in the majors either. 2) Soler - the strikeouts are up, the power is gone, his .375 BABIP suggests regression. If he can adjust his plate discipline, he'll be a good player. But that last sentence has been a eulogy to many, many players. 3) Schwarber - His strikeout rate is very reasonable for his power. His numbers are going to come down a bit as BABIP normalizes but they still should be very good. The question really comes down to where he can play defense. 4) Bryant - The K-rate is concerning, but he does enough well that I think his odds of busting are quite low. His K's and a potential move to LF may relatively limit his ceiling, however. 5) Russell - He's shown great adjustment so far in reducing his K's and increasing his walks every month. Plus, his defense is already excellent.
  6. I'm interested in that lineup, in that the first six (counting Russell) I'm interested in watching them maybe score runs, and then the next two I'm interested in begging them to get a hit so they can be good again.
  7. The overall results aren't quite there yet, but the peripherals are really coming around. I expect the hits will start to come soon and he'll have a really nice 2nd half. K% April (only 29 PA) 48.3% May 32.1% June 26.8% July 22.4% BB% April 3.4% May 6.6% June 9.3% July 11.8%
  8. http://media.giphy.com/media/lkK7hFTOp1s4g/giphy.gif
  9. Joey Gallo: 98 wRC+, 43.9% K%
  10. lol Padres http://grantland.com/features/aj-preller-mlb-san-diego-padres-national-league-west/ I knew those trades were bad but when you list it all out like that...brutal.
  11. 50. Jorge Soler 32. Addison Russell http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-30-to-21/ No Cubs in the 20s. Top twenty come the next two days which presumably includes Rizzo and Bryant.
  12. http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqm09mr6cd1r1syhfo1_500.png
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