Named After Maddux

Big draft for Billy Swoope. He and NE Crosschecker, Matt Sherman, tag-teamed on Matt Shaw. Billy also had Carico and Hope like you mentioned. Then cleaned house with Trice, Armstrong, Brown, and Dean. Like you said it’s clear Billy and Ty are such respected names in the room. ”Electric” and “sharp” were the descriptors passed along about how Wiggins looked this fall. Obviously that could just be talk but hey I’m intrigued if they feel like the command took a step forward. Oh well, regardless just glad they signed him. That was getting interesting there if Wiggins camp was going to really walk away from $1.4M.

Even more than that, the Cubs area scout who recommended the pick has been following Jaxon for years before during his high school career. He looked electric this fall. We’ll see how it all turns out but they took a swing on upside that was at least founded in a long history with the player.

They are from my understanding. It would be pick 69 next season, which will make for a lot of "nice" interjections

Won't speculate too much, but worth checking out the picture of Flanagan that he posted. Unfortunately might explain lost leverage.

Confirmed with the scout that signed him that Rosario is 6'2"

Probably a tad more than Rosario's slot ($325k) for Zyhir Hope. Maybe a clean $400k when all is said and done.

Worth pointing out that Davis made significantly worse contact than Schanuel (73% to 87%) and chase rate and EV about even. Davis also performed poorly with wood bats. I don’t dislike Davis, but just thinking about how the Cubs value hit tool, I’d be a bit more surprised. I can understand Schanuel, especially if you could get him for $4 million ($800k under slot).

I’m guessing it ultimately is a hitter, but hard to imagine they’d pass Dollander or Lowder (really unlikely to be there). Good bevy of hitters in both college (Brayden Taylor, Schanuel, JGon) and (Aidan Miller, Colt Emerson, Arjun Nimmala) who could be there. Lots of good talent.

It was exit velocities entering the season. They were pretty low, but this season has been different. He sacrificed contact for drive earlier in the year. In the last few weeks, Taylor has brought the qualities together. He doesn’t chase, his in-zone contact has improved, and he’s still driving the ball. This year he’s taken his avg EVs from 87 to 91 mph. Big difference.

Raisin law in this country, it's not governed by reason

Good mock, Jeremy. FYI, Colin Houck had offers to play QB from eight programs (including Arkansas and Florida State), but he committed to Mississippi State only to play baseball. Still will require a decent bonus I'd imagine to beat out SEC NIL money.

Huge fan of Nimmala. I’m still a shade skeptical that he makes it to 13, but Joe’s mock lays a path. Both the Angels and Diamondbacks have been traveling in mass to meet with preps, especially shortstops. A guy that I’ve heard teams like a lot is Adrian Santana and I’ve been surprised to see him mocked later. Mocks aren’t everything, but I’ve heard more like a top 15 guy than a late first/Comp A/second round guy that I see him listed as most places. He’s a switch hitter and a sure shortstop. He’s showing in-game power from both sides. It’s a profile that gets people excited. Very possible that three of Nimmala, Santana, Colt Emerson, Houck, and Walker Martin along with some college guys (Shaw, in particular, and then Troy) are all sitting there at 13. If that’s the case I don’t have an idea yet on how they’d navigate it. I do think they’ll lean towards some upside, but you could parse that a few ways. I entered the year thinking if Nimmala is there he’d be the most likely pick. Hope that happens.

Appreciate it, folks! Mitchell is great. I've been very impressed with him. One thing to note on data is that it's really difficult to dig for with the high schoolers. I have Colin Houck with multiple hits (at least one HR) in the 103-105 mph range. He had a huge turnout at a recent double header. I won't specifically call out the teams, but high level execs from 5+ organizations. I've had feedback that Colt Emerson is pretty great as well. I think he'll ultimately go higher than people think right now. He only went lower in this mock because Seattle "bought him down". Honestly feel good naming him in my preseason top 10. That's another guy you might like Tom. He turns 18 a week or so after the draft this summer.

Yeah I’m not sure I’d argue that Horton wasn’t that much of a prospect prior to his ascension last year. He absolutely was. 2020 was an insane year in general like we all know but we’re definitely still feeling the effects of it even in the tiny niche of the MLB draft. With the weird draft we saw a bunch of preps make it to campus. Prior to COVID, Kantrovitz had a visit with Horton and his family at their house. He had a strong offer to go to Oklahoma as a two-sport guy. I definitely get how folks look at the pick as a reach but from what I’ve gathered that’s not how it was viewed by teams. Even if the Cubs didn’t take him at 7, he was going top 10 (someone also said top 11). I think Horton made the right decision to sign. Sounds like he had a strong offer from Oklahoma to return, but he’d be right in that Hurston Waldrep zone for me in the draft (7-12). It’s also a draft with a lot more depth in pitching and he might have been pushed down just for that reason. if you like Ferris better, that’s totally cool. He’s a lefthander with a lot of ceiling. Sounds like Noah Schultz was another player they were having conversations with for an overslot pick at 47. He just got scooped by the White Sox. Not sure how they would have gone if Schultz and Ferris were both there. I thought both were late first rounders. Again the 2022 draft merits scrutiny. They need to have gotten the process right, just feels like from folks around that they took the right swings. We’ll see if it plays out that way.

