Named After Maddux

The Cubs rankings are pretty fun that 2-11 on everyone’s lists are probably all different. I’ll throw out there that I have Triantos 8th on my personal list as of today. I still need to ask around about a few prospects, but that’s probably pretty close to where he’ll sit with my final ranking this winter. If you have him in your top 5, there’s nothing outrageous about it. I’ll be, almost assuredly the “high guy” on Kevin Made. I’ve used the Yorke comp before and others are now as well. It’s not unreasonable to see Triantos finish next year at Hi-A and in the latter part of a Top 100 this time next year. That’s the high end of projections, but the skills are there.

He’s a bit banged up, yeah. I don’t believe it’s anything serious, but that’s the reason.

Concerning the data: On the showcase circuit (which is where the 94% contact rate is from), Triantos had a 24% chase rate. For some reference, that 24% is in the same tier as Khalil Watson, Jordan Lawler, and Lonnie White. It’s better than Marcelo Mayer, Alex Mooney, and Brady House. Triantos’ chase rate was behind a few favorites like Harry Ford, Tyler Whitaker, Colson Montgomery. I’ve been told that the Cubs were most impressed with his actual scouting report. That’s what excited them and the data only helped to confirm their belief. There are never any guarantees, especially with a high school player, but there is a solid foundation that should help him adjust to pro pitching in my opinion. Comparable exit velocities too is what I remember. Yes, that’s correct. Comparable max exit velocities to Ford, Montgomery, Kinney, Stovall. I’m working on doing a deeper dive, but a lot of information is proprietary. The data above was hard to scrounge up as well, but I had someone who felt generous during the draft cycle. I think I should be able to get my hands on some cool data/info here in a couple weeks on a few of the Cubs draft prospects.

94% contact rate is other worldly. 1 miss every 20 swings. But how selective is he? Half of the top 10 in contact rate are average or below this season. They tend to put a lot of 'pitchers pitches' in play. This was my immediate concern with Vitters when we took him. The reports definitely painted a picture of a guy who could hit anything but would often times be better off waiting for his pitch.Concerning the data: On the showcase circuit (which is where the 94% contact rate is from), Triantos had a 24% chase rate. For some reference, that 24% is in the same tier as Khalil Watson, Jordan Lawler, and Lonnie White. It’s better than Marcelo Mayer, Alex Mooney, and Brady House. Triantos’ chase rate was behind a few favorites like Harry Ford, Tyler Whitaker, Colson Montgomery. I’ve been told that the Cubs were most impressed with his actual scouting report. That’s what excited them and the data only helped to confirm their belief. There are never any guarantees, especially with a high school player, but there is a solid foundation that should help him adjust to pro pitching in my opinion.

I haven’t seen one comment here about Avita’s brother, David, signing with the Cubs as an UDFA and if that has any meaning for him? I wouldn’t expect Daniel Avitia to sign. I was curious about that too. Maybe just laying the groundwork down the line though I have no information on that.

I’d expect signings shortly (as early as tomorrow from AZ). And the $200k player and another $125k HS should be signing this week. I hope that doesn’t come off too douchey; it’s just all I can say right now. Edit: “And”

toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs? I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs? I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense? So I believe that Triantos’ high school (Madison) is a 6A team and that’s the highest division. But what’s really exciting about Triantos is his performance against other big talent in the showcase circuit. He led all players with a 94% contact rate. Will Taylor was the only guy really close at 92%. For reference Harry Ford’s was 81% and that’s really good (Josh Baez was at 65%). He had a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and Colson Montgomery. His chase rate was ok at 23% (Lawler’s was 24%).

I’m a huge fan as well, but I’m very wary of Pacheco. That contact rate on the showcase circuit was a ghastly 54%. That’s data from 2020, but it’s one of the best equalizers in comparing HS players. But I am digging Lonnie White Jr., Jay Allen, Jackson Linn, Tyler Whitaker that are being linked to the team if the Cubs are looking at prep OF.

Good list Tom. Rocker, Watson, and Ford are all upper first round players to me. I’m definitely higher on Arroyo than most, but I still think a team could squint and see a first round caliber player there. Abbott as well probably should go high. I’ll be honest I’m not as high on Wicks or Jump. I’m just not a huge believer in the smallish LHP who are FB/CH. i didn’t see him spin as many quality breaking balls. Pipeline has the slider as a 55, Callis and company probably saw better ones than I did, but it didn’t inspire much confidence. Still a guy who should go high. He’s a quality LHP. I just don’t like the profile. Jump is metrically amazing, but I wonder if the Cubs are interested much. Talked to a scout in the organization who doesn’t feel like he’s a starter long term. He looks athletic enough to me, but with TB, LAD, SD, MIN picking right after, I dunno if the Cubs go there in the first. Mostly conjecture there admittedly. And Mason loves Jump. He’s one of his favorite players in the last couple draft classes. I wasn’t surprised when he was his Prospects Live pick. He’s also higher on Christian Franklin than most. He wanted me to pick Franklin for the Cubs in the second round of that draft.