My only critique is that it feels arbitrary. Callis saw Horton this spring, said he looked great, and was a top 100 guy for him. Prospects Live had Horton on their Top 100. If Hodge, Wicks, and Brown (according to Phil) are looking even better, that's good, no? The 2022 draft merits a lot of scrutiny. They took big swings and I'd have been fine going elsewhere at 7 (Neto, Collier), but if Horton does what he should and is still down in the pecking order I feel great about that. Watch out for Brandon Birdsell, btw.

I can't speak on specifics (and I don't know all the details), but I believe Leeper may have had a significant injury.

So I'm not sure this is official or decided, but heard Jensen might not be in Iowa. Guessing it's Kilian, Sampson, Thompson, Neidert, then it still leaves one more. Perhaps Ben Brown? Not sure yet on that one.

Riley Thompson earned an ICubs rotation spot. He made a lot of progress over the winter so that's pretty cool.

I could see all of this happen, though I'm hoping it's because Wicks is working to exhaust his rookie eligibility by that time.

Not incredibly strong, but some of that was that I hadn't followed-up enough during the spring. Both Paciolla and Red Sox future pick Roman Anthony had a staggering combination of poor results in showcases where I had data. Between whiffs and chases, they were far and away the worst performers amongst the top prospects in the class (whiff/chass combo close to 50%). While I do buy into showcase circuit data I should have followed up more on both, especially when I heard that scouts were big in on Anthony. Cubs area scout Evan Kauffman is well-respected and he stayed on Paciolla all spring. I've heard the Cubs were very high on him and (I believe this is out there) they viewed him similarly to Mikey Romero. That's a very interesting comp and one I wouldn't think of, but both paciolla and Romero play fairly close by each other so that's probably part of it. More of a summary, but I'm pretty sure I was too low on Paciolla. Data from the year before isn't the end-all be-all and I somewhat wrote him off early, especially with his UCLA commitment. To get CP in the third round for what they did was a really solid pull. He's a guy that gets buzz.

Lowder isn’t my favorite profile either, but the Cubs picking him wouldn’t be a surprise. Wish Nimmala was more of a candidate to be available at 13. I’d be shocked to see him reach pick 14. Oh, I absolutely agree on both counts. Lowder is very Wicks-esque to me, but from the right side. And Nimmala is the guy I am setting myself up for disappointment with. I do it every year. Wicks is a pretty good comp there although Lowder has at least been bumping 97s early in starts. He sat at a 93 mph average last season with his four-seam and that's a good tick or so better than Wicks in 2021. Lowder might be more consistently 94s when all is said and done. But yeah I want more upside and right now I'd prefer one of the HS shortstops (Nimmala likely out of range, but Colin Houck - man the reports are strong - Colt Emerson, Walker Martin, and Roch Cholowsky all could be 1st round plays) or Blake Mitchell. I lean prep with this class with where the Cubs are picking unless someone surprising falls. Tanner Witt is a wild card right now. He could be throwing for teams by June or early July and middle of the first round bonus money is when teams have historically taken chances on TJS guys. He has frontline potential.

McGonigle 14, Morales 18, Eldridge 21, Nimmala 23. Oof. No thanks. Lowder isn’t my favorite profile either, but the Cubs picking him wouldn’t be a surprise. Wish Nimmala was more of a candidate to be available at 13. I’d be shocked to see him reach pick 14.

It really could be this year. Cam Johnson and Charlee Soto both show some really crazy stuff. Most years the top prep arm is popped right around where the Cubs are picking and it would be a fun follow in the minors. I’d say the other demographic to watch is the high school shortstops. Colin Houck, Cooper Pratt are guys who look like middle of the first type players. It’s a fantastic demographic and I like both of those guys to be more offensive SS profiles versus Ed Howard in 2020. I’m a big fan of going prep at 13 overall knowing that a comp pick B is tricky to overslot there. I dunno though. Rhett Lowder fits the mold of a Cubs pick and while I rank him high I’m not sure that’s profile that gets me amped up right now. Just really hoping for an upside play or a college bat to fall for no real reason.

Thanks gents! That was a fun one.

Thompson was the deepest dive, but Palencia, Noland, McCullough, and Luke Little were the others featured I’ll have an update on Riley Thompson tomorrow! He worked out at Eric Cressey’s pitching center this winter. Good stuff that gives him a chance. Oh fun! I'm excited to see that.