Of that is not the comp I wanted to see Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Named After Maddux probably has better info on McAvene and Riley Thompson. Hopefully he sees this and can add any color he knows. Brailyn is listed as on the Developmental List which means he's actually working in the lab and not rehabbing. I'll just mention a bit. McAvene has a serious arm injury. No surgery last I heard, but it was significant. And that's a massive bummer since he's already a TJS survivor and was a probable reliever already. I hope that he gets a chance to just let it eat out of the pen. I don't have a ton of info on Thompson, but it sounds like he'll be playing in about month.

Hey, thanks for sharing. I also wanted to put it out there that I get that the first thing most of us do with a new mock is to critique it. I know I do. Unlike Baseball America or Jim Callis, I've been a poster here, but feel free to tear into this one if you'd like. I've had some good feedback from scouts and analysts since I put it out there a couple days ago that helps me with the next one (late June/July), but it's ok to think some of the picks are wonky.

At this point it’s probably out there enough to discuss that Yovanny Cruz was hurt in his last spring training outing. He underwent surgery today (posted it on his Instagram). I’m not sure what surgery it was, but I suspect TJ. He had a forearm issue come up in that last outing. Before that Cruz was firing bullets all camp. Hopefully he comes back healthy.

A college RH?! So two years ago Cubs pass on Ford in this mock, Joe Mack is the first HS C off the board, de Castillo doesn’t go until pick 20 to the Yankees, other stuff McGreevy sounds like a Cleveland Baseball Team pick. He does fit Cleveland’s MO. But there’s people in the Cubs org that are pounding the table for McGreevy. I’m still surprised it’s in round one, but he’s been impressing a lot of teams.

I spoke with Myrtle Beach Pelicans catcher Pablo Aliendo and even he didn't know who was pitching today for MB. Maybe only Buddy Bailey knows! Also thank you Raisin! I have missed these threads.

The stuff in there about Ed Howard and Cam Sanders sounds fun too. Later in Spring camp, Sanders was holding velocity and stuff for five innings. Bain was similarly impressive but stuff started to fall off in the third. I’m paraphrasing, but a Cubs exec believes they’ve struck gold on those guys and thinks they’re Top 10 organizational prospects at the end of this season. Also I know AZ Phil mentioned Gallardo relieving, but it didn’t sound like that was in the long-term plans.

I would not be too concerned about Marquez. I heard he’s behind schedule mostly due to COVID precaution delays and an abbreviated spring camp. Sounds like he’ll be in Tennessee soon.

Yeah, if Rizzo is extended, and one (or more) of these bat-first catchers develops well, they'll likely have a ready in-house replacement for him depending on the length of the extension. Also, with the electronic strike zone becoming more and more likely over the coming seasons, bat first catchers will definitely be in high demand. The list keeps growing: Ethan Hearn (20) Ronnier Quintero (18) Brayan Altuve (18) Moises Ballesteros (17) Adan Sanchez (15, will be 16 at signing) With the DH seeming likely to be added too, that's another slot for a bat first catcher. It’s like the black box/airplane joke: why don’t they just build the whole line-up out of bat-first catchers?

“You bet, partner” Ron has been trying to warn us the whole time

The mocked Joe Mack to the Cubs at 21. I prefer Ford to Mack, but both are prep catchers with significant upside. I like Mack a lot as well. He’s got plus power (more pull side) right now and he’s got a strong accurate arm. If we’re being honest, I think BA didn’t want to have the exact same player mocked to the team that far into the draft. This mock was specifically designed to be a bit chaotic by Carlos Collazo. It would be a mix of BA and picks by a scout, but Collazo designed it so the Pirates wouldn’t take Leiter. It was BA who had the Cubs selection. I think they just picked the other first-round worthy HS C.

Duncan Robinson is retiring

Nice Very good to see. It also makes it even more encouraging that DJ Herz learned his curveball from Chris Clarke. No guarantee it turns into a 65 grade, but not a bad guy to learn from.

I’ve operated under a belief for a few years that Ryan Pace is really excellent at identifying talent, especially in later rounds, but he has a serious blindspot w/ QBs. At some point that makes sense. A lot of his training prior to this position was in New Orleans where they had a Hall of Fame QB entrenched in Brees. That’s not to absolve him. A football QB is the single most important position relative to the game of any major sport. So a blindspot there is pretty massive issue. Unless I hear the Bears separate their decision-making in the draft room so that Pace isn’t the leading voice on QBs, I’m going to be pretty apprehensive going into this draft.

lol I decided it wasn't newsworthy enough....got flashbacks to finding little pieces of info about like brian roberts. i should have kept it, thanks for reposting I won’t get my hopes up on Wilson until I hear he’s leading a rendition of Bear Down, Chicago Bears in a karaoke bar.

Thanks for that Tom. That’s interesting. I guess Max Bain has some seam shifted wake on his cutter (and not a 2-seam/sinker). He gave the go ahead that I could share. He’s just such an intriguing guy this year. If anyone is really interested in Max, Bryan Smith is doing more of a deep dive on him soon. I can’t wait to read it personally.